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Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Papua New Guinea
ISBN : UCSD:31822007739980
Author : Diao, Xinshen,Dorosh, Paul A.,Fang, Peixun,Schmidt, Emily
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 8 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2020-12-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.
Author : Berhanu Woldekidan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Equilibrium (Economics)
ISBN : UCSD:31822021495551
General equilibrium model of Papua New Guinea designed to accommodate economic analyses of the consequences of changes in both domestic and international economic conditions. Designed for government and business use. Includes references. The author is a research associate with the National Centre for Development Studies at the Australian National University.
Author : Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2022-07-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.
Author : Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 9 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2022-08-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.
Author : Diao, Xinshen,Dorosh, Paul A.,Fang, Peixun,Schmidt, Emily
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Author : Azeem Amarshi,Kenneth Good,Rex Mortimer
Publisher : Melbourne ; New York : Oxford University Press
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105035902399
The political economy of Papua New Guinea.
Author : Ethan Weisman
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Economic assistance
ISBN : UCSD:31822006352660
Islands Australia Working paper no. 90/13 of the National Centre for Development Studies. An analysis of the effect of the aid boom on the Papua New Guinean economy. Includes diagrams, tables and a list of the centre's publications relating to Papua New Guinea and the Pacific.
Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2012-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789290925828
Papua New Guinea's economic growth has outpaced the majority of economies in Southeast Asia and the Pacific since 2007. Its development challenges, however, remain daunting, and it lags behind other countries in the region in terms of per capita income and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. This raises the question of how the country can make its economic growth high, sustained, inclusive, and broad-based to more effectively improve its population's welfare. This report identifies the critical constraints to these objectives and discusses policy options to help overcome such constraints.
Author : Schmidt, Emily,Fang, Peixun
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 7 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2020-09-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.
Author : R. Michael Bourke,Tracy Harwood
Publisher : ANU E Press
Page : 665 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2009-08-01
Category : Cooking
ISBN : 9781921536618
Agriculture dominates the rural economy of Papua New Guinea (PNG). More than five million rural dwellers (80% of the population) earn a living from subsistence agriculture and selling crops in domestic and international markets. Many aspects of agriculture in PNG are described in this data-rich book. Topics include agricultural environments in which crops are grown; production of food crops, cash crops and animals; land use; soils; demography; migration; the macro-economic environment; gender issues; governance of agricultural institutions; and transport. The history of agriculture over the 50 000 years that PNG has been occupied by humans is summarised. Much of the information presented is not readily available within PNG. The book contains results of many new analyses, including a food budget for the entire nation. The text is supported by 165 tables and 215 maps and figures.
Author : Colin Filer,Pierre-Yves Le Meur
Publisher : ANU Press
Page : 451 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2017-10-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781760461508
Despite the difference in their populations and political status, New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea have comparable levels of economic dependence on the extraction and export of mineral resources. For this reason, the costs and benefits of large-scale mining projects for indigenous communities has been a major political issue in both jurisdictions, and one that has come to be negotiated through multiple channels at different levels of political organisation. The ‘resource boom’ that took place in the early years of the current century has only served to intensify the political contests and conflicts that surround the distribution of social, economic and environmental costs and benefits between community members and other ‘stakeholders’ in the large-scale mining industry. However, the mutual isolation of Anglophone and Francophone scholars has formed a barrier to systematic comparison of the relationship between large-scale mines and local-level politics in Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia, despite their geographical proximity. This collection of essays represents an effort to overcome this barrier, but is also intended as a major contribution to the growth of academic and political debate about the social impact of the large-scale mining industry in Melanesia and beyond.
Author : Schmidt, Emily,Fang, Peixun
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats. PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG. The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.
Author : Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima,Dorosh, Paul A.,Islam, Rizwana,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2023-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.
Author : Yiping Huang
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1998-01-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521620550
Chinese agriculture has experienced some radical changes over the past twenty years. Following the successful introduction of the household production system in the early 1980s, difficulties were encountered in establishing a unified domestic agricultural market in the later 1980s and 1990s. Through a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the Chinese agricultural institutions between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s, this study attempts to provide some answers to the main questions presently facing the agricultural sector. It focuses on the key elements of the pre-reform agricultural institutions, reviews the ways these institutions were refashioned and assesses the resulting changes in agricultural development. The implications of different policy choices are carefully considered with the assistance of a computable general equilibrium model. The author argues that China should push forward with its market-oriented reform measures and introduce the rigours of international competition into the agricultural sector.
