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Author : Victor Zarnowitz,National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1967
Category : Economic forecasting
ISBN : UCAL:B3416561
First report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz,National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 1967
Category : Economic forecasting
ISBN : OCLC:7661788
Author : Mr.Michael J. Artis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 94 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 1996-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451851250
This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.
Author : Karl-Heinz Tödter
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1306165126
The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Author : Mervin Daub
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Page : 249 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 1987-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780773561465
Daub discusses both the rationale for the practice of forecasting and the methods commonly used, and traces the history of aggregate economic forecasting in Canada, examining the structure, conduct, and performance of the present forecasting "industry," particularly the nature of demand and supply, pricing and promotion considerations, and profits and efficiency. He also examinines factors which influence the accuracy of forecasts and reviews the record of Canadian forecasting. In the last chapters Daub considers public policy aspects of economic forecasting. Should forecasters be held liable for inaccurate forecasts? Should they be subject to regulation? He concludes by observing that the practice of forecasting is inextricably linked to our sense of time, as is the very different exercise of time-keeping with clocks or watches. It is socially complex, highly institutionalized, and informed by the many and varied visions we carry of the world. Through it we attempt to organize and shape our individual and collective futures. Until uncertainty is eliminated from human affairs, forecasting will continue to be a necessary social practice, despite recurring bouts of cynicism as to its worth.
Author : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,Christopher William McMahon
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1965
Category : Business forecasting
ISBN : UOM:39015056083960
Author : Hans G. Graf
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2002-08-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780313017414
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author : Oya Celasun,Jungjin Lee,Mr. Mico Mrkaic,Mr. Allan Timmermann
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2021-08-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513587172
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.
Author : George Polanyi
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 102 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 1973
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015030458908
Author : John C. Odling-Smee,Leif Hansen,International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557753274
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1955
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1024417214
Author : N. Carnot,V. Koen,B. Tissot
Publisher : Springer
Page : 495 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2011-07-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230306448
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author : Arno Palmrich
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2009-09-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783640435869
Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: highest grade (ausgezeichnet), University of Applied Sciences Kufstein Tirol, course: Economics Statistics, language: English, abstract: Managers use forecasting in budgeting time and resources. In this thesis, various advanced time series models are constructed, computed and tested for adequacy. This thesis serves as a practical guide to regression and time series analysis. It seeks to demonstrate how to approach problems according to scientific standards to students who are familiar with SPSS® but beginners in regression and time series analysis. Bibliographic notes of classical works and more recent academic advances in time series analysis are provided throughout the text. The research question that this thesis seeks to answer can be formulated in its shortest version as: “How can the management of Dalian Chemson Chemical Products Co; Ltd. use existing company data to make short-term predictions about net sales, Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), and net contribution?” More specifically, this thesis seeks to provide different tools (models) for forecasting the P&L entries net sales, COGS, and net contribution a few months ahead. This author’s approach is based on various versions of two models: One model will forecast net sales and the other model will predict COGS. The expected net contribution is simply defined as the difference between the predictions of these two models. In chapter 4.3 an ordinary least squares regression version of the two models has been computed. In chapter 4.6 a weighted least squares regression has been applied to the models. Autoregressions have been computed in chapter 4.7.1 and two Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) versions have been constructed in chapter 4.7.6. The various versions of the models have then been compared against each other. The version that fits the data best will be used in forecasting. The statistical models in this thesis are computed using SPSS BaseTM, SPSS Regression ModelsTM and SPSS TrendsTM, versions 11.5.0. Each of the model versions constructed herein can be applied in a simple Excel spreadsheet. In the last chapter, a one-step-ahead forecast is produced via the in this thesis developed concept which consists of the most precise versions of the models to forecast net sales and COGS. The forecasting concept developed in this thesis is good in that it produces precise forecasts. Its simplified framework minimizes the effort and expertise required to obtain predictions.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 614 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 1992-06-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226978901
Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.
Author : Ralf Brüggemann,Winfried Pohlmeier,Werner Smolny
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2016-11-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783110510843
Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.