Bayesian Networks For Probabilistic Inference And Decision Analysis In Forensic Science

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Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann,Silvia Bozza,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken
Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Book PDF

Author : Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann,Silvia Bozza,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 472 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2014-07-21
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118914748

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Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science by Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann,Silvia Bozza,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken Pdf

"This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation" Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. • Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. • Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. • Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. • Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. • Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. • Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. • Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. • Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science

Franco Taroni,Colin Aitken,Paolo Garbolino,Alex Biedermann
Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science Book PDF

Author : Franco Taroni,Colin Aitken,Paolo Garbolino,Alex Biedermann
Publisher : Wiley
Page : 372 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2006-04-07
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470091738

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Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science by Franco Taroni,Colin Aitken,Paolo Garbolino,Alex Biedermann Pdf

The amount of information forensic scientists are able to offer is ever increasing, owing to vast developments in science and technology. Consequently, the complexity of evidence does not allow scientists to cope adequately with the problems it causes, or to make the required inferences. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, specifically Bayesian networks, offers a powerful tool to deal with this complexity, and discover valid patterns in data. Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian networks for the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Includes self-contained introductions to both Bayesian networks and probability. Features implementation of the methodology using HUGIN, the leading Bayesian networks software. Presents basic standard networks that can be implemented in commercially and academically available software packages, and that form the core models necessary for the reader’s own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing uncertain data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for constructing coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of forensic evidence. Written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by David Schum. The clear and accessible style makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists and applied statisticians working in evidence evaluation, as well as graduate students in these areas. It will also appeal to scientists, lawyers and other professionals interested in the evaluation of forensic evidence and/or Bayesian networks.

Data Analysis in Forensic Science

Franco Taroni,Silvia Bozza,Alex Biedermann,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken
Data Analysis in Forensic Science Book PDF

Author : Franco Taroni,Silvia Bozza,Alex Biedermann,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2010-03-19
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470665076

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Data Analysis in Forensic Science by Franco Taroni,Silvia Bozza,Alex Biedermann,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken Pdf

This is the first text to examine the use of statistical methods in forensic science and bayesian statistics in combination. The book is split into two parts: Part One concentrates on the philosophies of statistical inference. Chapter One examines the differences between the frequentist, the likelihood and the Bayesian perspectives, before Chapter Two explores the Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective further, and looks at the benefits it carries. Part Two then introduces the reader to the practical aspects involved: the application, interpretation, summary and presentation of data analyses are all examined from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. A wide range of statistical methods, essential in the analysis of forensic scientific data is explored. These include the comparison of allele proportions in populations, the comparison of means, the choice of sampling size, and the discrimination of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Throughout this practical appraisal there are a wide variety of examples taken from the routine work of forensic scientists. These applications are demonstrated in the ever-more popular R language. The reader is taken through these applied examples in a step-by-step approach, discussing the methods at each stage.

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R

Silvia Bozza,Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann
Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R Book PDF

Author : Silvia Bozza,Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2022-10-31
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783031098390

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Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R by Silvia Bozza,Franco Taroni,Alex Biedermann Pdf

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: Probabilistic Inference - Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. Decision Making - Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. Operational Relevance - Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes. This book is Open Access.

Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology

Zuzana Obertová,Alistair Stewart,Cristina Cattaneo
Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology Book PDF

Author : Zuzana Obertová,Alistair Stewart,Cristina Cattaneo
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 434 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2020-07-28
Category : Law
ISBN : 9780128157657

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Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology by Zuzana Obertová,Alistair Stewart,Cristina Cattaneo Pdf

Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology provides a practical guide for forensic scientists, primarily anthropologists and pathologists, on how to design studies, how to choose and apply statistical approaches, and how to interpret statistical outcomes in the forensic practice. As with other forensic, medical and biological disciplines, statistics have become increasingly important in forensic anthropology and legal medicine, but there is not a single book, which specifically addresses the needs of forensic anthropologists in relation to the research undertaken in the field and the interpretation of research outcomes and case findings within the setting of legal proceedings. The book includes the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for the research and the interpretation of findings in forensic anthropology, as well as general chapters on study design and statistical approaches addressing measurement errors and reliability. Scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, pathology and related disciplines is used throughout. Additionally, Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology facilitates sufficient understanding of the statistical procedures and data interpretation based on statistical outcomes and models, which helps the reader confidently present their work within the forensic context, either in the form of case reports for legal purposes or as research publications for the scientific community. Contains the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for forensic anthropology research and the interpretation of findings Provides examples of study designs and their statistical solutions, partly following the layout of scientific manuscripts on common topics in the field Includes scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, legal medicine and related disciplines

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks Book PDF

Author : Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 638 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781351978972

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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by Norman Fenton,Martin Neil Pdf

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Forensic Examination of Fibres

James Robertson,Claude Roux,Kenneth G. Wiggins
Forensic Examination of Fibres Book PDF

Author : James Robertson,Claude Roux,Kenneth G. Wiggins
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2017-12-01
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781439830710

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Forensic Examination of Fibres by James Robertson,Claude Roux,Kenneth G. Wiggins Pdf

In order for forensic fibre examiners to fully utilize fibre and textile evidence during their analysis, they require not only specialised forensic knowledge but also in-depth knowledge of fibres, yarns and fabrics themselves. Production, both the chemical and physical structure, and the properties of these materials is required in order to determine the value of fibre evidence. This includes knowing production figures, fashion changes, sudden arrivals of new materials, dye variability, and numerous other factors that may have a bearing on the information obtained. Fully updated with the latest advances, Forensic Examination of Fibres, Third Edition continues in the tradition of the First (1992) and Second Editions (1999) as the premier text on the subject of forensic fibre analysis. The international team of contributing authors detail the recovery of the evidence—through the different stages of laboratory examination—to the evaluation of the meaning of findings. The coverage has been considerably expanded, and all material, has been revised and wholly updated. Topics covered include examining damaged textiles, infrared microspectroscopy and thin layer chomatography, and colour analyses. This edition also highlights the critical role of quality assurance in ensuring the reliability of the technical observations and results, and, in doing so, looks at the implications of supervisory managers and labs in the accurate and responsible analysis of such evidence. Features include: Outlining evidentiary process from collecting and preserving the evidence at the crime scene through the laboratory analysis of fibres Detailing the latest developments and emerging technologies including Kevlar and other such advances in fibre technology Coverage of a broad array of fibres both, natural (cellulose, protein, and mineral) and man-made fibres including synthetic, inorganic and regenerated Forensic Examination of Fibres, Third Edition is a much-needed update to the classic book, serving as an indispensable reference to crime scene technicians, laboratory forensic scientists and microscopists, students in police, forensic, and justice science programs.

Bayesian Networks

Olivier Pourret,Patrick Naïm,Bruce Marcot
Bayesian Networks Book PDF

Author : Olivier Pourret,Patrick Naïm,Bruce Marcot
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 446 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2008-04-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470994541

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Bayesian Networks by Olivier Pourret,Patrick Naïm,Bruce Marcot Pdf

Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation, Second Edition

John S. Buckleton,Jo-Anne Bright,Duncan Taylor
Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation Second Edition Book PDF

Author : John S. Buckleton,Jo-Anne Bright,Duncan Taylor
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 496 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2016-04-21
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781482258929

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Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation, Second Edition by John S. Buckleton,Jo-Anne Bright,Duncan Taylor Pdf

