A History Of British Actuarial Thought

Author : Craig Turnbull
Publisher : Springer
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2016-12-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319331836

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A History of British Actuarial Thought by Craig Turnbull Pdf

In the first book of its kind, Turnbull traces the development and implementation of actuarial ideas, from the conception of Equitable Life in the mid-18th century to the start of the 21st century. This book analyses the historical development of British actuarial thought in each of its three main practice areas of life assurance, pensions and general insurance. It discusses how new actuarial approaches were developed within each practice area, and how these emerging ideas interacted with each other and were often driven by common external factors such as shocks in the economic environment, new intellectual ideas from academia and developments in technology. A broad range of historically important actuarial topics are discussed such as the development of the blueprint for the actuarial management of with-profit business; historical developments in mortality modelling methods; changes in actuarial thinking on investment strategy for life and pensions business; changing perspectives on the objectives and methods for funding Defined Benefit pensions; the application of risk theory in general insurance reserving; the adoption of risk-based reserving and the Guaranteed Annuity Option crisis at the end of the 20th century. This book also provides an historical overview of some of the most important external contributions to actuarial thinking: in particular, the first century or so of modern thinking on probability and statistics, starting in the 1650s with Pascal and Fermat; and the developments in the field of financial economics over the third quarter of the twentieth century. This book identifies where historical actuarial thought heuristically anticipated some of the fundamental ideas of modern finance, and the challenges that the profession wrestled with in reconciling these ideas with traditional actuarial methods. Actuaries have played a profoundly influential role in the management of the United Kingdom’s most important long-term financial institutions over the last two hundred years. This book will be the first to chart the influence of the actuarial profession to modern day. It will prove a valuable resource for actuaries, actuarial trainees and students of actuarial science. It will also be of interest to academics and professionals in related financial fields such as accountants, statisticians, economists and investment managers.

Author : Arjen van der Heide
Publisher : Policy Press
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2023-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781529221367

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Dealing in Uncertainty by Arjen van der Heide Pdf

Insurance is an important – if still poorly understood – mechanism for dealing with a broad variety of risks associated with modern life. This book conducts an in-depth examination of one of the largest and longest-established private insurance industries in Europe: British life insurance. In doing so, it draws on over 40 oral history interviews to trace how the sector has changed since the 1970s, a period characterized by rampant financialization and neoliberalization. Combining insights from science and technology studies and economic sociology, this is an unprecedented study of the evolution of insurance practices and an invaluable contribution to our understanding of financial capitalism.

Author : William Cornish,Stephen Banks,Charles Mitchell,Paul Mitchell,Rebecca Probert
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 672 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-31
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781509931255

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Law and Society in England 1750-1950 by William Cornish,Stephen Banks,Charles Mitchell,Paul Mitchell,Rebecca Probert Pdf

Law and Society in England 1750–1950 is an indispensable text for those wishing to study English legal history and to understand the foundations of the modern British state. In this new updated edition the authors explore the complex relationship between legal and social change. They consider the ways in which those in power themselves imagined and initiated reform and the ways in which they were obliged to respond to demands for change from outside the legal and political classes. What emerges is a lively and critical account of the evolution of modern rights and expectations, and an engaging study of the formation of contemporary social, administrative and legal institutions and ideas, and the road that was travelled to create them. The book is divided into eight chapters: Institutions and Ideas; Land; Commerce and Industry; Labour Relations; The Family; Poverty and Education; Accidents; and Crime. This extensively referenced analysis of modern social and legal history will be invaluable to students and teachers of English law, political science, and social history.

Author : Nicola Bruton Bennetts
Publisher : University of Wales Press
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2020-09-15
Category : History
ISBN : 9781786836199

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William Morgan by Nicola Bruton Bennetts Pdf

