Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting

Author : André Gensler
Publisher : kassel university press GmbH
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2019-01-16
Category : Weights and measures
ISBN : 9783737606363

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Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting by André Gensler Pdf

This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.

Author : André Gensler
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 3737606374

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Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting by André Gensler Pdf

Author : Ümit Cali
Publisher : kassel university press GmbH
Page : 174 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9783862190317

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Grid and Market Integration of Large-Scale Wind Farms Using Advanced Wind Power Forecasting: Technical and Energy Economic Aspects by Ümit Cali Pdf

Author : Corinna Möhrlen,John W. Zack,Gregor Giebel
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 390 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2022-11-12
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780443186820

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IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions by Corinna Möhrlen,John W. Zack,Gregor Giebel Pdf

Published as an Open Access book available on Science Direct, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions translates decades of academic knowledge and standard requirements into applicable procedures and decision support tools for the energy industry. Designed specifically for practitioners in the energy industry, readers will find the tools to maximize the value of renewable energy forecast information in operational decision-making applications and significantly reduce the costs of integrating large amounts of wind and solar generation assets into grid systems through more efficient management of the renewable generation variability. Authored by a group of international experts as part of the IEA Wind Task 36 (Wind Energy Forecasting), the book addresses the issue that many current operational forecast solutions are not properly optimized for their intended applications. It provides detailed guidelines and recommended practices on forecast solution selection processes, designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, forecast solution evaluation, verification, and validation, and meteorological and power data requirements for real-time forecasting applications. In addition, the guidelines integrate probabilistic forecasting, integrate wind and solar forecasting, offer improved IT data exchange and data format standards, and have a dedicated section to dealing with the requirements for SCADA and meteorological measurements. A unique and comprehensive reference, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions is an essential guide for all practitioners involved in wind and solar energy generation forecasting from forecast vendors to end-users of renewable forecasting solutions. Brings together the decades-long expertise of authors from a range of backgrounds, including universities and government laboratories, commercial forecasters, and operational forecast end-users into a single comprehensive set of practices Addresses all areas of wind power forecasting, including forecasting methods, measurement selection, setup and data quality control, and the evaluation of forecasting processes related to renewable energy forecasting Provides purpose-built decision-support tools, process diagrams, and code examples to help readers visualize and navigate the book and support decision-making

Author : Alberto Troccoli,Laurent Dubus,Sue Ellen Haupt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 528 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781461492214

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Weather Matters for Energy by Alberto Troccoli,Laurent Dubus,Sue Ellen Haupt Pdf

It is the purpose of this book to provide the meteorological knowledge and tools to improve the risk management of energy industry decisions, ranging from the long term finance and engineering planning assessments to the short term operational measures for scheduling and maintenance. Most of the chapters in this book are based on presentations given at the inaugural International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM), held in the Gold Coast, Australia, 8-11 November 2011. The main aim of the conference was to strengthen the link between Energy and Meteorology, so as to make meteorological information more relevant to the planning and operations of the energy sector. The ultimate goal would be to make the best use of weather and climate data in order to achieve a more efficient use of energy sources. This book seeks to realise the same objective.

Author : Matthias Lange,Ulrich Focken
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2006-01-16
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783540311065

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Physical Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction by Matthias Lange,Ulrich Focken Pdf

The effective integration of wind energy into the overall electricity supply is a technical and economical challenge because the availability of wind power is determined by fluctuating meteorological conditions. This book offers an approach to the ultimate goal of the short-term prediction of the power output of winds farms. Starting from basic aspects of atmospheric fluid dynamics, the authors discuss the structure of winds fields, the available forecast systems and the handling of the intrinsic, weather-dependent uncertainties in the regional prediction of the power generated by wind turbines. This book addresses scientists and engineers working in wind energy related R and D and industry, as well as graduate students and nonspecialists researchers in the fields of atmospheric physics and meteorology.

Author : Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
Page : 386 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780081005057

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Renewable Energy Forecasting by Georges Kariniotakis Pdf

Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications

Author : Antonio Bracale,Pasquale De Falco
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2020-03-10
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783039283125

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Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems by Antonio Bracale,Pasquale De Falco Pdf

Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.

Author : Melih Kurt
Publisher : kassel university press GmbH
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2017-01-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9783737603461

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Development of an Offshore Specific Wind Power Forecasting System by Melih Kurt Pdf

This study explains the data preparation processes, plausibility checking of meteorological parameters, correction of met-mast wind speed, and also the determination of the nominal power of a wind farm using met-mast measurements. The wind speed correction of met-mast FINO1 is evaluated from the perspective of power produced by alpha ventus by using uncorrected and corrected measurements from this met-mast. Afterwards this data is used for the determination of nominal power for alpha ventus.

