Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2010-09-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309161343

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Pdf

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Author : National Research Council (U.
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:740865453

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council (U. Pdf

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2010-10-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309151832

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Pdf

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2008-03-02
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309115681

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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data Pdf

This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Climate Research Committee
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1994-02-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309051804

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GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Climate Research Committee Pdf

This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.

Author : R. Saravanan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 399 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2021-10-21
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN : 9781316510766

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The Climate Demon by R. Saravanan Pdf

An introduction to the complex world of climate models that explains why we should trust their predictions despite the uncertainties.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2016-08-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309388801

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Next Generation Earth System Prediction by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting Pdf

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Author : Andrew Robertson,Frederic Vitart
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 585 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2018-10-19
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128117156

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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by Andrew Robertson,Frederic Vitart Pdf

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Author : Tim Palmer,Renate Hagedorn
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 693 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2006-07-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139458207

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Predictability of Weather and Climate by Tim Palmer,Renate Hagedorn Pdf

With contributions by leading experts, including an unpublished paper by Ed Lorenz, this book, first published in 2006, covers many topics in weather and climate predictability. It will interest those in the fields of environmental science and weather and climate forecasting, from graduate students to researchers, by examining theoretical and practical aspects of predictability.

Author : Alberto Troccoli,Mike Harrison,David L.T. Anderson,Simon J. Mason
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 462 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2008-02-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781402069901

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Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by Alberto Troccoli,Mike Harrison,David L.T. Anderson,Simon J. Mason Pdf

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Author : Vladimir F. Krapivin,Costas A. Varotsos,Vladimir Yu. Soldatov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 903 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2015-01-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783319139784

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New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science by Vladimir F. Krapivin,Costas A. Varotsos,Vladimir Yu. Soldatov Pdf

This book provides new insights on the study of global environmental changes using the ecoinformatics tools and the adaptive-evolutionary technology of geoinformation monitoring. The main advantage of this book is that it gathers and presents extensive interdisciplinary expertise in the parameterization of global biogeochemical cycles and other environmental processes in the context of globalization and sustainable development. In this regard, the crucial global problems concerning the dynamics of the nature-society system are considered and the key problems of ensuring the system’s sustainable development are studied. A new approach to the numerical modeling of the nature-society system is proposed and results are provided on modeling the dynamics of the system’s characteristics with regard to scenarios of anthropogenic impacts on biogeochemical cycles, land ecosystems and oceans. The main purpose of this book is to develop a universal guide to information-modeling technologies for assessing the function of environmental subsystems under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions.

Author : Philip J. Rasch
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 337 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781461457671

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Climate Change Modeling Methodology by Philip J. Rasch Pdf

The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.

Author : Nerija Banaitiene
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Page : 600 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2012-09-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789535107477

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Risk Management by Nerija Banaitiene Pdf

Every business and decision involves a certain amount of risk. Risk might cause a loss to a company. This does not mean, however, that businesses cannot take risks. As disengagement and risk aversion may result in missed business opportunities, which will lead to slower growth and reduced prosperity of a company. In today's increasingly complex and diverse environment, it is crucial to find the right balance between risk aversion and risk taking. To do this it is essential to understand the complex, out of the whole range of economic, technical, operational, environmental and social risks associated with the company's activities. However, risk management is about much more than merely avoiding or successfully deriving benefit from opportunities. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks. Lastly, risk management helps a company to handle the risks associated with a rapidly changing business environment.

Author : Cynthia Rosenzweig,David Rind,Andrew Lacis,Danielle Peters
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2018-01-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789813148802

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Our Warming Planet: Topics In Climate Dynamics by Cynthia Rosenzweig,David Rind,Andrew Lacis,Danielle Peters Pdf

The processes and consequences of climate change are extremely heterogeneous, encompassing many different fields of study. Dr David Rind in his career at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and as a professor at Columbia University has had the opportunity to explore many of these subjects with colleagues from these diverse disciplines. It was therefore natural for the Lectures in Climate Change series to begin with his colleagues contributing lectures on their specific areas of expertise.This first volume, entitled Our Warming Planet: Topics in Climate Dynamics, encompasses topics such as natural and anthropogenic climate forcing, climate modeling, radiation, clouds, atmospheric dynamics/storms, hydrology, clouds, the cryosphere, paleoclimate, sea level rise, agriculture, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change education. Included with this publication are downloadable PowerPoint slides of each lecture for students and teachers around the world to be better able to understand various aspects of climate change.The lectures on climate change processes and consequences provide snapshots of the cutting-edge work being done to understand what may well be the greatest challenge of our time, in a form suitable for classroom presentation.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the NSF AGS Draft Science Goals and Objectives
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2014-07-17
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309310512

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Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Document by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the NSF AGS Draft Science Goals and Objectives Pdf

Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Documents is a letter report by an ad hoc committee reviewing the AGS draft goals and objectives. It addresses the following questions: Are the goals and objectives clear and appropriate? Are there any content areas missing from the draft that should be present if AGS is to achieve its overall vision and mission? Are there adequate mechanisms for coordinating and integrating issues that involve multiple disciplines and multiple divisions within NSF and other agencies within the atmospheric and geospace sciences enterprise?