2017 External Sector Report

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2017 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments

International Working Group on External Debt Statistics,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
2017 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments Book PDF

Author : International Working Group on External Debt Statistics,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 69 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-07-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498346603

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2017 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments by International Working Group on External Debt Statistics,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology and Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report for a discussion of more recent refinements). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis. Since estimates are subject to uncertainty, overall assessments are presented in ranges. The external sector assessments are based on data and IMF staff projections as of June 15th, 2017. The external assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position.[1] The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.

2017 External Sector Report

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
2017 External Sector Report Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2017-07-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498346597

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2017 External Sector Report by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016, with minor shifts adding to the reconfiguration under way since 2013. The fall in commodity prices, uneven cyclical recoveries in systemic economies, and differences in policy responses contributed to the rotation of imbalances. Current account surpluses of oil-exporting economies, as a group, shifted from large surpluses to small deficits, while deficits in emerging and developing economies narrowed markedly. At the same time, surpluses and deficits in key advanced economies widened. These trends were generally supported by real exchange rate movements. Overall excess current account imbalances (i.e., deficits or surpluses that deviate from desirable levels) represented about one-third of total global imbalances in 2016, remaining broadly unchanged since 2013, although increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. In particular, excess imbalances narrowed in emerging and developing economies, led by a smaller excess surplus in China and smaller excess deficits in others (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey). This narrowing, however, was accompanied by a widening of excess imbalances in some advanced economies. The persistence of large excess surpluses in several advanced economies (e.g. Germany, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, Sweden) remains a distinguishing feature of the constellation of imbalances, an issue that is explored in greater detail in this year’s report. Persistent global excess imbalances suggest that automatic adjustment mechanisms are weak. While the rotation of excess imbalances toward advanced economies—with deficits increasingly concentrated in the United States and United Kingdom—likely entails lower deficit-financing risks in the near term, the increased concentration of deficits in a few economies carries greater risks of disruptive trade policy actions. Diverging stock positions coupled with continued overreliance on demand from debtor countries could also pose risks to global growth and raise the likelihood of disruptive adjustments down the road. With nearly-closed output gaps in most systemic economies, addressing external imbalances in a growth-friendly fashion requires a recalibration of the policy mix in deficit and surplus economies alike. Excess deficit countries should move forward with fiscal consolidation, while gradually normalizing monetary policy in tandem with inflation developments. Excess surplus economies with fiscal space should reduce their reliance on easy monetary policy and allow for greater fiscal stimulus. Where monetary policy is constrained from playing a role, as in individual euro area members, fiscal and structural policies to facilitate relative price adjustments should take priority. Meanwhile, structural policies in excess surplus countries should focus on lifting distortions that constrain domestic demand or limit trade competition; while in excess deficit economies, policies should be directed to improving external competitiveness and overall saving. Protectionist and mercantilist policies should be avoided as they are detrimental to global growth.

External Sector Report, July 2018

International Monetary Fund
External Sector Report July 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 147 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-07-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484367360

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External Sector Report, July 2018 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

External Sector Report, July 2018

International Monetary Fund
External Sector Report July 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2018-07-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484370469

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External Sector Report, July 2018 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

External Sector Report 2022

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
External Sector Report 2022 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2022-08-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400214943

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External Sector Report 2022 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

Global current account balances—the overall size of current account deficits and surpluses—continued to widen in 2021 to 3.5 percent of world GDP, and are expected to widen again this year. The IMF’s multilateral approach suggests that global excess balances narrowed to 0.9 percent of world GDP in 2021 compared with 1.2 percent of world GDP in 2020. The pandemic has continued to affect economies’ current account balances unevenly through the travel and transportation sectors as well as a shift from services to goods consumption. Commodity prices recovered from the COVID-19 shock and started rising in 2021 with opposite effects on the external position of exporters and importers, a trend that the war in Ukraine is exacerbating in 2022. The medium-term outlook for global current account balances is a gradual narrowing as the impact of the pandemic fades away, commodity prices normalize, and fiscal consolidation in current account deficit economies progresses. However, this outlook is highly uncertain and subject to several risks. Policies to promote external rebalancing differ with positions and needs of individual economies.