Author : Pengwei Du,Ross Baldick,Aidan Tuohy
Publisher : Springer
Page : 337 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2017-05-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319555812

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Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy into Bulk Power Systems by Pengwei Du,Ross Baldick,Aidan Tuohy Pdf

This book outlines the challenges that increasing amounts of renewable and distributed energy represent when integrated into established electricity grid infrastructures, offering a range of potential solutions that will support engineers, grid operators, system planners, utilities, and policymakers alike in their efforts to realize the vision of moving toward greener, more secure energy portfolios. Covering all major renewable sources, from wind and solar, to waste energy and hydropower, the authors highlight case studies of successful integration scenarios to demonstrate pathways toward overcoming the complexities created by variable and distributed generation.

Author : Brendan Fox,Damian Flynn,Leslie Bryans,Institution of Electrical Engineers
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING
ISBN : 1680153455

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Wind Power Integration by Brendan Fox,Damian Flynn,Leslie Bryans,Institution of Electrical Engineers Pdf

The book attempts to provide a solid grounding in all significant aspects of wind power integration for engineers in a variety of disciplines. Thus a mechanical engineer will learn sufficient electrical power engineering to understand wind farm voltage regulation and fault ride-through problems; while an electrical engineer will benefit from the treatment of wind turbine aerodynamics. They will both wish to understand electricity markets, and in particular how wind energy is likely to fare. The introductory chapter charts the remarkable growth of wind energy since 1990. The various technical options for wind power extraction are outlined. This chapter then goes on to describe the potential problems of large-scale wind integration, and outlines some possible solutions. The second chapter is essentially an electrical power engineering primer, which will enable non-electrical engineers to cope with the concepts presented in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 3 deals with wind turbine generator technology, with particular attention being paid to current variable-speed designs. Chapter 4 is concerned with wind farm connection, and the implications for network design - an area lacking an established methodology to deal with variable generation. Chapter 5 addresses the key issue of power system operation in the presence of largely unpredictable wind power with limited scope for control. Energy storage provides a tempting solution; the treatment here concentrates on realistic, low-cost options and imaginative use of existing pumped storage plant. The importance of wind power forecasting is emphasised, and forms the main theme of Chapter 6. The encouraging progress in the last decade is described. Ensemble forecasting offers a useful operational tool, not least by providing the system operator with an indication of forecast reliability. Finally, Chapter 7 summarises the main types of electricity market, and discusses the prospects for wind power trading. The main renewable energy support schemes are explained and discussed.

Author : Mathew Sathyajith,Geeta Susan Philip
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2011-04-29
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9783540882589

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Advances in Wind Energy Conversion Technology by Mathew Sathyajith,Geeta Susan Philip Pdf

With an annual growth rate of over 35%, wind is the fastest growing energy source in the world today. As a result of intensive research and developmental efforts, the technology of generating energy from wind has significantly changed during the past five years. The book brings together all the latest aspects of wind energy conversion technology - right from the wind resource analysis to grid integration of the wind generated electricity. The chapters are contributed by academic and industrial experts having vast experience in these areas. Each chapter begins with an introduction explaining the current status of the technology and proceeds further to the advanced lever to cater for the needs of readers from different subject backgrounds. Extensive bibliography/references appended to each chapter give further guidance to the interested readers.

Author : Brendan Fox
Publisher : IET
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2007-06-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780863414497

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Wind Power Integration by Brendan Fox Pdf

This essential book examines the main problems of wind power integration and guides the reader through a number of the most recent solutions based on current research and operational experience of wind power integration.

Author : João P. S. Catalão
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 462 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2017-12-19
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781439893968

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Electric Power Systems by João P. S. Catalão Pdf

Electric Power Systems: Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Optimal Generation Scheduling helps readers develop their skills in modeling, simulating, and optimizing electric power systems. Carefully balancing theory and practice, it presents novel, cutting-edge developments in forecasting and scheduling. The focus is on understanding and solving pivotal problems in the management of electric power generation systems. Methods for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk in Electric Power Generation Outlining real-world problems, the book begins with an overview of electric power generation systems. Since the ability to cope with uncertainty and risk is crucial for power generating companies, the second part of the book examines the latest methods and models for self-scheduling, load forecasting, short-term electricity price forecasting, and wind power forecasting. Toward Optimal Coordination between Hydro, Thermal, and Wind Power Using case studies, the third part of the book investigates how to achieve the most favorable use of available energy sources. Chapters in this section discuss price-based scheduling for generating companies, optimal scheduling of a hydro producer, hydro-thermal coordination, unit commitment with wind generators, and optimal optimization of multigeneration systems. Written in a pedagogical style that will appeal to graduate students, the book also expands on research results that are useful for engineers and researchers. It presents the latest techniques in increasingly important areas of power system operations and planning.

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2018-05-17
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128122488

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner Pdf

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner