Arms For Uncertainty

Author : Stephen J. Cimbala
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2016-04-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317178514

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Arms for Uncertainty by Stephen J. Cimbala Pdf

Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.

Author : Stephen J. Cimbala
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2016-04-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317178507

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Arms for Uncertainty by Stephen J. Cimbala Pdf

Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.

Author : Brad Roberts
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262680807

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U.S. Security in an Uncertain Era by Brad Roberts Pdf

essays collected from issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges These essays collected from recent issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges. The twenty-eight chapters are divided into sections that cover U.S. security in the 1990s, peacetime defense policy, security in Europe, international security, and proliferation and arms control. Brad Roberts is a Research Fellow in International Security Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Author : Peter Marris
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2003-09-02
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781134789078

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The Politics of Uncertainty by Peter Marris Pdf

In The Politics of Uncertainty Peter Marris examines one of the most crucial and least studied aspects of social relationships: how we manage uncertainty, from the child's struggle for secure attachment to the competitive strategies of multinational corporations. Using a powerful synthesis of social and psychological theory, he shows how strategies of competition interact with the individual's sense of personal agency to place the heaviest burden of uncertainty on those with the fewest social and economic resources. He argues that these strategies maximize uncertainty for everyone by undermining the reciprocity essential to successful economic and social relationships. At a time when global economic reorganisation is undermining security of employment, The Politics of Uncertainty makes a convincing case for strategies of co-operation at both personal and political levels to ensure our economic and social survival in the twenty-first century.

Author : Olivier Urbain
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351492881

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Risk and Uncertainty by Olivier Urbain Pdf

Conflict transformation requires, at minimum, a capacity to listen and respond constructively to those who are being hurt intentionally or unintentionally by others. This compendium attempts to understand the ways in which borders and boundaries are manifestations of less visible dynamics in individual or collective human consciousness.Nur Yalman asks how certain theories, such as the Huntington thesis, become deadly in their consequences. Omar Moufakkir and Ian Kelly analyze Dutch Moroccan relations. Sverre Lodgaard outlines the interrelationship between geo-politics, emerging concepts of world order, and nuclear weapon policies. Anthony Marsella critically analyses the Fukushima nuclear disaster.The lessons drawn in this volume underline the importance of communication, honesty, and a concerned government responsive to the needs of citizens in crisis. Each of these contributions is grappling with different ways in which words, theories, ideologies, and perspectives can hurt or heal, divide or unite, reconcile or destroy.

Author : David Heckerman,Abe Mamdani
Publisher : Morgan Kaufmann
Page : 554 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2014-05-12
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781483214511

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Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence by David Heckerman,Abe Mamdani Pdf

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence contains the proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence held at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, 1993. The papers focus on methods of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty as applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI) and cover topics ranging from knowledge acquisition and automated model construction to learning, planning, temporal reasoning, and machine vision. Comprised of 66 chapters, this book begins with a discussion on causality in Bayesian belief networks before turning to a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic and forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory. Subsequent chapters explore trade-offs in constructing and evaluating temporal influence diagrams; normative engineering risk management systems; additive belief-network models; and sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. Automated model construction and learning as well as algorithms for inference and decision making are also considered. This monograph will be of interest to both students and practitioners in the fields of AI and computer science.

Author : Anastasia Shesterinina,Miriam Matejova
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2023-11-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781003823834

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Uncertainty in Global Politics by Anastasia Shesterinina,Miriam Matejova Pdf

This book engages in a constructive, practical debate on the nature and effects of uncertainty in global politics. International contributors explore the processes associated with different forms of uncertainty in the context of environmental issues, diplomacy and international negotiations, and conflict and security. From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 1997 and 2008 financial crises to the Arab Uprisings and the European migrant crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, assessments of many events with lasting consequences on the global order have begun with: “why didn’t we see this coming?” There is much to learn from how phenomena that affect the global order generate uncertainty and what effects such uncertainty has on actors and issues. Presenting perspectives from all corners of the discipline and emerging and established scholars the book provides an up-to-date overview of the state of the literature; a concise yet conceptually rich theoretical framework; a mix of regional and global contemporary issues; process-oriented empirical evidence and methodological tools to assess different forms of uncertainty and propose practical solutions to addressing uncertainty in diverse contexts. The book will be of interest to scholars of global politics, international security, global environmental politics, international organizations and institutions, social movements, and conflict studies.