External Sector Report, 2020

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
External Sector Report 2020 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 114 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-08-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513549019

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External Sector Report, 2020 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2019, external developments during the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for responding to the crisis and for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes the relationship between the structure of external assets and liabilities—the components of the international investment position—and the risk of external stress events. It also assesses how heightened global risk aversion, as during the COVID-19 crisis, amplifies these risks. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of July 15, 2020.

External Sector Report, July 2019

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
External Sector Report July 2019 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2019-07-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498322751

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External Sector Report, July 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The IMF’s 2019 External Sector Report shows that global current account balances stand at about 3 percent of global GDP. Of this, about 35–45 percent are now deemed excessive. Meanwhile, net credit and debtor positions are at historical peaks and about four times larger than in the early 1990s. Short-term financing risks from the current configuration of external imbalances are generally contained, as debtor positions are concentrated in reserve-currency-issuing advanced economies. An intensification of trade tensions or a disorderly Brexit outcome—with further repercussions for global growth and risk aversion—could, however, affect other economies that are highly dependent on foreign demand and external financing. With output near potential in most systemic economies, a well-calibrated macroeconomic and structural policy mix is necessary to support rebalancing. Recent trade policy actions are weighing on global trade flows, investment, and growth, including through confidence effects and the disruption of global supply chains, with no discernible impact on external imbalances thus far.

Pilot External Sector Report

International Monetary Fund
Pilot External Sector Report Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-02-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340281

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Pilot External Sector Report by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This Pilot External Sector Report (ESR) provides a multilaterally consistent analysis of the external positions of major world economies. Following the recommendations of the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review and the Managing Director’s Statement on Strengthening Surveillance, the focus of the analysis has been broadened beyond exchange rates to detailed examinations of current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. It draws upon the Research Department’s past and new methods for assessing current accounts and real exchange rates (see Appendix I), and on previous IMF analytical work on exchange rates, capital flows and measures, and reserves adequacy.

External Sector Report 2021

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
External Sector Report 2021 Book PDF

Author : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513576671

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External Sector Report 2021 by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Pdf

Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2020, external developments throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes how the unprecedented fiscal support provided in response to the COVID-19 crisis has affected external positions at the individual and global level. It also focuses on how withdrawal of such support will impact external positions in the medium term. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of June 30, 2021.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2018

International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2018-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484373453

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International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2018 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The past year was one of growing economic anxiety tied to skepticism about both economic integration and an international approach to economic policy making. To help make globalization work for all, the IMF focused on providing policy advice in many macro-critical areas.

Republic of Uzbekistan

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Republic of Uzbekistan Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2018-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484385289

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Republic of Uzbekistan by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Pdf

At the request of the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities for technical assistance (TA) on external sector statistics (ESS), and with the support of the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a mission from the IMF Statistics Department (STA) visited Tashkent from November 20 through December 1, 2017. This was the first TA mission on ESS since the Republic of Uzbekistan Presidential Order of September 12, 2017, “On Measures to Ensure the Accessibility and Openness of Economic and Financial Data for the Republic of Uzbekistan” was issued.

Montenegro

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Montenegro Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2018-12-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484388228

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Montenegro by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Pdf

To support the compilation of external sector statistics (ESS) in Montenegro, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission during December 4–15, 2017. The mission was requested by the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM), the main ESS compiling agency, and supported by the IMF’s European Department. STA’s mission for the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS) during June 28-July 4, 2017 also suggested TA for Montenegro to start compiling international investment position (IIP) and external debt statistics (EDS). The mission focused on assisting the CBM in preparing IIP, EDS, Reserves Data Template (RDT), and addressing persistent net errors and omissions. Compilation of IIP and EDS is required to be qualified for Threshold 2 of the e-GDDS. Montenegro does not participate in the Eurosystem, but it is fully eurorized. Euro circulating in Montenegro should be included in the assets of the IIP for Montenegro, but difficulty in estimating the amount had been preventing the CBM from compiling IIP for several years.

