The Imf Fsb Early Warning Exercise Design And Methodological Toolkit

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The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit

International Monetary Fund
The IMF FSB Early Warning Exercise Design and Methodological Toolkit Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2010-08-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498336949

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The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.

Macroeconomic Policies for Emerging and Developing Economies

A Vasudevan,Partha Ray
Macroeconomic Policies for Emerging and Developing Economies Book PDF

Author : A Vasudevan,Partha Ray
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 185 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2023-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781003810896

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Macroeconomic Policies for Emerging and Developing Economies by A Vasudevan,Partha Ray Pdf

This book examines the relevance of the concepts and hypotheses of macroeconomics in the contemporary world. It discusses the current debates on theory and practices of macroeconomic policies with a focus on developing economies emerging from the impact of Covid-19 pandemic. The volume advocates for a symbiotic relationship between macroeconomic policies and development strategies. It analyses several issues related to macroeconomic tools, which include openness, capital flows, exchange rate and financial strategies. It underscores the need to design a development strategy that accounts for the economic context of the countries concerned. Further, the book advocates for well-regulated macrofinancial policies promoting sustainable growth. It also provides recommendations to policy makers on formulating a sound and inclusive macroeconomic policy essential for financial stability. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of macroeconomics, public administration, development studies, management and policymaking. It will also be useful to economists, policymakers and journalists working on emerging and developing economies.

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Mr.Fabio Comelli
Comparing Parametric and Non parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Book PDF

Author : Mr.Fabio Comelli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2013-05-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484300589

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Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies by Mr.Fabio Comelli Pdf

The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, as the total misclassification error of the former is lower than that of the latter. In addition, we find that the performances of the parametric and non-parametric EWS do not improve if the policymaker becomes more prudent. From a policy perspective, the policymaker faces the standard trade-off when using EWS. Greater prudence allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective macroeconomic policies prematurely.

Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Mr.Hyun Song Shin
Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators Book PDF

Author : Mr.Hyun Song Shin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2013-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484320839

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Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators by Mr.Hyun Song Shin Pdf

This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market conditions but are not suitable as early warning indicators. Total credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more transparent and the decomposition between core and non-core liabilities convey additional useful information.

A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies

Ms.Andrea Schaechter,Mr.Emre Alper,Ms.Elif Arbatli,Carlos Caceres,Giovanni Callegari,Mr.Marc Gerard,Jiri Jonas,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Anke Weber
A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies Book PDF

Author : Ms.Andrea Schaechter,Mr.Emre Alper,Ms.Elif Arbatli,Carlos Caceres,Giovanni Callegari,Mr.Marc Gerard,Jiri Jonas,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Anke Weber
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463959357

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A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies by Ms.Andrea Schaechter,Mr.Emre Alper,Ms.Elif Arbatli,Carlos Caceres,Giovanni Callegari,Mr.Marc Gerard,Jiri Jonas,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Anke Weber Pdf

This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.

Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Macroprudential Policy An Organizing Framework Background Paper Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2011-03-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498339179

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Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

MCM conducted a survey in December 2010 to take stock of international experiences with financial stability and the evolving macroprudential policy framework. The survey was designed to seek information in three broad areas: the institutional setup for macroprudential policy, the analytical approach to systemic risk monitoring, and the macroprudential policy toolkit. The survey was sent to 63 countries and the European Central Bank (ECB), including all countries in the G-20 and those subject to mandatory Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The target list is designed to cover a broad range of jurisdictions in all regions, but more weight is given to economies that are systemically important (see Annex for details). The response rate is 80 percent. This note provides a summary of the survey’s main findings.

Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress

Mr.Ivailo Arsov,Mr.Elie Canetti,Ms.Laura E. Kodres,Ms.Srobona Mitra
Near Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress Book PDF

Author : Mr.Ivailo Arsov,Mr.Elie Canetti,Ms.Laura E. Kodres,Ms.Srobona Mitra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2013-05-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484343784

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Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress by Mr.Ivailo Arsov,Mr.Elie Canetti,Ms.Laura E. Kodres,Ms.Srobona Mitra Pdf

The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to develop a measure of what constitutes a systemic stress, or tail, event. We develop such a measure and uses it to assess the performance of eleven near-term systemic risk indicators as ‘early’ warning of distress among top financial institutions in the United States and the euro area. Two indicators perform particularly well in both regions, and a couple of other simple indicators do well across a number of criteria. We also find that the sizes of institutions do not necessarily correspond with their contribution to spillover risk. Some practical guidance for policies is provided.

How to Assess Country Risk

International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
How to Assess Country Risk Book PDF

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2021-05-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513574219

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How to Assess Country Risk by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.

Spain

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Spain Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2017-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484327050

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Spain by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Spain in the areas of systemic risk oversight framework and macroprudential policy. Macroprudential oversight for banking is a shared responsibility between Banco de España (BdE) and the European Central Bank. The macroprudential policy stance appears broadly appropriate. BdE has put in place a framework for calibrating capital buffers. The countercyclical capital buffer is currently at zero given that a new financial cycle upturn has not started and a still-negative credit gap and weakly recovering housing prices. The existing macroprudential toolkit would benefit from expansion, particularly to include more effective tools to deal with risks associated with real estate exposures.

Assessing Country Risk

Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed
Assessing Country Risk Book PDF

Author : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2017-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484302569

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Assessing Country Risk by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed Pdf

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.

The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization

Anonim
The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization Book PDF

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 807 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780124058996

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The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization by Anonim Pdf

The sharp realities of financial globalization become clear during crises, when winners and losers emerge. Crises usher in short- and long-term changes to the status quo, and everyone agrees that learning from crises is a top priority. The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization devotes separate articles to specific crises, the conditions that cause them, and the longstanding arrangements devised to address them. While other books and journal articles treat these subjects in isolation, this volume presents a wide-ranging, consistent, yet varied specificity. Substantial, authoritative, and useful, these articles provide material unavailable elsewhere. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future Reader demand and lack of competitors underline the high value of these reference works

A Contemporary Concept of Monetary Sovereignty

Claus D. Zimmermann
A Contemporary Concept of Monetary Sovereignty Book PDF

Author : Claus D. Zimmermann
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2013-11-07
Category : Law
ISBN : 9780191502057

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A Contemporary Concept of Monetary Sovereignty by Claus D. Zimmermann Pdf

Monetary sovereignty is a crucial legal concept dictating that states have sovereignty over their own monetary, financial, and fiscal affairs. However, it does not feature as part of any key instruments of international law, including the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund. Rather, it has remained a somewhat separate notion, developed under contemporary international law from an assertion of the former Permanent Court of International Justice in 1929. As a consequence of globalization and increasing financial integration and a worldwide trend towards the creation of economic and monetary unions, the principle of monetary sovereignty has undergone significant change. This book examines this evolution in detail, and provides a conceptual framework to demonstrate what this means for the legal and economic challenges faced by the international community. The book examines the historic origins and evolution of the concept of monetary sovereignty, putting it into the context of broader concepts of sovereignty. It argues that monetary sovereignty remains relevant as a dynamic legal concept with both positive and normative components. It investigates the continuing hybridization of international monetary law resulting from changes to its formal and material sources. It then examines the complex phenomenon of exchange rate misalignment under international monetary and trade law, and the increasing regionalization of monetary sovereignty, notably in light of the European sovereign debt crisis. Finally, it assesses the role the concept of monetary sovereignty can play in the reorganization of international finance following the recent global financial crisis.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2012-11-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475548839

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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz Pdf

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
2014 Triennial Surveillance Review Staff Background Studies Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 120 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498343077

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2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

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A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises

Mr.Suman S Basu,Mr.Marcos Chamon,Mr.Christopher W. Crowe
A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth Fiscal and Financial Crises Book PDF

Author : Mr.Suman S Basu,Mr.Marcos Chamon,Mr.Christopher W. Crowe
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484333648

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A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises by Mr.Suman S Basu,Mr.Marcos Chamon,Mr.Christopher W. Crowe Pdf

This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.