Causality Correlation And Artificial Intelligence For Rational Decision Making

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2015-01-02
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789814630887

Get Book

Causality, Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Causality has been a subject of study for a long time. Often causality is confused with correlation. Human intuition has evolved such that it has learned to identify causality through correlation. In this book, four main themes are considered and these are causality, correlation, artificial intelligence and decision making. A correlation machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron network, principal component analysis, Gaussian Mixture models, genetic algorithms, expectation maximization technique, simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, a causal machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function, Bayesian statistics and Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. Both these machines are used to build a Granger non-linear causality model. In addition, the Neyman–Rubin, Pearl and Granger causal models are studied and are unified. The automatic relevance determination is also applied to extend Granger causality framework to the non-linear domain. The concept of rational decision making is studied, and the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality is used to extend the theory of bounded rationality within the principle of the indivisibility of rationality. The theory of the marginalization of irrationality for decision making is also introduced to deal with satisficing within irrational conditions. The methods proposed are applied in biomedical engineering, condition monitoring and for modelling interstate conflict. Contents:Introduction to Artificial Intelligence based Decision MakingWhat is a Correlation Machine?What is a Causal Machine?Correlation Machines Using Optimization MethodsNeural Networks for Modeling Granger CausalityRubin, Pearl and Granger Causality Models: A Unified ViewCausal, Correlation and Automatic Relevance Determination Machines for Granger CausalityFlexibly-bounded RationalityMarginalization of Irrationality in Decision MakingConclusions and Further Work Readership: Graduate students, researchers and professionals in the field of artificial intelligence. Key Features:It proposes fresh definition of causality and proposes two new theories i.e. flexibly bounded rationality and marginalization of irrationality theory for decision makingIt also applies these techniques to a diverse areas in engineering, political science and biomedical engineeringKeywords:Causality;Correlation;Artificial Intelligence;Rational Decision Making

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2014-10-20
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319114248

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

Author : Bo Xing,Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 512 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2018-12-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351265072

Get Book

Smart Computing Applications in Crowdfunding by Bo Xing,Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

The book focuses on smart computing for crowdfunding usage, looking at the crowdfunding landscape, e.g., reward-, donation-, equity-, P2P-based and the crowdfunding ecosystem, e.g., regulator, asker, backer, investor, and operator. The increased complexity of fund raising scenario, driven by the broad economic environment as well as the need for using alternative funding sources, has sparked research in smart computing techniques. Covering a wide range of detailed topics, the authors of this book offer an outstanding overview of the current state of the art; providing deep insights into smart computing methods, tools, and their applications in crowdfunding; exploring the importance of smart analysis, prediction, and decision-making within the fintech industry. This book is intended to be an authoritative and valuable resource for professional practitioners and researchers alike, as well as finance engineering, and computer science students who are interested in crowdfunding and other emerging fintech topics.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala,Evan Hurwitz
Publisher : Springer
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-18
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319661049

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market by Tshilidzi Marwala,Evan Hurwitz Pdf

This book theoretically and practically updates major economic ideas such as demand and supply, rational choice and expectations, bounded rationality, behavioral economics, information asymmetry, pricing, efficient market hypothesis, game theory, mechanism design, portfolio theory, causality and financial engineering in the age of significant advances in man-machine systems. The advent of artificial intelligence has changed many disciplines such as engineering, social science and economics. Artificial intelligence is a computational technique which is inspired by natural intelligence concepts such as the swarming of birds, the working of the brain and the pathfinding of the ants. Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market analyses the impact of artificial intelligence on economic theories, a subject that has not been studied. It also introduces new economic theories and these are rational counterfactuals and rational opportunity costs. These ideas are applied to diverse areas such as modelling of the stock market, credit scoring, HIV and interstate conflict. Artificial intelligence ideas used in this book include neural networks, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. It, furthermore, explores ideas in causality including Granger as well as the Pearl causality models.

Author : James M. Joyce
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1999-04-13
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139471381

Get Book

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by James M. Joyce Pdf

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.

Author : Ellery Eells
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 229 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2016-08-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781107144811

Get Book

Rational Decision and Causality by Ellery Eells Pdf

Originally published: New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala,Collins Achepsah Leke
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-21
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789811205682

Get Book

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 2: Optimization And Decision Making by Tshilidzi Marwala,Collins Achepsah Leke Pdf

Building on , this volume on Optimization and Decision Making covers a range of algorithms and their applications. Like the first volume, it provides a starting point for machine learning enthusiasts as a comprehensive guide on classical optimization methods. It also provides an in-depth overview on how artificial intelligence can be used to define, disprove or validate economic modeling and decision making concepts.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2021-03-31
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128209448

Get Book

Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets Discusses the application of Moore’s Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality

Author : Ariel Geib,Sarit Yang
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2022-05-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783031015786

Get Book

Predicting Human Decision-Making by Ariel Geib,Sarit Yang Pdf

Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.

Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy,Miroslav Kárný,David H. Wolpert
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 195 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2011-11-13
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783642246470

Get Book

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers by Tatiana Valentine Guy,Miroslav Kárný,David H. Wolpert Pdf

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?

Author : Tankiso Moloi,Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2020-05-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783030429621

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Finance Theories by Tankiso Moloi,Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificial intelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision. The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 329 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2018-10-22
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789813271241

Get Book

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

This is a comprehensive book on the theories of artificial intelligence with an emphasis on their applications. It combines fuzzy logic and neural networks, as well as hidden Markov models and genetic algorithm, describes advancements and applications of these machine learning techniques and describes the problem of causality. This book should serves as a useful reference for practitioners in artificial intelligence.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 221 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2023-08-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789819951031

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence, Game Theory and Mechanism Design in Politics by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

This book explores how AI and mechanism design can provide a new framework for international politics. The international political system is all manners in which countries, governments and people relate. Mechanism design in international politics relates to identifying rules that define relationships between people and countries that achieve a particular outcome, e.g., peace or more trade or democracy or economic development. Artificial intelligence is technique of making machines intelligent. This book explores mechanism design and artificial intelligence in international politics and applies these technologies to politics, economy and society. This book will be of interest to scholars of international relations, politics, sustainable development, and artificial intelligence.

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 267 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2024-06-10
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789819728275

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence and the Law by Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Author : Bhaso Ndzendze,Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 190 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2021-06-03
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789811234569

Get Book

Artificial Intelligence And Emerging Technologies In International Relations by Bhaso Ndzendze,Tshilidzi Marwala Pdf

Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies in International Relations explores the geopolitics between technology and international relations. Through a focus on war, trade, investment flows, diplomacy, regional integration and development cooperation, this book takes a holistic perspective to examine the origins of technology, analysing its current manifestations in the contemporary world. The authors present the possible future roles of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies (including blockchain, 3D printing, 5G connectivity and the Internet of Things) in the context of global arena.This book is essential reading to all who seek to understand the reality of the inequitable distribution of these game-changing technologies that are shaping the world. Research questions as well as some policy options for the developing world are explored and the authors make the case for cooperation by the international community as we enter the fourth industrial revolution.