To meet William Morgan is to encounter the eighteenth-century world of finance, science and politics. Born in Bridgend in 1750, his heritage was Welsh but his influence extended far beyond national borders, and the legacy of his work continues to shape life in the twenty-first century. Aged only twenty-five and with no formal training, Morgan became actuary at the Equitable, which was then a fledgling life assurance company. Known today as ‘the father of the actuarial profession’, his pioneering work earned him the Copley Medal, the Royal Society’s most prestigious award. His interests covered a wider scientific field, and his papers on electrical experiments show that he unwittingly constructed the first X-ray tube. Politically radical, Morgan’s outspoken views put him at risk of imprisonment during Pitt’s Reign of Terror. This biography, using unpublished family letters, explores Morgan’s turbulent private life and covers his outstanding public achievements. ‘William spent 56 years at the Equitable Life Assurance Company, where he learnt how to understand and manage financial risk. In 1789, for his work on the mathematics of life assurance, he was awarded the Copley Medal, the Royal Society’s most prestigious decoration. Subsequent generations have hailed him as ‘the father of the actuarial profession’ – recognition of his having established many of the rules and standards on which the science is based.’ Read more about this on page 6 of the Booklaunch https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=eacd7c66-df5c-4335-86ee-cad05c826bda

Author : Mark Kingwell
Publisher : Biblioasis
Page : 137 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2020-10-13
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781771963930

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On Risk by Mark Kingwell Pdf

With COVID-19 comes a heightened sense of everyday risk. How should a society manage, distribute, and conceive of it? As we cope with the lengthening effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic, considerations of everyday risk have been more pressing, and inescapable. In the past, everyone engaged in some degree of risky behaviour, from mundane realities like taking a shower or getting into a car to purposely thrill-seeking activities like rock-climbing or BASE jumping. Many activities that seemed high-risk, such as flying, were claimed basically safe. But risk was, and always has been, a fact of life. With new focus on the risks of even leaving the safety of our homes, it’s time for a deeper consideration of risk itself. How do we manage and distribute risks? How do we predict uncertain outcomes? If risk can never be completely eliminated, can it perhaps be controlled? At the heart of these questions—which govern everything from waking up each day to the abstract mathematics of actuarial science—lie philosophical issues of life, death, and danger. Mortality is the event-horizon of daily risk. How should we conceive of it?

Author : Richard H. Steckel,Clark Spencer Larsen,Charlotte A. Roberts,Joerg Baten
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2018-10-24
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781108390040

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The Backbone of Europe by Richard H. Steckel,Clark Spencer Larsen,Charlotte A. Roberts,Joerg Baten Pdf

Using human skeletal remains, this volume traces health, workload and violence in the European population over the past 2,000 years. Health was surprisingly good for people who lived during the early Medieval Period. The Plague of Justinian of the sixth century was ultimately beneficial for health because the smaller population had relatively more resources that contributed to better living conditions. Increasing population density and inequality in the following centuries imposed an unhealthy diet - poor in protein - on the European population. With the onset of the Little Ice Age in the late Middle Ages, a further health decline ensued, which was not reversed until the nineteenth century. While some aspects of health declined, other attributes improved. During the early modern period, interpersonal violence (outside of warfare) declined possibly because stronger states and institutions were able to enforce compromise and cooperation. European health over the past two millennia was hence multifaceted in nature.

Author : Igor Tulchinsky,Christopher E. Mason
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2023-08-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262047739

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The Age of Prediction by Igor Tulchinsky,Christopher E. Mason Pdf

The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk. The Age of Prediction is about two powerful, and symbiotic, trends: the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live. Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections. As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences. The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks—genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally. Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people’s medical risks, and stock dynamics.

Author : Antti Ilmanen
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 310 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2022-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119860198

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Investing Amid Low Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen Pdf

Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.

Author : Vladimir Panov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 511 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-21
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783319653136

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Modern Problems of Stochastic Analysis and Statistics by Vladimir Panov Pdf

This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.

Author : Pietro Parodi
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 739 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2023-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000860795

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Pricing in General Insurance by Pietro Parodi Pdf

Based on the syllabus of the actuarial profession courses on general insurance pricing – with additional material inspired by the author’s own experience as a practitioner and lecturer – Pricing in General Insurance, Second Edition presents pricing as a formalised process that starts with collecting information about a particular policyholder or risk and ends with a commercially informed rate. The first edition of the book proved very popular among students and practitioners with its pragmatic approach, informal style, and wide-ranging selection of topics, including: Background and context for pricing Process of experience rating, ranging from traditional approaches (burning cost analysis) to more modern approaches (stochastic modelling) Exposure rating for both property and casualty products Specialised techniques for personal lines (e.g., GLMs), reinsurance, and specific products such as credit risk and weather derivatives General-purpose techniques such as credibility, multi-line pricing, and insurance optimisation The second edition is a substantial update on the first edition, including: New chapter on pricing models: their structure, development, calibration, and maintenance New chapter on rate change calculations and the pricing cycle Substantially enhanced treatment of exposure rating, increased limit factors, burning cost analysis Expanded treatment of triangle-free techniques for claim count development Improved treatment of premium building and capital allocation Expanded treatment of machine learning Enriched treatment of rating factor selection, and the inclusion of generalised additive models The book delivers a practical introduction to all aspects of general insurance pricing and is aimed at students of general insurance and actuarial science as well as practitioners in the field. It is complemented by online material, such as spreadsheets which implement the techniques described in the book, solutions to problems, a glossary, and other appendices – increasing the practical value of the book.

