Artificial Intelligence Techniques For Rational Decision Making

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Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making

Tshilidzi Marwala
Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2014-10-20
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319114248

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Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

Intelligent Decision Making: An AI-Based Approach

Gloria Phillips-Wren,Nikhil Ichalkaranje
Intelligent Decision Making An AI Based Approach Book PDF

Author : Gloria Phillips-Wren,Nikhil Ichalkaranje
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 414 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2008-03-04
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783540768289

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Intelligent Decision Making: An AI-Based Approach by Gloria Phillips-Wren,Nikhil Ichalkaranje Pdf

Intelligent Decision Support Systems have the potential to transform human decision making by combining research in artificial intelligence, information technology, and systems engineering. The field of intelligent decision making is expanding rapidly due, in part, to advances in artificial intelligence and network-centric environments that can deliver the technology. Communication and coordination between dispersed systems can deliver just-in-time information, real-time processing, collaborative environments, and globally up-to-date information to a human decision maker. At the same time, artificial intelligence techniques have demonstrated that they have matured sufficiently to provide computational assistance to humans in practical applications. This book includes contributions from leading researchers in the field beginning with the foundations of human decision making and the complexity of the human cognitive system. Researchers contrast human and artificial intelligence, survey computational intelligence, present pragmatic systems, and discuss future trends. This book will be an invaluable resource to anyone interested in the current state of knowledge and key research gaps in the rapidly developing field of intelligent decision support.

Causality, Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making

Tshilidzi Marwala
Causality Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2015-01-02
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789814630887

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Causality, Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Causality has been a subject of study for a long time. Often causality is confused with correlation. Human intuition has evolved such that it has learned to identify causality through correlation. In this book, four main themes are considered and these are causality, correlation, artificial intelligence and decision making. A correlation machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron network, principal component analysis, Gaussian Mixture models, genetic algorithms, expectation maximization technique, simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, a causal machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function, Bayesian statistics and Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. Both these machines are used to build a Granger non-linear causality model. In addition, the Neyman–Rubin, Pearl and Granger causal models are studied and are unified. The automatic relevance determination is also applied to extend Granger causality framework to the non-linear domain. The concept of rational decision making is studied, and the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality is used to extend the theory of bounded rationality within the principle of the indivisibility of rationality. The theory of the marginalization of irrationality for decision making is also introduced to deal with satisficing within irrational conditions. The methods proposed are applied in biomedical engineering, condition monitoring and for modelling interstate conflict. Contents:Introduction to Artificial Intelligence based Decision MakingWhat is a Correlation Machine?What is a Causal Machine?Correlation Machines Using Optimization MethodsNeural Networks for Modeling Granger CausalityRubin, Pearl and Granger Causality Models: A Unified ViewCausal, Correlation and Automatic Relevance Determination Machines for Granger CausalityFlexibly-bounded RationalityMarginalization of Irrationality in Decision MakingConclusions and Further Work Readership: Graduate students, researchers and professionals in the field of artificial intelligence. Key Features:It proposes fresh definition of causality and proposes two new theories i.e. flexibly bounded rationality and marginalization of irrationality theory for decision makingIt also applies these techniques to a diverse areas in engineering, political science and biomedical engineeringKeywords:Causality;Correlation;Artificial Intelligence;Rational Decision Making

Predicting Human Decision-Making

Ariel Geib,Sarit Yang
Predicting Human Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Ariel Geib,Sarit Yang
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2022-05-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783031015786

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Predicting Human Decision-Making by Ariel Geib,Sarit Yang Pdf

Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

Tatiana Valentine Guy,Miroslav Kárný,David H. Wolpert
Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers Book PDF

Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy,Miroslav Kárný,David H. Wolpert
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 195 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2011-11-13
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783642246470

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Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers by Tatiana Valentine Guy,Miroslav Kárný,David H. Wolpert Pdf

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?

