Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis

Author : Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2022-07-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis by Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga Pdf

Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

Author : Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 9 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2022-08-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Synopsis: Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis by Dorosh, Paul A.,Pradesha, Angga Pdf

Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Dorosh, Paul A.,Fang, Peixun,Schmidt, Emily
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Effects of COVID-19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea’s food economy: A multi-market simulation analysis by Diao, Xinshen,Dorosh, Paul A.,Fang, Peixun,Schmidt, Emily Pdf

Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Author : Dorosh, Paul,Thurlow, James,Kebede, Frehiwot Worku,Ferede, Tadele,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2018-09-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Structural change and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: Economy-wide analysis of the evolving role of agriculture by Dorosh, Paul,Thurlow, James,Kebede, Frehiwot Worku,Ferede, Tadele,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum Pdf

This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.

Author : Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima,Dorosh, Paul A.,Islam, Rizwana,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2023-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis by Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima,Dorosh, Paul A.,Islam, Rizwana,Pradesha, Angga Pdf

The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.

Author : Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2017-12-06
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781464805288

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Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9) by Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent Pdf

As the culminating volume in the DCP3 series, volume 9 will provide an overview of DCP3 findings and methods, a summary of messages and substantive lessons to be taken from DCP3, and a further discussion of cross-cutting and synthesizing topics across the first eight volumes. The introductory chapters (1-3) in this volume take as their starting point the elements of the Essential Packages presented in the overview chapters of each volume. First, the chapter on intersectoral policy priorities for health includes fiscal and intersectoral policies and assembles a subset of the population policies and applies strict criteria for a low-income setting in order to propose a "highest-priority" essential package. Second, the chapter on packages of care and delivery platforms for universal health coverage (UHC) includes health sector interventions, primarily clinical and public health services, and uses the same approach to propose a highest priority package of interventions and policies that meet similar criteria, provides cost estimates, and describes a pathway to UHC.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 82 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 1986
Category : Developing countries
ISBN : OSU:32437122299049

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Index of Publications by World Bank Pdf

Author : World Bank
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 658 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 1986
Category : Developing countries
ISBN : UIUC:30112032690254

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Index of Publications & Guide to Information Products and Services by World Bank Pdf

Author : McMillan, Margaret ,Rodrik, Dani,Sepúlveda, Claudia
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2017-05-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780896292147

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Structural change, fundamentals, and growth : a framework and case studies by McMillan, Margaret ,Rodrik, Dani,Sepúlveda, Claudia Pdf

Author : World Bank Group,World Trade Organization
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9287040133

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The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty by World Bank Group,World Trade Organization Pdf

Trade will have an important role at the global level in generating the growth necessary for reducing extreme poverty to 3 percent and boosting prosperity for the poorest 40 percent by 2030. To identify the most important challenges that exist in maximizing the positive impact of trade on poverty, we need to understand who the poor are, where they are, and what economic activities they undertake. To this end, the study highlights particularly relevant dimensions of poverty: rural poverty in remote areas, informality, fragile and conflict situations, and women. For each of these issues, this study considers the main traderelated barriers and challenges, along with policy responses to address them. It shows the importance of the multilateral trading system and of the Doha Round, as well as the important role of the WBG and WTO in promoting coherence and implementing trade policies in a way that delivers the greatest possible benefits for the poor.

Author : Xinshen Diao,Hazell, P.B.R.,Resnick, Danielle,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780896291614

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The Role of Agriculture in Development by Xinshen Diao,Hazell, P.B.R.,Resnick, Danielle,Thurlow, James Pdf

Changes in the global environment have led some to question whether the conventional wisdom on the role of agriculture in economic development is still relevant to Africa today. This report critically examines the literature on this issue, taking both the conventional and skeptical views into account. It complements this review with case studies of five African countries. The findings indicate that agricultural growth will play an essential role in promoting overall economic growth and reducing poverty in most of Africa's agrarian-based economies. This holds true even for countries that have the potential for industrial growth driven by natural resources. The results also show that only smallholder food-staple and livestock production can generate broadbased agricultural growth. By demonstrating that Africa's agricultural and food subsector cannot be bypassed, this report contributes to an important ongoing debate in development studies.

Author : Guntur Sugiyarto
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 458 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Asia
ISBN : UOM:39015075634710

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Poverty Impact Analysis by Guntur Sugiyarto Pdf

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2018-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464813566

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World Development Report 2019 by World Bank Pdf

Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.

Author : Aline Coudouel,Anis A. Dani,Stefano Paternostro
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 550 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2006-01-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780821364871

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Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms by Aline Coudouel,Anis A. Dani,Stefano Paternostro Pdf

"Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) is an approach used increasingly by governments, civil society organizations, the World Bank, and other development partners to examine the distributional impacts of policy reforms on the well-being of different stakeholders groups, particularly the poor and vulnerable. PSIA has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries because it promotes evidence-based policy choices and fosters debate on policy reform options. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms presents a collection of case studies that illustrate the spectrum of sectors and policy reforms to which PSIA can be applied; it also elaborates on the broad range of analytical tools and techniques that can be used for PSIA. The case studies provide examples of the impact that PSIA can have on the design of policy reforms and draw operational lessons for PSIA implementation. The case studies deal largely with policy reforms in a single sector, such as agriculture (crop marketing boards in Malawi and Tanzania and cotton privatization in Tajikistan); energy (mining sector in Romania and oil subsidies in Ghana); utilities (power sector reform in Ghana, Rwanda, and transition economies, and water sector reform in Albania); social sectors (education reform in Mozambique and social welfare reform in Sri Lanka); taxation reform (Nicaragua); as well as macroeconomic modeling (Burkina Faso)."

Author : McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2022-03-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780896294226

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COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later by McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan Pdf

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.