Think Bayes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Think Bayes book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.
If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems
Bayes Rules! by Alicia A. Johnson,Miles Q. Ott,Mine Dogucu Pdf
Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.
If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge using the tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. You'll work with a case study throughout the book to help you learn the entire data analysis process—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. Along the way, you'll become familiar with distributions, the rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. Develop your understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Learn topics not usually covered in an introductory course, such as Bayesian estimation Import data from almost any source using Python, rather than be limited to data that has been cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
Dive into Python's advanced possibilities, including algorithm analysis, graphs, scale-free networks, and cellular automata with this in-depth, hands-on guide.
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge, using tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. By working with a single case study throughout this thoroughly revised book, you’ll learn the entire process of exploratory data analysis—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. You’ll explore distributions, rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. New chapters on regression, time series analysis, survival analysis, and analytic methods will enrich your discoveries. Develop an understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Import data from most sources with Python, rather than rely on data that’s cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
Bayesian Methods for Hackers by Cameron Davidson-Pilon Pdf
Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,David B. Dunson,Aki Vehtari,Donald B. Rubin Pdf
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics by Ben Lambert Pdf
Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics. Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds upon key concepts in a gradual way and slowly acclimatizes students to using R and Stan software, the book covers: An introduction to probability and Bayesian inference Understanding Bayes′ rule Nuts and bolts of Bayesian analytic methods Computational Bayes and real-world Bayesian analysis Regression analysis and hierarchical methods This unique guide will help students develop the statistical confidence and skills to put the Bayesian formula into practice, from the basic concepts of statistical inference to complex applications of analyses.
Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
Probability and Bayesian Modeling by Jim Albert,Jingchen Hu Pdf
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Bayesian Thinking in Biostatistics by Gary L Rosner,Purushottam W. Laud,Wesley O. Johnson Pdf
Praise for Bayesian Thinking in Biostatistics: "This thoroughly modern Bayesian book ...is a 'must have' as a textbook or a reference volume. Rosner, Laud and Johnson make the case for Bayesian approaches by melding clear exposition on methodology with serious attention to a broad array of illuminating applications. These are activated by excellent coverage of computing methods and provision of code. Their content on model assessment, robustness, data-analytic approaches and predictive assessments...are essential to valid practice. The numerous exercises and professional advice make the book ideal as a text for an intermediate-level course..." -Thomas Louis, Johns Hopkins University "The book introduces all the important topics that one would usually cover in a beginning graduate level class on Bayesian biostatistics. The careful introduction of the Bayesian viewpoint and the mechanics of implementing Bayesian inference in the early chapters makes it a complete self- contained introduction to Bayesian inference for biomedical problems....Another great feature for using this book as a textbook is the inclusion of extensive problem sets, going well beyond construed and simple problems. Many exercises consider real data and studies, providing very useful examples in addition to serving as problems." - Peter Mueller, University of Texas With a focus on incorporating sensible prior distributions and discussions on many recent developments in Bayesian methodologies, Bayesian Thinking in Biostatistics considers statistical issues in biomedical research. The book emphasizes greater collaboration between biostatisticians and biomedical researchers. The text includes an overview of Bayesian statistics, a discussion of many of the methods biostatisticians frequently use, such as rates and proportions, regression models, clinical trial design, and methods for evaluating diagnostic tests. Key Features Applies a Bayesian perspective to applications in biomedical science Highlights advances in clinical trial design Goes beyond standard statistical models in the book by introducing Bayesian nonparametric methods and illustrating their uses in data analysis Emphasizes estimation of biomedically relevant quantities and assessment of the uncertainty in this estimation Provides programs in the BUGS language, with variants for JAGS and Stan, that one can use or adapt for one's own research The intended audience includes graduate students in biostatistics, epidemiology, and biomedical researchers, in general Authors Gary L. Rosner is the Eli Kennerly Marshall, Jr., Professor of Oncology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Professor of Biostatistics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Purushottam (Prakash) W. Laud is Professor in the Division of Biostatistics, and Director of the Biostatistics Shared Resource for the Cancer Center, at the Medical College of Wisconsin. Wesley O. Johnson is professor Emeritus in the Department of Statistics as the University of California, Irvine.
Currently used at many colleges, universities, and high schools, this hands-on introduction to computer science is ideal for people with little or no programming experience. The goal of this concise book is not just to teach you Java, but to help you think like a computer scientist. You’ll learn how to program—a useful skill by itself—but you’ll also discover how to use programming as a means to an end. Authors Allen Downey and Chris Mayfield start with the most basic concepts and gradually move into topics that are more complex, such as recursion and object-oriented programming. Each brief chapter covers the material for one week of a college course and includes exercises to help you practice what you’ve learned. Learn one concept at a time: tackle complex topics in a series of small steps with examples Understand how to formulate problems, think creatively about solutions, and write programs clearly and accurately Determine which development techniques work best for you, and practice the important skill of debugging Learn relationships among input and output, decisions and loops, classes and methods, strings and arrays Work on exercises involving word games, graphics, puzzles, and playing cards
If you understand basic mathematics and know how to program with Python, you’re ready to dive into signal processing. While most resources start with theory to teach this complex subject, this practical book introduces techniques by showing you how they’re applied in the real world. In the first chapter alone, you’ll be able to decompose a sound into its harmonics, modify the harmonics, and generate new sounds. Author Allen Downey explains techniques such as spectral decomposition, filtering, convolution, and the Fast Fourier Transform. This book also provides exercises and code examples to help you understand the material. You’ll explore: Periodic signals and their spectrums Harmonic structure of simple waveforms Chirps and other sounds whose spectrum changes over time Noise signals and natural sources of noise The autocorrelation function for estimating pitch The discrete cosine transform (DCT) for compression The Fast Fourier Transform for spectral analysis Relating operations in time to filters in the frequency domain Linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory Amplitude modulation (AM) used in radio Other books in this series include Think Stats and Think Bayes, also by Allen Downey.