A Toolkit For Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities And Risks In Advanced Economies
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A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies by Ms.Andrea Schaechter,Mr.Emre Alper,Ms.Elif Arbatli,Carlos Caceres,Giovanni Callegari,Mr.Marc Gerard,Jiri Jonas,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Anke Weber Pdf
This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 42 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2010-08-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498336949
The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Assessing Fiscal Space by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf
This paper reviews the experience with the fiscal space assessment framework that was piloted during 2017–18. In 2016, staff proposed an operational definition of fiscal space and a new four-stage framework for its assessment. These were discussed informally by the Board in June, and a Board paper “Assessing Fiscal Space: An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations” incorporating Directors’ views was published in December. Fiscal space was narrowly defined as the room for undertaking discretionary fiscal policy relative to existing plans without endangering market access and debt sustainability. The framework was developed in response to the need to provide a more systematic approach to assessing fiscal space in the Fund’s surveillance. It was designed as a tool to inform the availability of fiscal space over a 3 to 4 year horizon for discretionary action, as opposed to the optimality of its use. Indeed, it was stressed that the availability of space does not necessarily mean that it should be used or should not be further expanded. The framework was piloted in the Article IV consultations of 34 advanced economies and emerging markets, comprising almost 80 percent of global GDP in PPP terms.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts
Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 28 pages File Size : 54,8 Mb Release : 2016-06-23 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498345583
Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts Pdf
Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 39 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 2013-08-02 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475578256
Guatemala by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf
This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf
The research summaries in the March 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Foreign Direct Investment and the Crisis: Is This Time Different?" (by Yuko Kinoshita) and "Food Prices and Inflation" (by James P. Walsh). The Q&A covers seven questions on "Unemployment through the Prism of the Great Recession" (by Prakash Loungani). This issue also launches a new feature "Conversations with Visiting Scholars" with an interview with Tom Sargent, winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Also included in this issue are details on visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers, and information on the next issue of "IMF Economic Review."
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 90 pages File Size : 54,8 Mb Release : 2012-08-31 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475506013
This Selected Issues and Analytical Note on Finland discusses the potential spillovers to Finland from various shocks associated with cross-country interlinkages. The note provides an overview of the trade and financial linkages, assesses the impact of global fiscal consolidation on Finland via trade links, quantifies dynamic contributions from external sources to growth, and uses these contributions to forecast the potential loss to Finnish GDP from a growth slowdown in other European countries; and analyzes the potential impact from the banking sector or sovereign stress.
Principles of Data Science by Hamid R. Arabnia,Kevin Daimi,Robert Stahlbock,Cristina Soviany,Leonard Heilig,Kai Brüssau Pdf
This book provides readers with a thorough understanding of various research areas within the field of data science. The book introduces readers to various techniques for data acquisition, extraction, and cleaning, data summarizing and modeling, data analysis and communication techniques, data science tools, deep learning, and various data science applications. Researchers can extract and conclude various future ideas and topics that could result in potential publications or thesis. Furthermore, this book contributes to Data Scientists’ preparation and to enhancing their knowledge of the field. The book provides a rich collection of manuscripts in highly regarded data science topics, edited by professors with long experience in the field of data science. Introduces various techniques, methods, and algorithms adopted by Data Science experts Provides a detailed explanation of data science perceptions, reinforced by practical examples Presents a road map of future trends suitable for innovative data science research and practice
Post-crisis Fiscal Policy by Carlo Cottarelli,Philip Gerson,Abdelhak Senhadji,A. Senhadji Semlali Pdf
"Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment). This volume brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. After establishing its analytical foundation, with chapters on such topics as fiscal risk and debt dynamics, the book analyzes the buildup of fiscal vulnerabilities before the crisis, presents the policy response during the crisis, discusses the fiscal outlook and policy challenges ahead, and offers lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. Topics discussed include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and institutional reform aimed at fostering fiscal discipline."--Publisher's description.
Author : The World Bank Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 207 pages File Size : 40,7 Mb Release : 1992 Category : Burundi ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Burundi Public Expenditure Review by The World Bank Pdf
"Burundi has made tremendous progress over the past few years, including: the approval of the new Constitution in 2005, emphasizing the principles of power sharing and local development; the successful management of two rounds of democratic elections in 2005 and 2010’; and the creation of stable macroeconomic environment, which encouraged rebuilding of core public sector institutions. Despite these achievements, the report notes that economic growth remains weak and GSP rates are below expectations. Burundi is therefore vulnerable to different sources of risks conspiring to create a ‘fragility trap’ into which the economy can fall. Chief amongst them are: (i) food price volatility linked to international markets and climatic conditions: (ii) oil prices that affect the import bill of the country; (iii) high level of dependency on aid inflows; (iv) low budget execution capacity, coupled with weak state effectiveness and under-performing public institutions; (v) constraints on productive activity and a highly concentrated export profile; and (vi) enduring risks of political and social instability linked to the return of refugees and its impact on land conflicts and security threats. In this context, the main objectives of this Public Expenditure Review is to assist the Government in its efforts to escape fragility by focusing on two important and complementary themes: (i) creating adequate fiscal space to reduce the impact of future shocks; and (ii) using the available fiscal space to improve public expenditure management and promote government effectiveness. Building on these topics, the report emphasizes six key messages : (i) Burundi has a narrow fiscal space given the structure of its public expenditures, composed mainly of salaries and transfers; (ii) the country should mobilize additional domestic revenues to increase its fiscal space; (iii) the role of donors in supporting effective management of public expenditures remain critical and can also be the source of additional fiscal stress, especially when budget support arrives late in a fiscal year; (iv) accessing high quality budget data remains a challenge due to major incoherencies between data from the Treasury database and data published by SIGEFI; (v) the aid management is not properly integrated into budget execution process; (vi) it is advisable to adopt realistic and pragmatic solutions to improve the performance of the public administration, while keeping the wage bill under control. "
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 94 pages File Size : 49,5 Mb Release : 2012-04-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781616352479
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Mr.Fabio Comelli Pdf
We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 30 pages File Size : 55,6 Mb Release : 2014-05-06 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781484368930
Qatar by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf
This Selected Issues paper assesses efficiency of Qatar public investment. It discusses the trends in public capital spending and the rationale for improving public investment efficiency. The paper outlines three alternative methods for analyzing efficiency, and presents the main results. The results suggest that the efficiency of Qatar public investment spending is broadly comparable to GCC peers, but could be improved further. It is also concluded that strengthening fiscal institutions, particularly with an integrated public investment management process and a medium-term fiscal policy framework, is the key for improving public investment efficiency in Qatar.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 85 pages File Size : 53,7 Mb Release : 2019-06-24 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498321112
Canada by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 109 pages File Size : 51,6 Mb Release : 2019-10-16 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498324021
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.