Bayesian Analysis With Python

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Bayesian Analysis with Python

Osvaldo Martin
Bayesian Analysis with Python Book PDF

Author : Osvaldo Martin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2016-11-25
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN : 1785883801

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Bayesian Analysis with Python by Osvaldo Martin Pdf

Unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian frameworkAbout This Book- Simplify the Bayes process for solving complex statistical problems using Python; - Tutorial guide that will take the you through the journey of Bayesian analysis with the help of sample problems and practice exercises; - Learn how and when to use Bayesian analysis in your applications with this guide.Who This Book Is ForStudents, researchers and data scientists who wish to learn Bayesian data analysis with Python and implement probabilistic models in their day to day projects. Programming experience with Python is essential. No previous statistical knowledge is assumed.What You Will Learn- Understand the essentials Bayesian concepts from a practical point of view- Learn how to build probabilistic models using the Python library PyMC3- Acquire the skills to sanity-check your models and modify them if necessary- Add structure to your models and get the advantages of hierarchical models- Find out how different models can be used to answer different data analysis questions - When in doubt, learn to choose between alternative models.- Predict continuous target outcomes using regression analysis or assign classes using logistic and softmax regression.- Learn how to think probabilistically and unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian frameworkIn DetailThe purpose of this book is to teach the main concepts of Bayesian data analysis. We will learn how to effectively use PyMC3, a Python library for probabilistic programming, to perform Bayesian parameter estimation, to check models and validate them. This book begins presenting the key concepts of the Bayesian framework and the main advantages of this approach from a practical point of view. Moving on, we will explore the power and flexibility of generalized linear models and how to adapt them to a wide array of problems, including regression and classification. We will also look into mixture models and clustering data, and we will finish with advanced topics like non-parametrics models and Gaussian processes. With the help of Python and PyMC3 you will learn to implement, check and expand Bayesian models to solve data analysis problems.Style and approachBayes algorithms are widely used in statistics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data mining. This will be a practical guide allowing the readers to use Bayesian methods for statistical modelling and analysis using Python.

Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python

Osvaldo A. Martin,Ravin Kumar,Junpeng Lao
Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python Book PDF

Author : Osvaldo A. Martin,Ravin Kumar,Junpeng Lao
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 420 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2021-12-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781000520040

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Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python by Osvaldo A. Martin,Ravin Kumar,Junpeng Lao Pdf

Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.

Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Cameron Davidson-Pilon
Bayesian Methods for Hackers Book PDF

Author : Cameron Davidson-Pilon
Publisher : Addison-Wesley Professional
Page : 549 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2015-09-30
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780133902921

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Bayesian Methods for Hackers by Cameron Davidson-Pilon Pdf

Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Think Bayes

Allen Downey
Think Bayes Book PDF

Author : Allen Downey
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Page : 213 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2013-09-12
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781491945445

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Think Bayes by Allen Downey Pdf

If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,David B. Dunson,Aki Vehtari,Donald B. Rubin
Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition Book PDF

Author : Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,David B. Dunson,Aki Vehtari,Donald B. Rubin
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 677 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2013-11-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781439840955

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Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,David B. Dunson,Aki Vehtari,Donald B. Rubin Pdf

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Think Bayes

Allen B. Downey
Think Bayes Book PDF

Author : Allen B. Downey
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-18
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781492089438

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Think Bayes by Allen B. Downey Pdf

If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems

Bayesian Analysis with Python

Osvaldo Martin
Bayesian Analysis with Python Book PDF

Author : Osvaldo Martin
Publisher : Packt Publishing Ltd
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2016-11-25
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781785889851

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Bayesian Analysis with Python by Osvaldo Martin Pdf

Unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework About This Book Simplify the Bayes process for solving complex statistical problems using Python; Tutorial guide that will take the you through the journey of Bayesian analysis with the help of sample problems and practice exercises; Learn how and when to use Bayesian analysis in your applications with this guide. Who This Book Is For Students, researchers and data scientists who wish to learn Bayesian data analysis with Python and implement probabilistic models in their day to day projects. Programming experience with Python is essential. No previous statistical knowledge is assumed. What You Will Learn Understand the essentials Bayesian concepts from a practical point of view Learn how to build probabilistic models using the Python library PyMC3 Acquire the skills to sanity-check your models and modify them if necessary Add structure to your models and get the advantages of hierarchical models Find out how different models can be used to answer different data analysis questions When in doubt, learn to choose between alternative models. Predict continuous target outcomes using regression analysis or assign classes using logistic and softmax regression. Learn how to think probabilistically and unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework In Detail The purpose of this book is to teach the main concepts of Bayesian data analysis. We will learn how to effectively use PyMC3, a Python library for probabilistic programming, to perform Bayesian parameter estimation, to check models and validate them. This book begins presenting the key concepts of the Bayesian framework and the main advantages of this approach from a practical point of view. Moving on, we will explore the power and flexibility of generalized linear models and how to adapt them to a wide array of problems, including regression and classification. We will also look into mixture models and clustering data, and we will finish with advanced topics like non-parametrics models and Gaussian processes. With the help of Python and PyMC3 you will learn to implement, check and expand Bayesian models to solve data analysis problems. Style and approach Bayes algorithms are widely used in statistics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data mining. This will be a practical guide allowing the readers to use Bayesian methods for statistical modelling and analysis using Python.

