Hysteresis And Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : A. W. Mullineux
Publisher : Bookboon
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 9788776818852

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Business Cycles and Financial Crises by A. W. Mullineux Pdf

Author : Dmitry Plotnikov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2014-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484371749

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Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries by Dmitry Plotnikov Pdf

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.

Author : Paul A. Volcker
Publisher : New York : Free Press
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105035446728

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The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle by Paul A. Volcker Pdf

Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 613 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226978925

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Business Cycles by Victor Zarnowitz Pdf

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Author : Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji
Publisher : Crown Currency
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2004-05-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780385512589

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Beating the Business Cycle by Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji Pdf

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Author : Solomos Solomou
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105023181741

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Economic Cycles by Solomos Solomou Pdf

The author analyzes pre-war, inter-war, and post-war business cycles, then examines two long cycle perspectives that have been developed to understand the past: Kondratieff waves of 50-year cycles and Kuznets swings of 20 years. He argues that long fluctuations within the European bloc may re-emerge, with the gold standard era providing some interesting insights into the cyclical paths expected. A glossary is included. Paper edition (unseen), $27.95. Distributed by St. Martin's Press. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Author : James Arthur Estey
Publisher : Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall
Page : 518 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 1956
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : PSU:000056592634

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Business Cycles by James Arthur Estey Pdf

Author : Joseph A. Schumpeter
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 672 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1939
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : UOM:39015003838250

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Business Cycles by Joseph A. Schumpeter Pdf

Author : F.A. Hayek
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2012-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135745202

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Business Cycles by F.A. Hayek Pdf

In the years following its publication, F. A. Hayek's pioneering work on business cycles was regarded as an important challenge to what was later known as Keynesian macroeconomics. Today, as debates rage on over the monetary origins of the current economic and financial crisis, economists are once again paying heed to Hayek's thoughts on the repercussions of excessive central bank interventions. The latest editions in Routledge's ongoing series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek's work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy. Moving away from the classical emphasis on equilibrium, Hayek demonstrates that business cycles are generated by the adaptation of the structure of production to changes in relative demand. Thus, when central banks artificially lower interest rates, the result is a misallocation of capital and the creation of asset bubbles and additional instability. Business Cycles: Part I contains Hayek's two major monographs on the topic: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle and Prices and Production. Reproducing the text of the original 1933 translation of the former, this edition also draws on the original German, as well as more recent translations. For Prices and Production, a variorum edition is presented, incorporating the 1931 first edition and its 1935 revision. Business Cycles: Part II assembles a series of Hayek's shorter papers on the topic, ranging from the 1920s to 1981. In addition to bringing together Hayek's work on the evolution of business cycles, the two volumes of Business Cycles also include extensive introductions by Hansjoerg Klausinger, placing the writings in intellectual context, including their reception and the theoretical debates to which they contributed, and providing background on the evolution of Hayek's thought.

Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 524 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 1927
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : UCAL:$B470774

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Business Cycles by Wesley Clair Mitchell Pdf

"First printing, July, 1927.""A rewriting, based on new and fuller statistical material, of his book on 'Business cycles, ' published in 1913"--Foreword.

Author : Harlan Linneus McCracken
Publisher : The Minerva Group, Inc.
Page : 301 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780894990670

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Value Theory and Business Cycles by Harlan Linneus McCracken Pdf

Value Theory and Business Cycles was originally published in 1933 during the great depression. It is the purpose of the present study to show the vital relation between business cycle theory and value theory. In fact, the study is intended to contribute quite as definitely to the economics of value as of business cycles. Section I deals with embodied value theory and price movements. Section II deals with business cycles in relation to the marginal utility theory of value, as developed by the Austrian School. Section III deals directly with the problem of business equilibration, showing how certain forces contribute to instability, and suggesting ways and means of the achievement of greater business stability. The positive argument in this work may follow quite successfully by reading the first chapter in Section I and then proceeding directly to Sections II and III. -This book covers such topics as: -Why production does not finance consumption -Why supply does not beget demand -Why prices do not gravitate to the equilibrium point that clears the market -How a partial depression generates a general depression -Why the repeal of the antitrust laws and the promotion of unrestricted monopoly will not necessarily make business more stable-What the dangers of "greenbackism" really are-How the gold standard is unstable -Why liquidation fails to liquidate in time of depression.

Author : Philip A. Klein
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2019-07-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315492278

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Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore by Philip A. Klein Pdf

This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.

Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585

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Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch Pdf

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 642 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1913
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : STANFORD:36105004970724

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Business Cycles by Wesley Clair Mitchell Pdf