Author : K T Bowes
Publisher : Hakarimata Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2021-02-10
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9791220262705

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The Actuary by K T Bowes Pdf

Desperate. Destitute. But no longer alone. She’s stayed hidden for six years. What harm could it do to attend her best friend’s wedding miles away from home? But the handsome actuary is the last person she expected to find on the dance floor. He knows who she is and the encounter causes an unwelcome reality check. She must protect her son. Emma made a promise, to hide and stay hidden. From him. But the old chemistry is still there. Just his smile is enough to plunge her back into confusion. So, she does the thing that worked last time. She runs. The journey home to her dismal house in the poorest sector of the city is fraught with danger. Even the taxi driver is too afraid to venture onto the housing estate. Emma is now trapped in a prison of her own making, fearful of a knock on the front door. She knows it’s coming. She knows he’s coming. This time, she has nowhere left to run. And the one who helped her last time is no longer taking her calls. Readers say, “This was impossible to put down.” Keywords related to this novel: english small town romance, british mystery series, british mystery novels, british murder mysteries books, british murder mysteries, british espionage novels, british crime series, british authors mysteries, british mysteries, british romantic suspense, forbidden romance books, forbidden romance, forbidden family bonding, forbidden desires, forbidden attraction, forbidden love, forbidden stepbrother, secret baby for the soldier, secret baby romance, secret baby romance books, injured veteran romance, espionage fiction,

Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 641 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780231553353

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Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton Pdf

There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.

Author : Bernard E. Harcourt
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 345 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2008-09-15
Category : Law
ISBN : 9780226315997

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Against Prediction by Bernard E. Harcourt Pdf

From random security checks at airports to the use of risk assessment in sentencing, actuarial methods are being used more than ever to determine whom law enforcement officials target and punish. And with the exception of racial profiling on our highways and streets, most people favor these methods because they believe they’re a more cost-effective way to fight crime. In Against Prediction, Bernard E. Harcourt challenges this growing reliance on actuarial methods. These prediction tools, he demonstrates, may in fact increase the overall amount of crime in society, depending on the relative responsiveness of the profiled populations to heightened security. They may also aggravate the difficulties that minorities already have obtaining work, education, and a better quality of life—thus perpetuating the pattern of criminal behavior. Ultimately, Harcourt shows how the perceived success of actuarial methods has begun to distort our very conception of just punishment and to obscure alternate visions of social order. In place of the actuarial, he proposes instead a turn to randomization in punishment and policing. The presumption, Harcourt concludes, should be against prediction.

Author : S. David Promislow
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 390 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2011-01-06
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470978078

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Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics by S. David Promislow Pdf

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to actuarial mathematics, covering both deterministic and stochastic models of life contingencies, as well as more advanced topics such as risk theory, credibility theory and multi-state models. This new edition includes additional material on credibility theory, continuous time multi-state models, more complex types of contingent insurances, flexible contracts such as universal life, the risk measures VaR and TVaR. Key Features: Covers much of the syllabus material on the modeling examinations of the Society of Actuaries, Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society. (SOA-CIA exams MLC and C, CSA exams 3L and 4.) Extensively revised and updated with new material. Orders the topics specifically to facilitate learning. Provides a streamlined approach to actuarial notation. Employs modern computational methods. Contains a variety of exercises, both computational and theoretical, together with answers, enabling use for self-study. An ideal text for students planning for a professional career as actuaries, providing a solid preparation for the modeling examinations of the major North American actuarial associations. Furthermore, this book is highly suitable reference for those wanting a sound introduction to the subject, and for those working in insurance, annuities and pensions.

Author : Actuarial Society of America
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 1949
Category : Insurance
ISBN : OSU:32435051142107

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History of the Foundation of the Actuarial Society of America by Actuarial Society of America Pdf