Bayes Or Bust

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Bayes Or Bust?

John Earman
Bayes Or Bust Book PDF

Author : John Earman
Publisher : Bradford Books
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0262050463

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Bayes Or Bust? by John Earman Pdf

There is currently no viable alternative to the Bayesian analysis of scientific inference, yet the available versions of Bayesianism fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirmation of scientific hypotheses. Bayes or Bust? provides the first balanced treatment of the complex set of issues involved in this nagging conundrum in the philosophy of science. Both Bayesians and anti-Bayesians will find a wealth of new insights on topics ranging from Bayes's original paper to contemporary formal learning theory. In a paper published posthumously in 1763, the Reverend Thomas Bayes made a seminal contribution to the understanding of "analogical or inductive reasoning." Building on his insights, modem Bayesians have developed an account of scientific inference that has attracted numerous champions as well as numerous detractors. Earman argues that Bayesianism provides the best hope for a comprehensive and unified account of scientific inference, yet the presently available versions of Bayesianisin fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirming of scientific theories and hypotheses. By focusing on the need for a resolution to this impasse, Earman sharpens the issues on which a resolution turns. John Earman is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

Theories of Scientific Method

Robert Nola,Howard Sankey
Theories of Scientific Method Book PDF

Author : Robert Nola,Howard Sankey
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2014-12-18
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781317493495

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Theories of Scientific Method by Robert Nola,Howard Sankey Pdf

What is it to be scientific? Is there such a thing as scientific method? And if so, how might such methods be justified? Robert Nola and Howard Sankey seek to provide answers to these fundamental questions in their exploration of the major recent theories of scientific method. Although for many scientists their understanding of method is something they just pick up in the course of being trained, Nola and Sankey argue that it is possible to be explicit about what this tacit understanding of method is, rather than leave it as some unfathomable mystery. They robustly defend the idea that there is such a thing as scientific method and show how this might be legitimated. This book begins with the question of what methodology might mean and explores the notions of values, rules and principles, before investigating how methodologists have sought to show that our scientific methods are rational. Part 2 of this book sets out some principles of inductive method and examines its alternatives including abduction, IBE, and hypothetico-deductivism. Part 3 introduces probabilistic modes of reasoning, particularly Bayesianism in its various guises, and shows how it is able to give an account of many of the values and rules of method. Part 4 considers the ideas of philosophers who have proposed distinctive theories of method such as Popper, Lakatos, Kuhn and Feyerabend and Part 5 continues this theme by considering philosophers who have proposed naturalised theories of method such as Quine, Laudan and Rescher. This book offers readers a comprehensive introduction to the idea of scientific method and a wide-ranging discussion of how historians of science, philosophers of science and scientists have grappled with the question over the last fifty years.

Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations

Jon Williamson
Bayesian Nets and Causality Philosophical and Computational Foundations Book PDF

Author : Jon Williamson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780198530794

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Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations by Jon Williamson Pdf

Bayesian nets are used in artificial intelligence as a calculus for causal reasoning, enabling machines to make predictions perform diagnoses, take decisions and even to discover causal relationships. This book brings together how to automate reasoning in artificial intelligence, and the nature of causality and probability in philosophy.

Bayesian Philosophy of Science

Jan Sprenger,Stephan Hartmann
Bayesian Philosophy of Science Book PDF

Author : Jan Sprenger,Stephan Hartmann
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 414 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2019-08-15
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN : 9780199672110

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Bayesian Philosophy of Science by Jan Sprenger,Stephan Hartmann Pdf

How should we reason in science? Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann offer a refreshing take on classical topics in philosophy of science, using a single key concept to explain and to elucidate manifold aspects of scientific reasoning. They present good arguments and good inferences as beingcharacterized by their effect on our rational degrees of belief. Refuting the view that there is no place for subjective attitudes in "objective science", Sprenger and Hartmann explain the value of convincing evidence in terms of a cycle of variations on the theme of representing rational degrees ofbelief by means of subjective probabilities (and changing them by Bayesian conditionalization). In doing so, they integrate Bayesian inference - the leading theory of rationality in social science - with the practice of 21st century science.Bayesian Philosophy of Science thereby shows how modeling such attitudes improves our understanding of causes, explanations, confirming evidence, and scientific models in general. It combines a scientifically minded and mathematically sophisticated approach with conceptual analysis and attention tomethodological problems of modern science, especially in statistical inference, and is therefore a valuable resource for philosophers and scientific practitioners.