On Rationality, Artificial Intelligence And Economics

Daniel Muller,Fernando Buarque,Tshilidzi Marwala
On Rationality Artificial Intelligence And Economics Book PDF

Author : Daniel Muller,Fernando Buarque,Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789811255137

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On Rationality, Artificial Intelligence And Economics by Daniel Muller,Fernando Buarque,Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

The world we live in presents plenty of tricky, impactful, and hard-tomake decisions to be taken. Sometimes the available options are ample, at other times they are apparently binary, either way, they often confront us with dilemmas, paradoxes, and even denial of values.In the dawn of the age of intelligence, when robots are gradually taking over most decision-making from humans, this book sheds a bit of light on decision rationale. It delves into the limits of these decision processes (for both humans and machines), and it does so by providing a new perspective that is somehow opposed to orthodox economics. All Economics reflections in this book are underlined and linked to Artificial Intelligence.The authors hope that this comprehensive and modern analysis, firmly grounded in the opinions of various groundbreaking Nobel laureate economists, may be helpful to a broad audience interested in how decisions may lead us all to flourishing societies. That is, societies in which economic blunders (caused by over simplification of problems and super estimation of tools) are reduced substantially.

Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence

Michael Doumpos,Evangelos Grigoroudis
Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Michael Doumpos,Evangelos Grigoroudis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2013-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118522493

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Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence by Michael Doumpos,Evangelos Grigoroudis Pdf

Presents recent advances in both models and systems for intelligent decision making. Organisations often face complex decisions requiring the assessment of large amounts of data. In recent years Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied with considerable success to support decision making in a wide range of complex real-world problems. The integration of MCDA and AI provides new capabilities relating to the structuring of complex decision problems in static and distributed environments. These include the handling of massive data sets, the modelling of ill-structured information, the construction of advanced decision models, and the development of efficient computational optimization algorithms for problem solving. This book covers a rich set of topics, including intelligent decision support technologies, data mining models for decision making, evidential reasoning, evolutionary multiobjective optimization, fuzzy modelling, as well as applications in management and engineering. Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence: Covers all of the recent advances in intelligent decision making. Includes a presentation of hybrid models and algorithms for preference modelling and optimisation problems. Provides illustrations of new intelligent technologies and architectures for decision making in static and distributed environments. Explores the general topics on preference modelling and learning, along with the coverage of the main techniques and methodologies and applications. Is written by experts in the field. This book provides an excellent reference tool for the increasing number of researchers and practitioners interested in the integration of MCDA and AI for the development of effective hybrid decision support methodologies and systems. Academics and post-graduate students in the fields of operational research, artificial intelligence and management science or decision analysis will also find this book beneficial.

Intelligent Decision-making Support Systems

Jatinder N.D. Gupta,Guisseppi A. Forgionne,Manuel Mora T.
Intelligent Decision making Support Systems Book PDF

Author : Jatinder N.D. Gupta,Guisseppi A. Forgionne,Manuel Mora T.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2007-03-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781846282317

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Intelligent Decision-making Support Systems by Jatinder N.D. Gupta,Guisseppi A. Forgionne,Manuel Mora T. Pdf

This book will be bought by researchers and graduates students in Artificial Intelligence and management as well as practising managers and consultants interested in the application of IT and information systems in real business environment.

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 2: Optimization And Decision Making

Tshilidzi Marwala,Collins Achepsah Leke
Handbook Of Machine Learning Volume 2 Optimization And Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala,Collins Achepsah Leke
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-21
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789811205682

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Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 2: Optimization And Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala,Collins Achepsah Leke Pdf

Building on , this volume on Optimization and Decision Making covers a range of algorithms and their applications. Like the first volume, it provides a starting point for machine learning enthusiasts as a comprehensive guide on classical optimization methods. It also provides an in-depth overview on how artificial intelligence can be used to define, disprove or validate economic modeling and decision making concepts.

Smart Computing Applications in Crowdfunding

Bo Xing,Tshilidzi Marwala
Smart Computing Applications in Crowdfunding Book PDF

Author : Bo Xing,Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 512 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2018-12-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351265072

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Smart Computing Applications in Crowdfunding by Bo Xing,Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

The book focuses on smart computing for crowdfunding usage, looking at the crowdfunding landscape, e.g., reward-, donation-, equity-, P2P-based and the crowdfunding ecosystem, e.g., regulator, asker, backer, investor, and operator. The increased complexity of fund raising scenario, driven by the broad economic environment as well as the need for using alternative funding sources, has sparked research in smart computing techniques. Covering a wide range of detailed topics, the authors of this book offer an outstanding overview of the current state of the art; providing deep insights into smart computing methods, tools, and their applications in crowdfunding; exploring the importance of smart analysis, prediction, and decision-making within the fintech industry. This book is intended to be an authoritative and valuable resource for professional practitioners and researchers alike, as well as finance engineering, and computer science students who are interested in crowdfunding and other emerging fintech topics.