Author : Melvyn P. Leffler,Jeffrey W. Legro
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2011-05-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801460814

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In Uncertain Times by Melvyn P. Leffler,Jeffrey W. Legro Pdf

In Uncertain Times considers how policymakers react to dramatic developments on the world stage. Few expected the Berlin Wall to come down in November 1989; no one anticipated the devastating attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in September 2001. American foreign policy had to adjust quickly to an international arena that was completely transformed. Melvyn P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro have assembled an illustrious roster of officials from the George H. W. Bush, Clinton, and George W. Bush administrations—Robert B. Zoellick, Paul Wolfowitz, Eric S. Edelman, Walter B. Slocombe, and Philip Zelikow. These policymakers describe how they went about making strategy for a world fraught with possibility and peril. They offer provocative reinterpretations of the economic strategy advanced by the George H. W. Bush administration, the bureaucratic clashes over policy toward the breakup of the USSR, the creation of the Defense Policy Guidance of 1992, the expansion of NATO, the writing of the National Security Strategy Statement of 2002, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. A group of eminent scholars address these same topics. Bruce Cumings, John Mueller, Mary Elise Sarotte, Odd Arne Westad, and William C. Wohlforth probe the unstated assumptions, the cultural values, and the psychological makeup of the policymakers. They examine whether opportunities were seized and whether threats were magnified and distorted. They assess whether academicians and independent experts would have done a better job than the policymakers did. Together, policymakers and scholars impel us to rethink how our world has changed and how policy can be improved in the future.

Author : Sherman F. Booth
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 974 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Industrial safety
ISBN : MINN:30000010242489

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National Bureau of Standards Handbook by Sherman F. Booth Pdf

Author : Moshe Dror,Pierre L'Ecuyer,Ferenc Szidarovszky
Publisher : Springer
Page : 770 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-05
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780306481024

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Modeling Uncertainty by Moshe Dror,Pierre L'Ecuyer,Ferenc Szidarovszky Pdf

Modeling Uncertainty: An Examination of Stochastic Theory, Methods, and Applications, is a volume undertaken by the friends and colleagues of Sid Yakowitz in his honor. Fifty internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modeling uncertainty to this volume. Each of these papers was carefully reviewed and in the majority of cases the original submission was revised before being accepted for publication in the book. The papers cover a great variety of topics in probability, statistics, economics, stochastic optimization, control theory, regression analysis, simulation, stochastic programming, Markov decision process, application in the HIV context, and others. There are papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications. A number of papers survey the work in a particular area and in a few papers the authors present their personal view of a topic. It is a book with a considerable number of expository articles, which are accessible to a nonexpert - a graduate student in mathematics, statistics, engineering, and economics departments, or just anyone with some mathematical background who is interested in a preliminary exposition of a particular topic. Many of the papers present the state of the art of a specific area or represent original contributions which advance the present state of knowledge. In sum, it is a book of considerable interest to a broad range of academic researchers and students of stochastic systems.