Now in its second edition, Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation is the most comprehensive resource for DNA casework available today. Written by leaders in the fields of biology and statistics, including a contribution from Peter Gill, the father of DNA analysis, the book emphasizes the interpretation of test results and provides the necessary formulae in an easily accessible manner. This latest edition is fully updated and includes current and emerging techniques in this fast-moving field. The book begins by reviewing all pertinent biology, and then provides information on every aspect of DNA analysis. This includes modern interpretation methods and contemporary population genetic models available for estimating DNA frequencies or likelihood ratios. Following a chapter on procedures for validating databases, the text presents overviews and performance assessments of both modern sampling uncertainty methods and current paternity testing techniques, including new guidelines on paternity testing in alignment with the International Society for Forensic Genetics. Later chapters discuss the latest methods for mixture analysis, LCN (ultra trace) analysis and non-autosomal (mito, X, and Y) DNA analysis. The text concludes with an overview of procedures for disaster victim identification and information on DNA intelligence databases. Highlights of the second edition include: New information about PCR processes, heterozygote balance and back and forward stuttering New information on the interpretation of low template DNA, drop models and continuous models Additional coverage of lineage marker subpopulation effects, mixtures and combinations with autosomal markers This authoritative book provides a link among the biological, forensic, and interpretative domains of the DNA profiling field. It continues to serve as an invaluable resource that allows forensic scientists, technicians, molecular biologists and attorneys to use forensic DNA evidence to its greatest potential.

Chain Event Graphs

Rodrigo A. Collazo,Christiane Goergen,Jim Q. Smith
Chain Event Graphs Book PDF

Author : Rodrigo A. Collazo,Christiane Goergen,Jim Q. Smith
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2018-01-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351646833

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Chain Event Graphs by Rodrigo A. Collazo,Christiane Goergen,Jim Q. Smith Pdf

Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Görgen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).

The Routledge International Handbook of Forensic Intelligence and Criminology

Quentin Rossy,David Décary-Hétu,Olivier Delémont,Massimiliano Mulone
The Routledge International Handbook of Forensic Intelligence and Criminology Book PDF

Author : Quentin Rossy,David Décary-Hétu,Olivier Delémont,Massimiliano Mulone
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 407 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781134889020

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The Routledge International Handbook of Forensic Intelligence and Criminology by Quentin Rossy,David Décary-Hétu,Olivier Delémont,Massimiliano Mulone Pdf

Despite a shared focus on crime and its ‘extended family’, forensic scientists and criminologists tend to work in isolation rather than sharing the data, methods and knowledge that will broaden the understanding of the criminal phenomenon and its related subjects. Bringing together perspectives from international experts, this book explores the intersection between criminology and forensic science and considers how knowledge from both fields can contribute to a better understanding of crime and offer new directions in theory and methodology. This handbook is divided into three parts: Part I explores the epistemological and historical components of criminology and forensic science, focusing on their scientific and social origins. Part II considers how collaboration between these disciplines can bring about a better understanding of the organizations and institutions that react to crime, including the court, intelligence, prevention, crime scene investigation and policing. Part III discusses the phenomena and actors that produce crime, including a reflection on the methodological issues, challenges and rewards regarding the sharing of these two disciplines. The objective of this handbook is to stimulate a ‘new’ interdisciplinary take on the study of crime, to show how both forensic and criminological theories and knowledge can be combined to analyse crime problems and to open new methodological perspectives. It will be essential reading for students and researchers engaged with forensic science, criminology, criminal behaviour, criminal investigation, crime analysis and criminal justice.

Fingerprints and Other Ridge Skin Impressions

Christophe Champod,Chris J. Lennard,Pierre Margot,Milutin Stoilovic
Fingerprints and Other Ridge Skin Impressions Book PDF

Author : Christophe Champod,Chris J. Lennard,Pierre Margot,Milutin Stoilovic
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 428 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2017-12-19
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781315353210

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Fingerprints and Other Ridge Skin Impressions by Christophe Champod,Chris J. Lennard,Pierre Margot,Milutin Stoilovic Pdf