Decision Intelligence

Thorsten Heilig,Ilhan Scheer
Decision Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Thorsten Heilig,Ilhan Scheer
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 247 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2023-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781394185443

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Decision Intelligence by Thorsten Heilig,Ilhan Scheer Pdf

Dramatically improve your decisions with data and AI In Decision Intelligence: Transform Your Team and Organization with AI-Driven Decision-Making, a team of pioneering decision and AI strategists delivers a digestible and hands-on resource for professionals at every part of the decision-making journey. The book discusses the latest technology and approaches that bridge the gap between behavioral science, data science, and technological innovation. Discover how leaders from various industries and environments are using data and AI to make better future decisions, taking both human as well as business factors into account. This book covers: A demystifying behind-the-scenes peek inside how AI models, forecasts, and optimization for business challenges really work, and why they open up entirely new possibilities. A business-ready introduction to decision intelligence, exploring why traditional decision-making strategies are outdated and how to transition to decision-intelligence. The evolution of Decision Intelligence, coming from analytics and modern techniques like process mining and robotic process automation An examination of decision intelligence at the organizational level, including discussions of agile transformation, transparent organizational culture, and why psychological safety is a crucial enabler for new ways of decision-making in modern companies An overview of why (and where exactly) AI still needs human expertise and how to incorporate this topic in daily planning and decision making Decision Intelligence is essential reading for managers, executives, board members, other business leaders and soon-to-be leaders looking to improve the quality, adaptability, and speed of their decision-making. Praise for Decision Intelligence "In Decision Intelligence, Thorsten Heilig and Ilhan Scheer build a compelling case for the world of tomorrow’s version of decision-making.” ―Martin Lindstrom, New York Times best-selling author "Decision Intelligence will be one of the big topics for this decade and completely change the way organizations manage, plan, and operate. This book provides a comprehensive guide from the basics to the applications." ―Niklas Jansen, Entrepreneur and Tech Investor, Founding Partner Interface Capital and Co-Founder Blinkist "The book impressively demonstrates the potential and entry points into the world of AI-powered decision making. A very valuable reading for managers and their organizations". ―Michael Kleinemeier, Member of the Merck KG Board of Partners, former Member of the SAP SE Executive Board “The AI hype perfectly captured, easy to understand, de-mystified and mapped to clear use cases - a must-read for today's managers.” ―Dr. Daniela Gerd tom Markotten, Member of the Management Board for Digitalization and Technology, Deutsche Bahn AG

Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence

Tshilidzi Marwala
Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-31
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128209448

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Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets Discusses the application of Moore’s Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality

Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market

Tshilidzi Marwala,Evan Hurwitz
Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory Skynet in the Market Book PDF

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala,Evan Hurwitz
Publisher : Springer
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2017-09-18
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319661049

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Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market by Tshilidzi Marwala,Evan Hurwitz Pdf

This book theoretically and practically updates major economic ideas such as demand and supply, rational choice and expectations, bounded rationality, behavioral economics, information asymmetry, pricing, efficient market hypothesis, game theory, mechanism design, portfolio theory, causality and financial engineering in the age of significant advances in man-machine systems. The advent of artificial intelligence has changed many disciplines such as engineering, social science and economics. Artificial intelligence is a computational technique which is inspired by natural intelligence concepts such as the swarming of birds, the working of the brain and the pathfinding of the ants. Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market analyses the impact of artificial intelligence on economic theories, a subject that has not been studied. It also introduces new economic theories and these are rational counterfactuals and rational opportunity costs. These ideas are applied to diverse areas such as modelling of the stock market, credit scoring, HIV and interstate conflict. Artificial intelligence ideas used in this book include neural networks, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. It, furthermore, explores ideas in causality including Granger as well as the Pearl causality models.

