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Audit of assumptions for budget 2008 by Great Britain: National Audit Office Pdf
This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2008 Budget (HC 388, session 2007-8, ISBN 9780102953336)
Audit of Assumptions for Budget 2009 by National Audit Office Pdf
The Chancellor of the Exchequer asked the National Audit Office to audit two new assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2009 Budget (HC 407, session 2008-09, ISBN 9780102959161). Firstly, to assess if the 2008 Pre-Budget report assumption for the trend rate of growth, allowing for a downward adjustment to the trend output level of around 4 per cent, for the post-2006 period, together with the further downward adjustment at Budget 2009 to the trend output level of around 1 per cent, is reasonable and cautious. Secondly, to examine whether the approach used by the Treasury to produce estimates of the fiscal aggregates adjusted for the effects of the economic cycle is reasonable.
Audit of Assumptions for the 2008 Pre-budget Report by Great Britain. National Audit Office Pdf
This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2008 pre-budget report (Cm. 7484, ISBN 9780101748421). A new assumption is also reviewed: that the economic cycle that began in the first half of 1997, as defined by the Treasury, ended in the second half of 2006.
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. The Government reports that the economy is stable and resilient, and continuing to grow, and that its strict fiscal rules are being met. Measures include: further financial support for children to move 250,000 out of poverty; an additional one-off payment for over-80s and over-60s households alongside the Winter Fuel Payment; increased support and access to finance for small firms; a £200 million package to support and bring forward by one year the GCSE targets; postponement of the planned fuel duty increase of 2 pence per litre in April 2008 until October 2008; an increase in alcohol duty rates by 6 per cent from 17 March 2008; laying the ground work for the introduction for five-year carbon budgets (the first of which will be included in Budget 2009); further steps to tackle climate change, including reforms to Vehicle Excise Duty, auctioning of 100 per cent of allowances for large electricity producers in Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and that to eliminate single use carrier bags the Government will legislate and impose a charge if retailers do not take voluntary action; further reforms to modernise the tax system, and a number of measures to combat tax fraud and avoidance. (Supporting publications issued alongside the Budget are "The UK economy: analysis of long-term performance and strategic challenges" and "2008 long-term public finance report", HM Treasury - http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/budget/budget_08/bud_bud08_index.cfm). The National Audit Office "Audit of assumptions Budget 2008" is also available (HC 345, ISBN 9780102953367).
Audit of assumptions for budget 2010 by Great Britain: National Audit Office Pdf
This report examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the fiscal projections within the 2010 Budget (HC 451, session 2009-10, ISBN 9780102964639) that are submitted by the Treasury for examination, along with a review of assumptions on the VAT gap, tobacco revenues, factor shares in national income and funding (debt increase)
Pre-budget Report 2008 by Great Britain. Treasury Pdf
The 2008 Pre-Budget Report presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how in the face of major global economic shocks the Government intends to support the economy, businesses and households through these uncertain times while delivering its long-term goals. Measures announced include: temporarily reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent from1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009; bringing forward £3 billion of capital spending from 2010-11 including introducing a green stimulus supporting low carbon growth and jobs; introducing a new additional higher rate of income tax of 45 per cent for those with incomes above £150,000 from April 2011; increasing national insurance contributions by 0.5 per cent from April 2011; increasing alcohol and tobacco duties; a two pence per litre increase in fuel duty from 1 December). Immediate action to help those individuals and businesses most affected by the economic downturn include: increases in the income tax personal allowance; bringing forward the increase in Child Benefit; increases of the Child Tax Credit and a payment of £60 to all pensioners; help through mortgage rescue and Support for Mortgage Interest schemes for eligible homeowners in difficulty and a commitment from major mortgage lenders not to initiate repossession action within at least three months of an owner-occupier going into arrears; an additional £1.3 billion to support for the unemployed to find a new job; measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises facing credit constraints; a new HMRC Business Payment Support Service to allow businesses in temporary financial difficulty to pay their HMRC tax bills on a timetable they can afford; and more generous tax relief for businesses now making losses and the modification of a number of planned tax reforms, including vehicle excise duty, air passenger duty, and the deferral of the increase in the small companies' rate of corporation tax.
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a 16 billion surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at 37 billion for this year and 36 billion next year, falling to 23 billion in the year to 2010-11.
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a 16 billion surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at 37 billion for this year and 36 billion next year, falling to 23 billion in the year to 2010-11.