The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods

Brian D. Haig
The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods Book PDF

Author : Brian D. Haig
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2018-01-04
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780190871727

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The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods by Brian D. Haig Pdf

The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods focuses on the conceptual foundations of research methods within the behavioral sciences. In particular, it undertakes a close philosophical examination of a variety of quantitative research methods that are prominent in (or relevant for) the conduct of research in these fields. By doing so, the deep structure of these methods is examined in order to overcome the non-critical approaches typically found in the existing literature today. In this book, Brian D. Haig focuses on the more well-known research methods such as exploratory data analysis, statistical significant testing, Bayesian confirmation theory and statistics, meta-analysis, and exploratory factor analysis. These methods are then examined with a philosophy consistent of scientific realism. In addition, each chapter provides a helpful Further Reading section in order to better assist the reader in extending their own thinking and research methods specific to their needs.

Bayesian Reasoning in Data Analysis

Giulio D'Agostini
Bayesian Reasoning in Data Analysis Book PDF

Author : Giulio D'Agostini
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9789812383563

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Bayesian Reasoning in Data Analysis by Giulio D'Agostini Pdf

A multi-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning. The basic ideas of this approach to the quantification of uncertainty are presented using examples from research and everyday life. Applications covered include: parametric inference; combination of results; comparison of hypotheses; and more.

Making 20th Century Science

Stephen G. Brush,Ariel Segal
Making 20th Century Science Book PDF

Author : Stephen G. Brush,Ariel Segal
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 553 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780199978151

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Making 20th Century Science by Stephen G. Brush,Ariel Segal Pdf

Historically, the scientific method has been said to require proposing a theory, making a prediction of something not already known, testing the prediction, and giving up the theory (or substantially changing it) if it fails the test. A theory that leads to several successful predictions is more likely to be accepted than one that only explains what is already known but not understood. This process is widely treated as the conventional method of achieving scientific progress, and was used throughout the twentieth century as the standard route to discovery and experimentation. But does science really work this way? In Making 20th Century Science, Stephen G. Brush discusses this question, as it relates to the development of science throughout the last century. Answering this question requires both a philosophically and historically scientific approach, and Brush blends the two in order to take a close look at how scientific methodology has developed. Several cases from the history of modern physical and biological science are examined, including Mendeleev's Periodic Law, Kekule's structure for benzene, the light-quantum hypothesis, quantum mechanics, chromosome theory, and natural selection. In general it is found that theories are accepted for a combination of successful predictions and better explanations of old facts. Making 20th Century Science is a large-scale historical look at the implementation of the scientific method, and how scientific theories come to be accepted.

Progress in International Relations Theory

Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman
Progress in International Relations Theory Book PDF

Author : Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 524 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2003-08-29
Category : History
ISBN : 026226255X

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Progress in International Relations Theory by Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman Pdf

All academic disciplines periodically appraise their effectiveness, evaluating the progress of previous scholarship and judging which approaches are useful and which are not. Although no field could survive if it did nothing but appraise its progress, occasional appraisals are important and if done well can help advance the field. This book investigates how international relations theorists can better equip themselves to determine the state of scholarly work in their field. It takes as its starting point Imre Lakatos's influential theory of scientific change, and in particular his methodology of scientific research programs (MSRP). It uses MSRP to organize its analysis of major research programs over the last several decades and uses MSRP's criteria for theoretical progress to evaluate these programs. The contributors appraise the progress of institutional theory, varieties of realist and liberal theory, operational code analysis, and other research programs in international relations. Their analyses reveal the strengths and limits of Lakatosian criteria and the need for metatheoretical metrics for evaluating scientific progress.

Science in Court

Michael Freeman,Helen Reece
Science in Court Book PDF

Author : Michael Freeman,Helen Reece
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-05-23
Category : Law
ISBN : 9780429791963

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Science in Court by Michael Freeman,Helen Reece Pdf

First published in 1998, this volume contains essays from leading thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic on the relationship between law and science. Science plays an ever-increasing part in the development of legislation and the adjudication of cases. Its limitations and its value are explored in these essays which discuss issues of methodology and of evidence. Amongst areas covered are silicone breast implants, the rape trauma syndrome, the environment, inventions and Bayesianism.

The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science

Martin Curd,Stathis Psillos
The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science Book PDF

Author : Martin Curd,Stathis Psillos
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 736 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2013-07-24
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781135011093

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The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science by Martin Curd,Stathis Psillos Pdf

The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science is an indispensable reference source and guide to the major themes, debates, problems and topics in philosophy of science. It contains sixty-two specially commissioned entries by a leading team of international contributors. Organized into four parts it covers: historical and philosophical context debates concepts the individual sciences. The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science addresses all of the essential topics that students of philosophy of science need to know - from empiricism, explanation and experiment to causation, observation, prediction and more - and contains many helpful features including chapters on individual sciences (such as biology, chemistry, physics and psychology), further reading and cross-referencing at the end of each chapter. Expanded and revised throughout, this second edition includes new chapters on Conventionalism, Social Epistemology, Computer Simulation, Thought Experiments, Pseudoscience, Species and Taxonomy, and Cosmology.

Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 1

Michael G. Titelbaum
Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 1 Book PDF

Author : Michael G. Titelbaum
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 217 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2022
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN : 9780198707608

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Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 1 by Michael G. Titelbaum Pdf

'Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology' provides an accessible introduction to the key concepts and principles of the Bayesian formalism. This volume introduces degrees of belief as a concept in epistemology and the rules for updating degrees of belief derived from Bayesian principles.--

Likelihood, Bayesian, and MCMC Methods in Quantitative Genetics

Daniel Sorensen,Daniel Gianola
Likelihood Bayesian and MCMC Methods in Quantitative Genetics Book PDF

Author : Daniel Sorensen,Daniel Gianola
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 740 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2006-05-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780387227641

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Likelihood, Bayesian, and MCMC Methods in Quantitative Genetics by Daniel Sorensen,Daniel Gianola Pdf

This book, suitable for numerate biologists and for applied statisticians, provides the foundations of likelihood, Bayesian and MCMC methods in the context of genetic analysis of quantitative traits. Although a number of excellent texts in these areas have become available in recent years, the basic ideas and tools are typically described in a technically demanding style and contain much more detail than necessary. Here, an effort has been made to relate biological to statistical parameters throughout, and the book includes extensive examples that illustrate the developing argument.

Bayesian Epistemology

Luc Bovens,Stephan Hartmann
Bayesian Epistemology Book PDF

Author : Luc Bovens,Stephan Hartmann
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2004-01-08
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780191533525

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Bayesian Epistemology by Luc Bovens,Stephan Hartmann Pdf

Probabilistic models have much to offer to philosophy. We continually receive information from a variety of sources: from our senses, from witnesses, from scientific instruments. When considering whether we should believe this information, we assess whether the sources are independent, how reliable they are, and how plausible and coherent the information is. Bovens and Hartmann provide a systematic Bayesian account of these features of reasoning. Simple Bayesian Networks allow us to model alternative assumptions about the nature of the information sources. Measurement of the coherence of information is a controversial matter: arguably, the more coherent a set of information is, the more confident we may be that its content is true, other things being equal. The authors offer a new treatment of coherence which respects this claim and shows its relevance to scientific theory choice. Bovens and Hartmann apply this methodology to a wide range of much discussed issues regarding evidence, testimony, scientific theories, and voting. Bayesian Epistemology is an essential tool for anyone working on probabilistic methods in philosophy, and has broad implications for many other disciplines.

The Agnostic Inquirer

Sandra Menssen,Thomas D. Sullivan
The Agnostic Inquirer Book PDF

Author : Sandra Menssen,Thomas D. Sullivan
Publisher : Wm. B. Eerdmans Publishing
Page : 348 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2007-09-19
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780802803948

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The Agnostic Inquirer by Sandra Menssen,Thomas D. Sullivan Pdf

A startling achievement....I cannot overemphasize how original and groundbreaking this work is, or recommend this book too highly. The argument throughout is clear, succinct, and rigorous. It represents the highest standards of analytical philosophy. All future work, if it is to be up to speed, will have to deal with what Menssen and Sullivan have done.

Bayesian Methods

Jeff Gill
Bayesian Methods Book PDF

Author : Jeff Gill
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 696 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2007-11-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781584885627

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Bayesian Methods by Jeff Gill Pdf

The first edition of Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach helped pave the way for Bayesian approaches to become more prominent in social science methodology. While the focus remains on practical modeling and basic theory as well as on intuitive explanations and derivations without skipping steps, this second edition incorporates the latest methodology and recent changes in software offerings. New to the Second Edition Two chapters on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that cover ergodicity, convergence, mixing, simulated annealing, reversible jump MCMC, and coupling Expanded coverage of Bayesian linear and hierarchical models More technical and philosophical details on prior distributions A dedicated R package (BaM) with data and code for the examples as well as a set of functions for practical purposes such as calculating highest posterior density (HPD) intervals Requiring only a basic working knowledge of linear algebra and calculus, this text is one of the few to offer a graduate-level introduction to Bayesian statistics for social scientists. It first introduces Bayesian statistics and inference, before moving on to assess model quality and fit. Subsequent chapters examine hierarchical models within a Bayesian context and explore MCMC techniques and other numerical methods. Concentrating on practical computing issues, the author includes specific details for Bayesian model building and testing and uses the R and BUGS software for examples and exercises.