Multi-Objective Decision Making

Diederik M. Roijers,Shimon Whiteson
Multi Objective Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Diederik M. Roijers,Shimon Whiteson
Publisher : Morgan & Claypool Publishers
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-04-20
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781681731827

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Multi-Objective Decision Making by Diederik M. Roijers,Shimon Whiteson Pdf

Many real-world decision problems have multiple objectives. For example, when choosing a medical treatment plan, we want to maximize the efficacy of the treatment, but also minimize the side effects. These objectives typically conflict, e.g., we can often increase the efficacy of the treatment, but at the cost of more severe side effects. In this book, we outline how to deal with multiple objectives in decision-theoretic planning and reinforcement learning algorithms. To illustrate this, we employ the popular problem classes of multi-objective Markov decision processes (MOMDPs) and multi-objective coordination graphs (MO-CoGs). First, we discuss different use cases for multi-objective decision making, and why they often necessitate explicitly multi-objective algorithms. We advocate a utility-based approach to multi-objective decision making, i.e., that what constitutes an optimal solution to a multi-objective decision problem should be derived from the available information about user utility. We show how different assumptions about user utility and what types of policies are allowed lead to different solution concepts, which we outline in a taxonomy of multi-objective decision problems. Second, we show how to create new methods for multi-objective decision making using existing single-objective methods as a basis. Focusing on planning, we describe two ways to creating multi-objective algorithms: in the inner loop approach, the inner workings of a single-objective method are adapted to work with multi-objective solution concepts; in the outer loop approach, a wrapper is created around a single-objective method that solves the multi-objective problem as a series of single-objective problems. After discussing the creation of such methods for the planning setting, we discuss how these approaches apply to the learning setting. Next, we discuss three promising application domains for multi-objective decision making algorithms: energy, health, and infrastructure and transportation. Finally, we conclude by outlining important open problems and promising future directions.

Decision Economics. Designs, Models, and Techniques for Boundedly Rational Decisions

Edgardo Bucciarelli,Shu-Heng Chen,Juan Manuel Corchado
Decision Economics Designs Models and Techniques for Boundedly Rational Decisions Book PDF

Author : Edgardo Bucciarelli,Shu-Heng Chen,Juan Manuel Corchado
Publisher : Springer
Page : 179 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-12-28
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319996981

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Decision Economics. Designs, Models, and Techniques for Boundedly Rational Decisions by Edgardo Bucciarelli,Shu-Heng Chen,Juan Manuel Corchado Pdf

The special session on Decision Economics (DECON) is a scientific forum held annually, which is focused on sharing ideas, projects, research results, models, and experiences associated with the complexity of behavioural decision processes and socio‐economic phenomena. In 2018, DECON was held at Campus Tecnológico de la Fábrica de Armas, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, as part of the 15th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence. For the third consecutive year, this book have drawn inspiration from Herbert A. Simon’s interdisciplinary legacy and, in particular, is devoted to designs, models, and techniques for boundedly rational decisions, involving several fields of study and expertise. It is worth noting that the recognition of relevant decision‐making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, small and international business management, operations, and production. Therefore, decision‐making issues are of fundamental importance in all branches of economics addressed with different methodological approaches. As a matter of fact, the study of decision‐making has become the focus of intense research efforts, both theoretical and applied, forming a veritable bridge between theory and practice as well as science and business organisations, whose pillars are based on insightful cutting‐edge experimental, behavioural, and computational approaches on the one hand, and celebrating the value of science as well as the close relationship between economics and complexity on the other. In this respect, the international scientific community acknowledges Herbert A. Simon’s research endeavours to understand the processes involved in economic decision‐making and their implications for the advancement of economic professions. Within the field of decision‐making, indeed, Simon has become a mainstay of bounded rationality and satisficing. His rejection of the standard (unrealistic) decision‐making models adopted by neoclassical economists inspired social scientists worldwide with the purpose to develop research programmes aimed at studying decision‐making empirically, experimentally, and computationally. The main achievements concern decision‐making for individuals, firms, markets, governments, institutions, and, last but not least, science and research. This book of selected papers tackles these issues that Simon broached in a professional career spanning more than sixty years. The Editors of this book dedicated it to Herb.