Since its publication, the first edition of Fingerprints and Other Ridge Skin Impressions has become a classic in the field. This second edition is completely updated, focusing on the latest technology and techniques—including current detection procedures, applicable processing and analysis methods—all while incorporating the expansive growth of literature on the topic since the publication of the original edition. Forensic science has been challenged in recent years as a result of errors, courts and other scientists contesting verdicts, and changes of a fundamental nature related to previous claims of infallibility and absolute individualization. As such, these factors represent a fundamental change in the way training, identifying, and reporting should be conducted. This book addresses these questions with a clear viewpoint as to where the profession—and ridge skin identification in particular—must go and what efforts and research will help develop the field over the next several years. The second edition introduces several new topics, including Discussion of ACE-V and research results from ACE-V studies Computerized marking systems to help examiners produce reports New probabilistic models and decision theories about ridge skin evidence interpretation, introducing Bayesnet tools Fundamental understanding of ridge mark detection techniques, with the introduction of new aspects such as nanotechnology, immunology and hyperspectral imaging Overview of reagent preparation and application Chapters cover all aspects of the subject, including the formation of friction ridges on the skin, the deposition of latent marks, ridge skin mark identification, the detection and enhancement of such marks, as well the recording of fingerprint evidence. The book serves as an essential reference for practitioners working in the field of fingermark detection and identification, as well as legal and police professionals and anyone studying forensic science with a view to understanding current thoughts and challenges in dactyloscopy.

Explaining the Evidence

David A. Lagnado
Explaining the Evidence Book PDF

Author : David A. Lagnado
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-10-21
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781107006003

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Explaining the Evidence by David A. Lagnado Pdf

This book explores how we investigate the world and make sense of complex evidence, revealing both our strengths and flaws.

The Dialogue Between Forensic Scientists, Statisticians and Lawyers about Complex Scientific Issues for Court

Sue Pope,Alex Biedermann
The Dialogue Between Forensic Scientists Statisticians and Lawyers about Complex Scientific Issues for Court Book PDF

Author : Sue Pope,Alex Biedermann
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-08
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9782889660490

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The Dialogue Between Forensic Scientists, Statisticians and Lawyers about Complex Scientific Issues for Court by Sue Pope,Alex Biedermann Pdf

This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact.

Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation

Duncan Taylor,Bas Kokshoorn
Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation Book PDF

Author : Duncan Taylor,Bas Kokshoorn
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 565 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2023-05-30
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781000801415

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Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation by Duncan Taylor,Bas Kokshoorn Pdf

Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation: Activity Level Propositions and Likelihood Ratios provides all foundational information required for a reader to understand the practice of evaluating forensic biology evidence given activity level propositions and to implement the practice into active casework within a forensic institution. The book begins by explaining basic concepts and foundational theory, pulling together research and studies that have accumulated in forensic journal literature over the last 20 years. The book explains the laws of probability - showing how they can be used to derive, from first principles, the likelihood ratio - used throughout the book to express the strength of evidence for any evaluation. Concepts such as the hierarchy of propositions, the difference between experts working in an investigative or evaluative mode and the practice of case assessment and interpretation are explained to provide the reader with a broad grounding in the topics that are important to understanding evaluation of evidence. Activity level evaluations are discussed in relation to biological material transferred from one object to another, the ability for biological material to persist on an item for a period of time or through an event, the ability to recover the biological material from the object when sampled for forensic testing and the expectations of the prevalence of biological material on objects in our environment. These concepts of transfer, persistence, prevalence and recovery are discussed in detail in addition to the factors that affect each of them. The authors go on to explain the evaluation process: how to structure case information and formulate propositions. This includes how a likelihood ratio formula can be derived to evaluate the forensic findings, introducing Bayesian networks and explaining what they represent and how they can be used in evaluations and showing how evaluation can be tested for robustness. Using these tools, the authors also demonstrate the ways that the methods used in activity level evaluations are applied to questions about body fluids. There are also chapters dedicated to reporting of results and implementation of activity level evaluation in a working forensic laboratory. Throughout the book, four cases are used as examples to demonstrate how to relate the theory to practice and detail how laboratories can integrate and implement activity level evaluation into their active casework.