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Adversarial Risk Analysis by David L. Banks,Jesus M. Rios Aliaga,David Rios Insua Pdf
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Security Risk Assessment by Genserik Reniers,Nima Khakzad,Pieter Van Gelder Pdf
This book deals with the state-of-the-art of physical security knowledge and research in the chemical and process industries. Legislation differences between Europe and the USA are investigated, followed by an overview of the how, what and why of contemporary security risk assessment in this particular industrial sector. Innovative solutions such as attractiveness calculations and the use of game theory, advancing the present science of adversarial risk analysis, are discussed. The book further stands up for developing and employing dynamic security risk assessments, for instance based on Bayesian networks, and using OR methods to truly move security forward in the chemical and process industries.
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French Pdf
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Life Sciences,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Life Sciences,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 172 pages File Size : 40,6 Mb Release : 2009-01-03 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9780309120289
Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Life Sciences,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis Pdf
The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Interpretable Machine Learning by Christoph Molnar Pdf
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Anthony D. Joseph,Blaine Nelson,Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein,J. D. Tygar
Author : Anthony D. Joseph,Blaine Nelson,Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein,J. D. Tygar Publisher : Cambridge University Press Page : 341 pages File Size : 44,8 Mb Release : 2019-02-21 Category : Computers ISBN : 9781107043466
Adversarial Machine Learning by Anthony D. Joseph,Blaine Nelson,Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein,J. D. Tygar Pdf
This study allows readers to get to grips with the conceptual tools and practical techniques for building robust machine learning in the face of adversaries.
National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment,Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management
Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment,Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 102 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2005-03-25 Category : Transportation ISBN : 9780309095181
The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment,Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management Pdf
Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.
Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis by Jack Baker,Brendon Bradley,Peter Stafford Pdf
Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.
Game Theory and Machine Learning for Cyber Security by Charles A. Kamhoua,Christopher D. Kiekintveld,Fei Fang,Quanyan Zhu Pdf
GAME THEORY AND MACHINE LEARNING FOR CYBER SECURITY Move beyond the foundations of machine learning and game theory in cyber security to the latest research in this cutting-edge field In Game Theory and Machine Learning for Cyber Security, a team of expert security researchers delivers a collection of central research contributions from both machine learning and game theory applicable to cybersecurity. The distinguished editors have included resources that address open research questions in game theory and machine learning applied to cyber security systems and examine the strengths and limitations of current game theoretic models for cyber security. Readers will explore the vulnerabilities of traditional machine learning algorithms and how they can be mitigated in an adversarial machine learning approach. The book offers a comprehensive suite of solutions to a broad range of technical issues in applying game theory and machine learning to solve cyber security challenges. Beginning with an introduction to foundational concepts in game theory, machine learning, cyber security, and cyber deception, the editors provide readers with resources that discuss the latest in hypergames, behavioral game theory, adversarial machine learning, generative adversarial networks, and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Readers will also enjoy: A thorough introduction to game theory for cyber deception, including scalable algorithms for identifying stealthy attackers in a game theoretic framework, honeypot allocation over attack graphs, and behavioral games for cyber deception An exploration of game theory for cyber security, including actionable game-theoretic adversarial intervention detection against advanced persistent threats Practical discussions of adversarial machine learning for cyber security, including adversarial machine learning in 5G security and machine learning-driven fault injection in cyber-physical systems In-depth examinations of generative models for cyber security Perfect for researchers, students, and experts in the fields of computer science and engineering, Game Theory and Machine Learning for Cyber Security is also an indispensable resource for industry professionals, military personnel, researchers, faculty, and students with an interest in cyber security.
Risk Centric Threat Modeling by Tony UcedaVelez,Marco M. Morana Pdf
This book introduces the Process for Attack Simulation & Threat Analysis (PASTA) threat modeling methodology. It provides an introduction to various types of application threat modeling and introduces a risk-centric methodology aimed at applying security countermeasures that are commensurate to the possible impact that could be sustained from defined threat models, vulnerabilities, weaknesses, and attack patterns. This book describes how to apply application threat modeling as an advanced preventive form of security. The authors discuss the methodologies, tools, and case studies of successful application threat modeling techniques. Chapter 1 provides an overview of threat modeling, while Chapter 2 describes the objectives and benefits of threat modeling. Chapter 3 focuses on existing threat modeling approaches, and Chapter 4 discusses integrating threat modeling within the different types of Software Development Lifecycles (SDLCs). Threat modeling and risk management is the focus of Chapter 5. Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 examine Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis (PASTA). Finally, Chapter 8 shows how to use the PASTA risk-centric threat modeling process to analyze the risks of specific threat agents targeting web applications. This chapter focuses specifically on the web application assets that include customer’s confidential data and business critical functionality that the web application provides. • Provides a detailed walkthrough of the PASTA methodology alongside software development activities, normally conducted via a standard SDLC process • Offers precise steps to take when combating threats to businesses • Examines real-life data breach incidents and lessons for risk management Risk Centric Threat Modeling: Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis is a resource for software developers, architects, technical risk managers, and seasoned security professionals.
Cyber Adversary Characterization by Tom Parker,Marcus Sachs,Eric Shaw,Ed Stroz Pdf
The wonders and advantages of modern age electronics and the World Wide Web have also, unfortunately, ushered in a new age of terrorism. The growing connectivity among secure and insecure networks has created new opportunities for unauthorized intrusions into sensitive or proprietary computer systems. Some of these vulnerabilities are waiting to be exploited, while numerous others already have. Everyday that a vulnerability or threat goes unchecked greatly increases an attack and the damage it can cause. Who knows what the prospects for a cascade of failures across US infrastructures could lead to. What type of group or individual would exploit this vulnerability, and why would they do it? "Inside the Mind of a Criminal Hacker" sets the stage and cast of characters for examples and scenarios such as this, providing the security specialist a window into the enemy’s mind - necessary in order to develop a well configured defense. Written by leading security and counter-terrorism experts, whose experience include first-hand exposure in working with government branches & agencies (such as the FBI, US Army, Department of Homeland Security), this book sets a standard for the fight against the cyber-terrorist. Proving, that at the heart of the very best defense is knowing and understanding your enemy. * This book will demonstrate the motives and motivations of criminal hackers through profiling attackers at post attack and forensic levels. * This book is essential to those who need to truly "know thy enemy" in order to prepare the best defense. * . The breadth of material in "Inside the Criminal Mind" will surprise every security specialist and cyber-terrorist buff of how much they do and (more importantly) don't know about the types of adversaries they stand to face.
Author : Peter J. van Koppen,Steven D. Penrod Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 437 pages File Size : 42,5 Mb Release : 2012-12-06 Category : Psychology ISBN : 9781441991966
Adversarial versus Inquisitorial Justice by Peter J. van Koppen,Steven D. Penrod Pdf
This is the first volume that directly compares the practices of adversarial and inquisitorial systems of law from a psychological perspective. It aims at understanding why American and European continental systems differ so much, while both systems entertain much support in their communities. The book is written for advanced audiences in psychology and law.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 422 pages File Size : 52,6 Mb Release : 2009-03-24 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9780309120463
Science and Decisions by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA Pdf
Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.