2016 External Sector Report

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
2016 External Sector Report Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2016-01-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498345545

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2016 External Sector Report by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department Pdf

After narrowing in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and remaining broadly unchanged in recent years, global imbalances increased moderately in 2015, amid a reconfiguration of current accounts and exchange rates. Shifts in 2015 were driven primarily by the uneven strength of the recovery in advanced economies, the redistributive effects of the sharp fall in commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs). A relatively stronger U.S. outlook led to a further appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the yen and the euro. The sharp decline in commodity prices, reflecting both supply shocks and concerns about rebalancing and growth in China, brought about a significant redistribution of income from commodity exporters to importers, and a weakening of commodity exporters’ currencies. Meanwhile, heightened global risk aversion, contributed to softer capital inflows and depreciation pressures in many EMs. This moderate widening of current account imbalances was largely driven by systemic economies. Surpluses in Japan, the euro area and China grew, supported by improved terms of trade and currency depreciation, while the current account deficit in the U.S. widened amid the steep appreciation of the USD. These widening imbalances were only partially offset by narrowing surpluses in large oil exporters and smaller deficits in vulnerable EMs and some euro area debtor countries. Similarly, excess imbalances expanded in 2015. External positions in the U.S. and Japan moved from being broadly in line with fundamentals to being “moderately weaker” and “moderately stronger”, respectively. This was partly offset by a further narrowing of excess deficits in vulnerable EMs and euro area debtor countries. Meanwhile, excess surpluses persisted among the larger surplus countries, some of which remain “substantially stronger” than fundamentals (Germany, Korea). Currency movements since end-2015 helped to partially reverse the trends observed last year, although market volatility following the result of the U.K. referendum to leave the European Union have led to a strengthening of the USD and yen along with a weakening of the sterling, euro, and EM currencies. The implications for external assessments going forward, especially for the U.K. and the euro area, remains uncertain and will likely depend on how the transition is managed and on what new arrangements are adopted. With output below potential in most countries, and limited policy space in many, balancing internal and external objectives will require careful policy calibration. In general, a more balanced policy mix that avoids excessive reliance on policies with significant demanddiverting effects is necessary, with greater emphasis on demand-supportive measures and structural reforms. Surplus countries with fiscal space have a greater role to play in supporting global demand while reducing external imbalances. Global collective policy action, especially if downside risks materialize, would also help address global demand weakness while mitigating its effects on external imbalances.

United Kingdom-Anguilla-British Overseas Territory

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
United Kingdom Anguilla British Overseas Territory Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 9 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2018-11-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484384879

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United Kingdom-Anguilla-British Overseas Territory by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Pdf

A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted in The Valley, Anguilla, during March 27–31, 2017. This was the first mission to Anguilla carried out as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on external sector statistics (ESS) and in response to requests from the Anguilla Statistics Department (ASD) of Anguilla’s Ministry of Finance, Economic Development, Commerce, Tourism, Land & Physical Planning (MFED).1 The purpose of the mission was to assist the ASD in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of ESS. This is intended to facilitate a robust assessment of external sector developments and policy impact. Reliable ESS are essential for informed economic policy-making by the authorities.

The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns

Gustavo Adler,Daniel Garcia-Macia
The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns Book PDF

Author : Gustavo Adler,Daniel Garcia-Macia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2018-04-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484349922

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The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns by Gustavo Adler,Daniel Garcia-Macia Pdf

With the rapid growth of countries' foreign asset and liability positions over the last two decades, financial returns on those positions ('NFA returns') have become material drivers of current accounts and net stock positions. This paper documents the relative importance of NFA return versus trade channels in driving NFA dynamics, for a sample of 52 economies over 1990-2015. While persistent trade imbalances have been a strong force leading to diverging NFA positions, NFA returns have played an important stabilizing role, mitigating NFA divergence. The stabilizing role of NFA returns primarily reflects the response of asset prices, rather than yield differentials or exchange rates. There is also evidence of heterogeneity in the speed of NFA adjustment, with emerging market economies adjusting more rapidly than advanced economies, and reserve-currency countries adjusting more slowly than others. The paper also documents the role of NFA returns as insurance against domestic and global income shocks, with a focus on reserve-currency countries.