A Guide And Tool For Projecting Public Debt And Fiscal Adjustment Paths With Local And Foreign Currency Debt
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A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt by Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea,Mr. Leonardo Martinez Pdf
This guide presents the analytical underpinnings and a user manual for the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek
Author : Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 45 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2021-10-22 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781589068711
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines by Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek Pdf
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Western Hemisphere: A Long and Winding Road to Recovery by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Pdf
An economic recovery is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but the pandemic still casts shadows on much of the region. The recovery was robust in the first quarter of 2021 but lost momentum in some countries in the second quarter, reflecting the rebound in COVID-19 cases. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021, followed by a more moderate growth of 3 percent in 2022, but would not catch up with pre-pandemic trends in the medium term as persistent weakness in labor markets raises risks of scarring. Broadly favorable external conditions, high commodity prices, and pent-up demand support short-term growth, while monetary and fiscal policy reversals work in the other direction. Risks to the outlook are tilted downward. Main downside risks are the emergence of more transmissible and deadlier COVID-19 variants, tightening of global financial conditions, sovereign debt rollover risks, and social unrest as a year with heavy election schedule looms. Fiscal policy should allocate sufficient resources for health spending, including vaccination, and continue to support households and firms in a more targeted fashion while the pandemic persists, backed by credible assurances of medium-term debt sustainability to maintain access to finance. Monetary policy has started to address inflationary pressures but should continue to support economic activity insofar as the dynamics of inflation expectations permit. If rising inflation threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations, central banks should tighten monetary policy to signal a commitment to inflation targets and avoid persistent increases in inflation. Preemptive and decisive action should be accompanied with clear and transparent communication. Financial policy should shift from blanket support to targeted support of viable firms, to ensure that necessary labor and capital reallocations are not hindered. Supply-side policies should foster inclusive growth, including through progressive and growth-friendly tax reforms and measures to intensify climate change adaptation and mitigation.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 49 pages File Size : 51,7 Mb Release : 2023-12-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9798400260872
Colombia by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf
Benefiting from an effective policy response to the pandemic and highly favorable terms of trade, Colombia’s economy grew at one of the fastest rates among emerging economies in 2022. This demand-led recovery, however, contributed to internal and external imbalances, for which policy tightening has been now underway. A new administration took office in August 2022, with social equity and climate at the center of its ambitious reform agenda.
Fiscal Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office Pdf
Using a cross-country sample of 169 IMF-supported programs and detailed studies of 15 programs, this evaluation report examines various aspects of fiscal adjustment in IMF-supported programs. It presents evidence that does not support some critics’ view that IMF-supported programs typically adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal adjustment, nor the perception that programs always involve austerity by targeting reductions in public spending. The report also proposes a number of recommendations for IMF surveillance and program design in the future.
Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice by Craig Burnside Pdf
Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.
Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf
The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by Benno Ferrarini,Raghbendra Jha,Arief Ramayandi Pdf
Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 230 pages File Size : 44,7 Mb Release : 2011-12-08 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781616351564
Public Sector Debt Statistics by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides published by the IMF, this one was prepared in consultation with countries and international agencies, including the nine organizations of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS). The guide's preparation was based on the broad range of experience of our institutions and benefitted from consultation with national compilers of government finance and public sector debt statistics. The guide's concepts are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (2008) and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 327 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 2003-06-25 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781589060609
External Debt Statistics by International Monetary Fund Pdf
This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.
Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy by Mr.Emre Balibek,Mr.Tobias Haque,Diego Rivetti,Ms.Miriam Tamene Pdf
This report provides guidance on using the Analytical Tool of the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS). The MTDS framework consists of a methodology, published as the ‘Guidance Note for Developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy’, and an associated analytical tool (AT) that can be used to assess the cost-risk trade-offs of alternative strategies to help identify the preferred strategy. The MTDS framework supported by the AT quantitative analysis helps to determine the financing strategy. The chosen debt management strategy sets out the financing composition path to meet the debt management objective(s). The profile of future interest payments and the amortizations of new debt are driven by the debt management strategy. The MTDS AT is based on annual cash flow. Although this assumption is enough for analyzing alternative debt management strategies, in some cases, particularly for countries that are heavily dependent on short-term securities with maturities of less than a year, it would be helpful to work with cash flows with higher frequency.
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Manual on Fiscal Transparency (2007) by Anonim Pdf
Provides an authoritative account and explanation of the revised IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency (the Code), used by countries undertaking assessments of the transparency of their fiscal management practices (including so-called fiscal ROSCs), legislatures, civil society organizations, economists, and financial analysts. Supplemented by the revised Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency, it identifies numerous benefits from fiscal transparency, including providing citizens with information to hold governments accountable for their policy choices, informing and improving the quality of economic policy decisions, highlighting potential risks to the fiscal outlook, and easing a country's access to international capital markets.--Publisher's description.
