Uncertainty In Strategic Decision Making

Author : Richard J. Arend
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031485534

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Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making by Richard J. Arend Pdf

Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.

Author : Kristian J. Sund,Robert J. Galavan,Anne Sigismund Huff
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2016-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1786351706

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Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making by Kristian J. Sund,Robert J. Galavan,Anne Sigismund Huff Pdf

In this book, leading researchers on Managerial and Organizational Cognition consider the foundations of individual and social cognition and their effect on strategic decision-making.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2016-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781786351692

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Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making by Anonim Pdf

In this book, leading researchers on Managerial and Organizational Cognition consider the foundations of individual and social cognition and their effect on strategic decision-making.

Author : Richard Friberg
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 395 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2015-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262528191

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Managing Risk and Uncertainty by Richard Friberg Pdf

A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Author : Panagiotis E. Petrakis,D. Konstantakopoulou
Publisher : Springer
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2016-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137460790

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Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making by Panagiotis E. Petrakis,D. Konstantakopoulou Pdf

Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.

Author : Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan,Erik-Hans Klijn
Publisher : Psychology Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0415369401

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Managing Uncertainties in Networks by Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan,Erik-Hans Klijn Pdf

Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before.

Author : Simon Haslam,Ben Shenoy
Publisher : Kogan Page Publishers
Page : 257 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2018-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780749472610

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Strategic Decision Making by Simon Haslam,Ben Shenoy Pdf

Making strategic decisions is a fundamental skill for leaders and managers. However, in a business environment that is in a constant state of change, making strategic decisions has never been more difficult. Strategic Decision Making addresses this challenge by providing a framework that can be used to make sound decisions in an uncertain world. Structured around the core concepts of framing, experimenting and scaling, this book will ensure that efforts are focused where the need is greatest, that interventions are tested, evaluated and revised if necessary and that successful initiatives are effectively rolled out across the business. Packed with real world examples and backed up by academic research, Strategic Decision Making will allow today's leaders and the leaders of tomorrow to make successful and defensible business choices. It shows how to: avoid decision-making bias, overcome organizational inertia, manage the difficulties of rigid organizational structures and avoid being side tracked by outdated or irrelevant experience. Essential reading for business practitioners and management students alike, this comprehensive guide provides a robust approach to achieving strategic success.

Author : Colin Eden,J-C Spender
Publisher : SAGE Publications Limited
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 1998-06-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015040053848

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Managerial and Organizational Cognition by Colin Eden,J-C Spender Pdf

Interest in the field of managerial and organizational cognition has been intense over the last few years. This book explores and provides an in-depth overview of the latest developments in the area and presents answers to the questions accompanying its growth: Is the field distinctive? How does it extend our understanding of managerial processes? From different disciplinary perspectives and empirical settings, the contributors study patterns of managerial cognition. In particular, the longitudinal approach reflected in the volume contributes to its impact as a grounded, practice-based analysis of cognition in organizations.

Author : Ruth Prince Mack
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 262 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 1971
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : WISC:89046869012

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Planning on Uncertainty by Ruth Prince Mack Pdf

Author : Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 549 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2010-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781441974211

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales Pdf

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2015-07-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262331715

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Mykel J. Kochenderfer Pdf

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Publisher : Springer
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2019-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030052522

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Author : Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2002-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822031898158

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Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty by Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward Pdf

This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : Vassilis Papadakis,Patrick Barwise
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461561958

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Strategic Decisions by Vassilis Papadakis,Patrick Barwise Pdf

Over the past ten years, there has been growing interest in the process of strategic decision-making among both managers and researchers. Strategic decisions are important for five main reasons: They are large-scale, risky and hard to reverse; they are a bridge between deliberate and emerging strategies; they can be a major source of organizational learning; they play an important part in the development of individual managers and they cut accross functions and academic disciplines. Strategic Decisions summarizes the current state of the art in research on strategic decision-making, with chapters prepared by leading strategy researchers. The editors also present implications for current application and proposed directions for future research.