A Model Of Contagious Currency Crises With Application To Argentina

Author : Ms.Nada Choueiri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1999-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451844788

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A Model of Contagious Currency Crises with Application to Argentina by Ms.Nada Choueiri Pdf

This paper proposes a model of contagious currency crises: crises transmit across countries by raising the risk premium on government bonds. Three types of equilibria can occur: a “no-collapse” equilibrium (crises never transmit from abroad); a “collapse” equilibrium (crises are inevitably contagious); or a “fundamentals” equilibrium (crises are contagious if domestic fundamentals are weak). A calibration exercise finds that the 1995 turmoil in Argentina coexisted with a combination of risk-averse investors and weak credibility in the currency board arrangement. This turmoil could only be attributed to a Tequila effect from the Mexican crisis alone if investors were excessively risk-averse.

Author : Friedrich L. Sell
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2001-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1781956251

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Contagion in Financial Markets by Friedrich L. Sell Pdf

This book aims to integrate the notions of contagion in epidemiology and contagion in financial market crises to discover why emerging markets are so susceptible to financial crises. The author first provides a brief introduction of the contagious spill-over of recent financial market crises and models the pattern of these crises. He finds that the contagion between crises in emerging markets, such as that of the crises in Russia and Brazil in 1998-1999, is explicable, despite the fact that at first sight they appear to have little in common. Finally, Friedrich Sell integrates these findings to outline a proposal for a 'new international financial architecture'.

Author : Ms.Nada Choueiri,Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 1999-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451857078

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Has the Nature of Crises Changed? A Quarter Century of Currency Crises in Argentina by Ms.Nada Choueiri,Graciela Laura Kaminsky Pdf

The recent turmoil in currency markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America has given a new impetus to the literature on currency crises. The literature originally linked currency crises to deteriorating economic fundamentals, but has more recently focused on self-fulfilling expectations and contagion. To assess the changing roles of domestic and external market fundamentals and contagion, this paper examines seven major currency crises in Argentina. It finds that while crises in the 1970s and 1980s were driven mainly by monetary and fiscal policies at home and abroad, contagion played an important role in the 1990s.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2000-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1557759804

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Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1999-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451974201

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IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

Author : Takatoshi Ito,Anne O. Krueger
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2007-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226386935

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Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries by Takatoshi Ito,Anne O. Krueger Pdf

The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.

Author : ScienceDirect (Service en ligne)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 02615606

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Journal of international money and finance by ScienceDirect (Service en ligne) Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 766 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Latin America
ISBN : UTEXAS:059173000608376

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Research Abstracts by Anonim Pdf

Author : Bibliothèque centrale (Fonds Quetelet)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 840 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Electronic
ISBN : STANFORD:36105011757833

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Aanwinsten van de Centrale Bibliotheek (Queteletfonds) by Bibliothèque centrale (Fonds Quetelet) Pdf

Author : Mr.Joshua Aizenman,Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1997-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451935967

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Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets by Mr.Joshua Aizenman,Pierre-Richard Agénor Pdf

This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Higher volatility of producers’ productivity shocks increases both domestic and foreign financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. Welfare effects are nonlinearly related to the degree of international financial integration.

Author : Olivier de Bandt,Philipp Hartmann
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 102 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Financial crises
ISBN : UVA:X006120104

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Systemic Risk by Olivier de Bandt,Philipp Hartmann Pdf

Author : Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky,Sergio L. Schmukler
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Kriser
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Crisis Management in Argentina During the 1994-95 Mexican Crisis by Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky,Sergio L. Schmukler Pdf

The Mexican crisis of 1994-95 had strong spillover effects on Argentina. The Argentine government successfully announced a series of policies to mitigate the contagion effects. This paper studies how capital markets reacted to each policy announcement and news. Capital markets welcomed announcements that demonstrated a firm commitment to the currency board. The agreement with the IMF, the dollarization of reserve deposits in the central bank, and changes in reserve requirements had a strong positive impact on market returns. After a period of higher volatility, the appointment of a new finance minister significantly decreased the variance of stock and bond returns, while lower reserve requirements increased the volatility of interest rates.

Author : Kenshi Taketa
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Capitalists and financiers
ISBN : UCSD:31822032286544

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A Large Speculator in Contagious Currency Crises by Kenshi Taketa Pdf

This paper studies the implications of the presence of a large speculator such as George Soros during a contagious currency crisis. The model shows that the presence of the large speculator makes countries more vulnerable to crises, but mitigates the contagion of crises across countries. The model presents policy implications of financial disclosure and size regulation of speculators such as hedge funds. First, financial disclosure by speculators eliminates contagion, but may make countries more vulnerable to crises. Second, regulating the size of speculators (e.g., prohibiting hedge funds from high leverage and thereby limiting the amount of short selling) makes countries less vulnerable to crises, but makes contagion more severe.

Author : Marek Dabrowski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461503439

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Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by Marek Dabrowski Pdf

Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, prepared by Warsaw-based Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), discusses various aspects of currency crises in emerging-market economies: The definitions and theoretical models of currency crises, the causes, management and propagation (contagion effect) of crises, their economic, social and policy consequences, the role of international financial institutions, and crisis prevention. In addition, five case studies of currency crises in Central and Eastern Europe are presented.

Author : Nada Choueiri,Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Contagion (Social psychology)
ISBN : UCSD:31822028394377

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Has the Nature of the Crisis Changed? by Nada Choueiri,Graciela Laura Kaminsky Pdf