Pre-budget Report 2008 by Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee Pdf
The Treasury Committee's report on the Pre-Budget Report 2008 (Cm. 7484, ISBN 9780101748421) considers that the balance of risks to the Treasury's forecast, for a swift recovery in economic growth for 2010 after a significant decline in output in 2009, is on the downside. The report highlights the lack of bank lending as the single most critical problem for the economy in the near term. The overall effect of the fiscal stimulus remains uncertain, the cost of the reduction in VAT is considerable and, in the view of the majority of commentators, the Treasury's analysis of its impact is an optimistic one. The report notes that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflationary cycle exists in the UK economy at present and recommends that the Treasury prepare and publish the actions it may consider taking should a period of "quantitative easing" be needed. While the need for lower interest rates to maintain economic growth is crucial at the present time, the needs of savers must not be forgotten and the Treasury should consider measures that will also support savers at this difficult time. The report notes with concern that the Pre-Budget Report contains no policy measures which will significantly advance meeting the 2010 child poverty target.
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. The Government reports that the economy is stable and resilient, and continuing to grow, and that its strict fiscal rules are being met. Measures include: further financial support for children to move 250,000 out of poverty; an additional one-off payment for over-80s and over-60s households alongside the Winter Fuel Payment; increased support and access to finance for small firms; a £200 million package to support and bring forward by one year the GCSE targets; postponement of the planned fuel duty increase of 2 pence per litre in April 2008 until October 2008; an increase in alcohol duty rates by 6 per cent from 17 March 2008; laying the ground work for the introduction for five-year carbon budgets (the first of which will be included in Budget 2009); further steps to tackle climate change, including reforms to Vehicle Excise Duty, auctioning of 100 per cent of allowances for large electricity producers in Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and that to eliminate single use carrier bags the Government will legislate and impose a charge if retailers do not take voluntary action; further reforms to modernise the tax system, and a number of measures to combat tax fraud and avoidance. (Supporting publications issued alongside the Budget are "The UK economy: analysis of long-term performance and strategic challenges" and "2008 long-term public finance report", HM Treasury - http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/budget/budget_08/bud_bud08_index.cfm). The National Audit Office "Audit of assumptions Budget 2008" is also available (HC 345, ISBN 9780102953367).
Audit of Assumptions for Budget 2006 by Great Britain: National Audit Office Pdf
This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2006 Budget (HCP 968, session 2005-06; ISBN 0102937311).
Audit of Assumptions for the 2005 Pre-budget Report by Great Britain: National Audit Office Pdf
This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the Pre-Budget Report 2005 (Cm 6701 ISBN 0101670125).
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. It focuses on providing support for pensioners and families, increasing employment opportunities and protecting the environment. Measures announced in the 2007 Budget include: basic rate of income tax to be reduced from 22 pence to 20 pence from April 2008; higher rate income tax threshold to be raised by £800 a year in April 2009; Working Tax Credit threshold to be increased by £1200 to £6420 in April 2008; higher personal allowances for those aged 65 or over to be raised by £1180 in April 2008; Child Tax Credit to be increased by £150 per year in April 2008 and Child Benefit for the eldest child to be raised to £20 a week in April 2010; headline Corporation Tax to be lowered from 30 per cent to 28 per cent from April 2008; increase of 2 pence per litre in fuel duty rates from 1 October 2007; changes to Vehicle Excise Duty for the next three years, with rates for the most polluting cars rising to £400 and for clean cars falling to £35; duty on beer and cider rises to 1p a pint, 5p for wine, 11p for cigarettes; Inheriatnce Tax threshold will rise from £285,000 to £350,000 in 2010; ISA savings limit up from £3,000 to £3,600; measures to improve energy efficiency of all homes by the end of the next decade.
Pre-budget Report 2009 by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee Pdf
This report acknowledges that deciding the right time for fiscal consolidation requires making a fine judgement about the resilience of the recovery. It emphasises that a plan to restore the health of the public finances must deal with the structural deficit. While the Treasury aims to cut the deficit from 9% of GDP to 3.6% of GDP in four years, the expert witnesses who examined it all criticised the document for not providing enough information about how this will be achieved. Future Budgets and PBRs should attempt to quantify the downside risks around the structural deficit forecast. There will be uncertainty in these figures, but they are produced as part of the Spending Review process so there appears to be no argument against their publication. Similarly the Bank of England publishes forecasts showing the possible range of inflation rates and publishing information about debt interest on a similar basis would be useful. The recession appears to have had substantially less impact on the labour market than might have been feared, though concern remains about the level of youth unemployment. Repossessions have been far lower than expected however it is recommended that the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing of removal of Government support in this area. We do not want to see a return to the times of easy credit, but the Government needs to remain aware of the risk that lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the public sector retrenches. The purpose of the tax on bank bonuses is to change behaviour so that banks increase their capital, rather than providing large discretionary payments to employees. The next Parliament needs to examine the effectiveness of any regime introduced by the Financial Services Bill, in terms both of its success in altering bank behaviour, and of its effect on the competitiveness of the UK financial sector