Author : John P. Hardt,Robert F. Bennett
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 504 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2015-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317460312

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Russia's Uncertain Economic Future by John P. Hardt,Robert F. Bennett Pdf

The contributors to this volume analyze the present state of the Russian economy and its future prospects - which now seem brighter than at any previous time in the country's history. The Russian economy is now showing positive GDP growth and a positive balance of payments, portending a trend of sustained growth. The record of the Putin presidency with respect to the establishment of market-friendly legal and administrative environments is substantially positive. On the other side of the ledger, the contributors identify the persistence of monopolies in energy, transportation, and agriculture; distortions resulting from corruption, infrastructural inadequacies, and the maldistribution of political power and decision-making authority; demographic decline and the erosion of human capital as manifested in the health, education, and welfare of the population. Russia's successful development as a democratic society with a market economy is of great importance to its neighbors and to the global economy, and specifically to the United States, which is why the U.S. Congress commissioned these studies by expert analysts. This edition includes a comprehensive subject index, making the volume user-friendly.

Author : Herbert Druks
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2000-11-30
Category : History
ISBN : 9780313002755

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The Uncertain Friendship by Herbert Druks Pdf

Although the United States has been a friend to Israel from the beginning and Israel has in return been an important American ally in the region, relations between the two nations have never been without difficulties. This study traces U.S.-Israeli relations from the 1930s to the early 1960s and examines the roles played by both Israelis and Americans in the formation of an independent Israel. Taking into account economic, political, social, and military factors, Druks devotes particular attention to elements of Israel's dependence on and independence from the United States during crucial phases of relations. These include the Holocaust and the failure to rescue European Jewry; Roosevelt and the promise of independence; establishment and recognition; Washington's ongoing relations with the new nation; the 1956 Sinai War; and President John F. Kennedy's enlightened approach towards Israel and the Middle East. On the U.S. side, Druks analyzes the defining roles played by the various presidents involved, the efforts of Congress, the influence of the media, and the contributions of Americans in general. Discussion of the Israeli side of the equation includes the impact of Israeli leaders, society, and the parliamentary democratic process. The work is based on materials from public and private archives in the U.S. and Israel, published governmental documents, as well as personal diaries. In addition, the author includes interviews with such key figures as Harry S Truman, W. Averell Harriman, Roger P. Davies, Yitzhak Rabin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yitzhak Shamir Moti Gur, Moshe Arens, and Ezer Weizman.

Author : Kenneth Finlayson
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2001-07-30
Category : History
ISBN : 9780313074172

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An Uncertain Trumpet by Kenneth Finlayson Pdf

Faced with severe budgetary constraints, a radically reduced force structure, and a crippling intellectual dogmatism, the American Infantry struggled throughout the interwar years to modernize its doctrine. Finlayson examines these difficulties, beginning with an overview of the experiences of the primary combatants of the First World War, comparing their battlefield doctrines with that of the American Expeditionary Force. The brief American appearance on the battlefield did much to shape the convictions of those men assigned the task of developing doctrine after the war. The findings of the post-World War I Superior Board provide valuable insight into how institutional conservatism and the dogmatic approach to new ideas that existed among senior Army leaders stymied possible doctrinal advances. The Army would suffer greatly in the post-war demobilization and the subsequent ravages of the Great Depression. With little money and few soldiers spread around far-flung posts, little advancement in terms of doctrinal development was possible. As the likelihood of war became more imminent in the 1930s, a concerted effort to modernize was made; however, the magnitude of the task made success virtually impossible-a situation that was evident in the Infantry's poor performance in the early battles of the war. The U.S. entry into World war II would, unfortunately, find the infantry branch only partially prepared for the battle field of 1942.

Author : John Pearce Hardt
Publisher : M.E. Sharpe
Page : 508 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0765612089

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Russia's Uncertain Economic Future by John Pearce Hardt Pdf

The Russian economy is now showing positive GDP growth and a positive balance of payments, portending a trend of sustained growth. The contributors to this volume analyze the present state of the Russian economy and its future prospects which now seem brighter than ever.

Author : Bartholomew H. Sparrow
Publisher : JHU Press
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1999-05-04
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN : 0801860369

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Uncertain Guardians by Bartholomew H. Sparrow Pdf

The news media are often seen as a fourth branch of government, serving as a check on the other three. This text argues that this is a mistaken notion: the media's decisions affect the government's policy making, as well as the processes and outcomes of the political system.