Booms Crises And Recoveries A New Paradigm Of The Business Cycle And Its Policy Implications

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2017-11-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484325759

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Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications by Ms.Valerie Cerra,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : A. W. Mullineux
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105000177167

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Business Cycles and Financial Crises by A. W. Mullineux Pdf

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author : Ms. Valerie Cerra,Mai Hakamada,Mr. Ruy Lama
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484325278

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Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries by Ms. Valerie Cerra,Mai Hakamada,Mr. Ruy Lama Pdf

One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.

Author : Ms.Wenjie Chen,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Mr.Malhar S Nabar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2019-04-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498305426

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The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis by Ms.Wenjie Chen,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Mr.Malhar S Nabar Pdf

This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.

Author : Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2019-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789210479387

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Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2019 by Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Pdf

The region has seen tremendous economic and social progress over the last 50 years, However, despite progress on many fronts, the region is not on track to meet many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The gains from economic growth are not being shared by all. Available jobs do not fully translate into decent work. The region is home to five of the world’s 10 countries most affected by climate risks. Policies are needed to maintain growth momentum while enhancing the drivers of sustainable development. The Survey explores the critical role of investment for SDG requirements.

Author : Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Ms.Deniz O Igan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2018-06-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484380826

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IMF Research Perspectives by Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Ms.Deniz O Igan Pdf

IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.

Author : Francesco Luna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2019-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484397022

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Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises by Francesco Luna Pdf

Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.

Author : Michael P. Niemira
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 427 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2023-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000895384

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Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists by Michael P. Niemira Pdf

Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists provides the tools, the theory, and the empirical understanding of macroeconomics without the heavy lifting of the mathematical and econometric models. This accessible book introduces the building blocks of macroeconomic thinking and challenges the reader to apply these insights to learn why economists say what they do and what guides economic policymakers. Linking actual data to theoretical concepts, it explores competing economic theories, and uncovers some of the key controversies in macroeconomic theory and how different perspectives lead to alternative and vastly different policy recommendations. Key features include: • Coverage of all the key macroeconomic topics, such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, output and productivity, business cycles, aggregate demand/supply, and fiscal and monetary policy. • Question-and-answer format, covering the foundations of each topic in a logical progression, to provide the reader with a quick reference and more focused discussion. • "Advanced questions" to encourage deeper discussion. • Start-of-chapter learning objectives, which allow the reader to "see" the road ahead for each section. • End-of-chapter "Issues to think about" boxed features, which offer the reader an opportunity to apply critical thinking to the issues covered. • Resource manual and PowerPoints for instructors. Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists is the ideal textbook for anyone looking for a practical and non-technical introduction to the subject.

Author : Ms.Ana Corbacho,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 311 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2018-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513558905

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The ASEAN Way by Ms.Ana Corbacho,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris Pdf

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Author : Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484376379

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Systemic Banking Crises Revisited by Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia Pdf

This paper updates the database on systemic banking crises presented in Laeven and Valencia (2008, 2013). Drawing on 151 systemic banking crises episodes around the globe during 1970-2017, the database includes information on crisis dates, policy responses to resolve banking crises, and the fiscal and output costs of crises. We provide new evidence that crises in high-income countries tend to last longer and be associated with higher output losses, lower fiscal costs, and more extensive use of bank guarantees and expansionary macro policies than crises in low- and middle-income countries. We complement the banking crises dates with sovereign debt and currency crises dates to find that sovereign debt and currency crises tend to coincide or follow banking crises.

Author : Weicheng Lian,Jose Ramon Moran,Raadhika Vishvesh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2022-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400227172

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Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects by Weicheng Lian,Jose Ramon Moran,Raadhika Vishvesh Pdf

This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.

Author : Valerie Cerra,Barry Eichengreen,Asmaa El-Ganainy,Martin Schindler
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 901 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2022-01-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192846938

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How to Achieve Inclusive Growth by Valerie Cerra,Barry Eichengreen,Asmaa El-Ganainy,Martin Schindler Pdf

This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility, unbalanced growth due to technology and globalization, and existential danger from climate change are urgent global concerns of our day. These issues are intertwined. They therefore require a holistic framework to examine their interplay and bring the various strands together. Leading academic economists have partnered with experts from several international institutions to explain the sources and scale of these challenges. They gather a wide array of empirical evidence and country experiences to lay out practical policy solutions and to devise a comprehensive and unified plan of action for combatting these economic and social disparities. This authoritative book is accessible to policy makers, students, and the general public interested in how to craft a brighter future by building a sustainable, green, and inclusive society in the years ahead.

Author : Piero Ferri
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
ISBN : 9781788973731

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Minsky’s Moment by Piero Ferri Pdf

At its core this book sets out the analytical and methodological foundations of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis (FIH). Grounded on the joint work of Piero Ferri and Hyman Minsky, it offers insightful analysis from a unique insider's perspective. The objective is to deepen and enlarge the toolbox used by Minsky and to place the analysis within a dynamic perspective where a meta model, based upon regime switching, can encompass the different forms that the FIH can assume.