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

Will Kurt
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way Book PDF

Author : Will Kurt
Publisher : No Starch Press
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2019-07-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781593279561

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Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by Will Kurt Pdf

Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Statistical Rethinking

Richard McElreath
Statistical Rethinking Book PDF

Author : Richard McElreath
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 489 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2018-01-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781482253481

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Statistical Rethinking by Richard McElreath Pdf

Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics

Ben Lambert
A Student s Guide to Bayesian Statistics Book PDF

Author : Ben Lambert
Publisher : SAGE
Page : 744 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2018-04-20
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781526418265

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A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics by Ben Lambert Pdf

Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics. Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds upon key concepts in a gradual way and slowly acclimatizes students to using R and Stan software, the book covers: An introduction to probability and Bayesian inference Understanding Bayes′ rule Nuts and bolts of Bayesian analytic methods Computational Bayes and real-world Bayesian analysis Regression analysis and hierarchical methods This unique guide will help students develop the statistical confidence and skills to put the Bayesian formula into practice, from the basic concepts of statistical inference to complex applications of analyses.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition

Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,Donald B. Rubin
Bayesian Data Analysis Second Edition Book PDF

Author : Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,Donald B. Rubin
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 717 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2003-07-29
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781420057294

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Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition by Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,Donald B. Rubin Pdf

Incorporating new and updated information, this second edition of THE bestselling text in Bayesian data analysis continues to emphasize practice over theory, describing how to conceptualize, perform, and critique statistical analyses from a Bayesian perspective. Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include: Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collection Bayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

Bayes' Rule

James V. Stone
Bayes Rule Book PDF

Author : James V. Stone
Publisher : Sebtel Press
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2013-06-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780956372840

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Bayes' Rule by James V. Stone Pdf

In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis

John Kruschke
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis Book PDF

Author : John Kruschke
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 776 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2014-11-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780124059160

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Doing Bayesian Data Analysis by John Kruschke Pdf

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes’ rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling Examples with R programming language and JAGS software Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis) Coverage of experiment planning R and JAGS computer programming code on website Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs

Bayesian Analysis with Python

Osvaldo Martin
Bayesian Analysis with Python Book PDF

Author : Osvaldo Martin
Publisher : Packt Publishing Ltd
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2018-12-26
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781789349665

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Bayesian Analysis with Python by Osvaldo Martin Pdf

Bayesian modeling with PyMC3 and exploratory analysis of Bayesian models with ArviZ Key FeaturesA step-by-step guide to conduct Bayesian data analyses using PyMC3 and ArviZA modern, practical and computational approach to Bayesian statistical modelingA tutorial for Bayesian analysis and best practices with the help of sample problems and practice exercises.Book Description The second edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python is an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian inference and its practical implementation in Python using PyMC3, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and ArviZ, a new library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. The main concepts of Bayesian statistics are covered using a practical and computational approach. Synthetic and real data sets are used to introduce several types of models, such as generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, hierarchical models, and Gaussian processes, among others. By the end of the book, you will have a working knowledge of probabilistic modeling and you will be able to design and implement Bayesian models for your own data science problems. After reading the book you will be better prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if you need to. What you will learnBuild probabilistic models using the Python library PyMC3 Analyze probabilistic models with the help of ArviZ Acquire the skills required to sanity check models and modify them if necessary Understand the advantages and caveats of hierarchical modelsFind out how different models can be used to answer different data analysis questionsCompare models and choose between alternative onesDiscover how different models are unified from a probabilistic perspective Think probabilistically and benefit from the flexibility of the Bayesian frameworkWho this book is for If you are a student, data scientist, researcher, or a developer looking to get started with Bayesian data analysis and probabilistic programming, this book is for you. The book is introductory so no previous statistical knowledge is required, although some experience in using Python and NumPy is expected.

Bayesian Statistical Methods

Brian J. Reich,Sujit K. Ghosh
Bayesian Statistical Methods Book PDF

Author : Brian J. Reich,Sujit K. Ghosh
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 275 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2019-04-12
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429510915

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Bayesian Statistical Methods by Brian J. Reich,Sujit K. Ghosh Pdf

Bayesian Statistical Methods provides data scientists with the foundational and computational tools needed to carry out a Bayesian analysis. This book focuses on Bayesian methods applied routinely in practice including multiple linear regression, mixed effects models and generalized linear models (GLM). The authors include many examples with complete R code and comparisons with analogous frequentist procedures. In addition to the basic concepts of Bayesian inferential methods, the book covers many general topics: Advice on selecting prior distributions Computational methods including Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Model-comparison and goodness-of-fit measures, including sensitivity to priors Frequentist properties of Bayesian methods Case studies covering advanced topics illustrate the flexibility of the Bayesian approach: Semiparametric regression Handling of missing data using predictive distributions Priors for high-dimensional regression models Computational techniques for large datasets Spatial data analysis The advanced topics are presented with sufficient conceptual depth that the reader will be able to carry out such analysis and argue the relative merits of Bayesian and classical methods. A repository of R code, motivating data sets, and complete data analyses are available on the book’s website. Brian J. Reich, Associate Professor of Statistics at North Carolina State University, is currently the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics and was awarded the LeRoy & Elva Martin Teaching Award. Sujit K. Ghosh, Professor of Statistics at North Carolina State University, has over 22 years of research and teaching experience in conducting Bayesian analyses, received the Cavell Brownie mentoring award, and served as the Deputy Director at the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute.