Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 2
Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 2 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 2 book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 2 by Eva R. Porras Pdf
This book focuses on extending the models and theories (from a mathematical/statistical point of view) which were introduced in the first volume to a more technical level. Where volume I provided an introduction to the mathematics of bubbles and contagion, volume II digs far more deeply and widely into the modeling aspects.
Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 by E. Porras Pdf
Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition by Harold L. Vogel Pdf
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Contagion in Financial Markets by Friedrich L. Sell Pdf
This book aims to integrate the notions of contagion in epidemiology and contagion in financial market crises to discover why emerging markets are so susceptible to financial crises. The author first provides a brief introduction of the contagious spill-over of recent financial market crises and models the pattern of these crises. He finds that the contagion between crises in emerging markets, such as that of the crises in Russia and Brazil in 1998-1999, is explicable, despite the fact that at first sight they appear to have little in common. Finally, Friedrich Sell integrates these findings to outline a proposal for a 'new international financial architecture'.
International Financial Contagion by Stijn Claessens,Kirsten Forbes Pdf
No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
Discrimination, Vulnerable Consumers and Financial Inclusion by Cătălin-Gabriel Stănescu,Asress Adimi Gikay Pdf
This book addresses the questions of discrimination, vulnerable consumers, and financial inclusion in the light of the emerging legal, socioeconomic, and technological challenges. New technologies – such as artificial intelligence-driven consumer credit risk assessment and Fintech platforms, the changing nature of vulnerability due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the sophistication of digital technologies, which help circumvent legal barriers and protections – necessitate the continuous study of the existing legal frameworks and measures that are capable of tackling these challenges. Organized in two major parts, the first addresses, from multiple national angles, the idea of a human rights approach to consumer law, in order to replace the mantra of economic efficiency that characterizes financial services with those of human dignity and freedom from discrimination and from debt-induced servitude. The second tackles the challenges posed by increased usage of technology in connection with financial services, which tends to solve, but also creates, additional issues for consumers in general, and for vulnerable groups in particular.
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by Harold L. Vogel Pdf
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
This book provides a thorough explanation of the nature and history of booms, bubbles and busts in financial markets. The first part of the book deals with financial booms and bubbles and how they emerge, develop and collapse. It describes the distribution of wealth, inflation, rationality of bankers, monetary and fiscal policy, the role of central banks, tax policies, social security, US federal, state, municipal and personal debt, and valuation of common stocks. The book describes historical boom/bust cycles including bubbles of the 1720s, the Florida land boom and the stock market in the 1920s, the depression of the 1930s, the S&L scandal of the 1980s, the great bull market of 1982-1995, the crash of 1987, the dot.com mania of 1995-2000, corporate swindles of the 1990s and 2000s, the sub-prime fiasco of the 2000s, and Japan in the late 20th century. Most of the recent wealth generation has derived from increased debt and appreciation of paper assets. The architects of the new economics were Ronald Reagan and Arthur Greenspan. Inevitably, the US Government’s cure for excessive spending and inadequate revenues is to increase spending and cut revenues. American voters must choose between “tax and spend” Democrats and “spend and borrow” Republicans. The theme of American finance was uttered by VP Cheney: “Deficits don’t matter”.
Contagion Phenomena with Applications in Finance by Serge Darolles,Christian Gourieroux Pdf
Much research into financial contagion and systematic risks has been motivated by the finding that cross-market correlations (resp. coexceedances) between asset returns increase significantly during crisis periods. Is this increase due to an exogenous shock common to all markets (interdependence) or due to certain types of transmission of shocks between markets (contagion)? Darolles and Gourieroux explain that an attempt to convey contagion and causality in a static framework can be flawed due to identification problems; they provide a more precise definition of the notion of shock to strengthen the solution within a dynamic framework. This book covers the standard practice for defining shocks in SVAR models, impulse response functions, identitification issues, static and dynamic models, leading to the challenges of measurement of systematic risk and contagion, with interpretations of hedge fund survival and market liquidity risks Features the standard practice of defining shocks to models to help you to define impulse response and dynamic consequences Shows that identification of shocks can be solved in a dynamic framework, even within a linear perspective Helps you to apply the models to portfolio management, risk monitoring, and the analysis of financial stability
A Tale of Two Crises by Seetharam Kallidaikurichi Pdf
Some analysts looked at the 1997/98 East Asian crisis not as one crisis but as a combination of crises, beginning with a crisis of confidence and evolving into a currency crisis, a financial crisis, an economic crisis, a social crisis and a political crisis. This book is a multidisciplinary study of financial crises, in particular, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the more recent global financial crisis of 2008. Looking at financial crises not as one crisis, but as a combination of crises beginning with a crisis of confidence, this study steps out of the traditional mould and examines financial crises from novel perspectives. The book highlights that since the origin of a financial crisis is a confidence crisis, either in the whole economy or a particular sector, the Asian and recent global crises could have backward and forward linkages to political regimes and institutions, culture and tradition, the role of the media, society and societal evolution and development processes of regulatory regimes. Through contributions by authors in fields ranging from sociology and political science, media and Islamic banking, to law and regulation, this study adopts a broad framework for understanding financial crises, and sheds light on the interwoven and complex structures and often overlooked aspects which contribute to the holistic understanding of this topic.
Australia's Economy in Its International Context, Volume 2: 1956–2012 by Kym Anderson Pdf
This two-volume collection brings together the first 56 Joseph Fisher Lectures in economics and commerce, presented at the Adelaide University every other year since 1904. Funds for the Lectures, together with a medal for the top accounting student each year, were kindly provided by a £1,000 endowment to the University by the prominent Adelaide businessman Joseph Fisher in 1903. The Lectures address a wide range of Australian economic issues, in addition to some international economic issues of national significance. They have stood the test of time extremely well, while also providing a reminder of the events and concerns that were prominent at different times during the past century.
Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes) by Moffitt Steven D Pdf
Volume 1 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets," — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the "predictable irrationality" of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency. A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called "market inefficiencies" and "stylized facts." A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the "Fundamental Laws of Gambling." Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of "gambling rationality" (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of "rationality." By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price "distorters"), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step "Strategic Analysis of Market Method." Examples are given in this and Volume 2. Volume 2 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets" — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders. But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory "backtesting" literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
