Financial Market Bubbles And Crashes

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Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Harold L. Vogel
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Book PDF

Author : Harold L. Vogel
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 619 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2021-12-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030791827

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Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by Harold L. Vogel Pdf

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition

Harold L. Vogel
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition Book PDF

Author : Harold L. Vogel
Publisher : Springer
Page : 477 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2018-08-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319715285

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Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition by Harold L. Vogel Pdf

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Bubbles and Crashes

Brent Goldfarb,David A Kirsch
Bubbles and Crashes Book PDF

Author : Brent Goldfarb,David A Kirsch
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2019-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781503607934

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Bubbles and Crashes by Brent Goldfarb,David A Kirsch Pdf

“An interesting take on some factors that facilitate the development and bursting of bubbles in technology industries. . . . Highly recommended.” —Choice Financial market bubbles are recurring, often painful, reminders of the costs and benefits of capitalism. While many books have studied financial manias and crises, most fail to compare times of turmoil with times of stability. In Bubbles and Crashes, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch give us new insights into the causes of speculative booms and busts. They identify a class of assets—major technological innovations—that can, but does not necessarily, produce bubbles. This methodological twist is essential: Only by comparing similar events that sometimes lead to booms and busts can we ascertain the root causes of bubbles. Using a sample of eighty-eight technologies spanning 150 years, Goldfarb and Kirsch find that four factors play a key role in these episodes: the degree of uncertainty surrounding a particular innovation; the attentive presence of novice investors; the opportunity to directly invest in companies that specialize in the technology; and whether or not a technology is a good protagonist in a narrative. Goldfarb and Kirsch consider the implications of their analysis for technology bubbles that may be in the works today, offer tools for investors to identify whether a bubble is happening, and propose policy measures that may mitigate the risks associated with future speculative episodes.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Harold L. Vogel
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Book PDF

Author : Harold L. Vogel
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 386 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2014-06-09
Category : Electronic books
ISBN : 1316100804

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Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by Harold L. Vogel Pdf

This book explains how and why financial bubbles and crashes occur.

Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets

Stefan Palan
Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets Book PDF

Author : Stefan Palan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 188 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2009-10-02
Category : Capital market
ISBN : 3642021484

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Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by Stefan Palan Pdf

This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets. In addition, the book formulates concrete new research hypotheses for future studies.

Boom and Bust

William Quinn,John D. Turner
Boom and Bust Book PDF

Author : William Quinn,John D. Turner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 297 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2020-08-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781108421256

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Boom and Bust by William Quinn,John D. Turner Pdf

Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? Boom and Bust reveals why bubbles happen, and why some bubbles have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences, whilst others have actually benefited society.

Bubbles, Booms, and Busts

Donald Rapp
Bubbles Booms and Busts Book PDF

Author : Donald Rapp
Publisher : Springer
Page : 374 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2014-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781493910922

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Bubbles, Booms, and Busts by Donald Rapp Pdf

This book deals at some length with the question: Since there are many more poor than rich, why don’t the poor just tax the rich heavily and reduce the inequality? In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, the topic of inequality was discussed widely. Ending or reducing inequality was a prime motivating factor in the emergence of communism and socialism. The book discusses why later in the 20th century, inequality has faded out as an issue. Extensive tables and graphs of data are presented showing the extent of inequality in America, as well as globally. It is shown that a combination of low taxes on capital gains contributed to a series of real estate and stock bubbles that provided great wealth to the top tiers, while real income for average workers stagnated. Improved commercial efficiency due to computers, electronics, the Internet and fast transport allowed production and distribution with fewer workers, just as the advent of electrification, mechanization, production lines, vehicles and trains in the 1920s and 1930s produced the same stagnating effect.

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien
Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them Book PDF

Author : Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2017-08-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789813223868

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Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them by Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien Pdf

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years. We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations. The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models. Contents: IntroductionDiscovery of the Bond–Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelPrediction of the 2007–2009 Stock Market Crashes in the US, China and IcelandThe High Price–Earnings Stock Market Danger Approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD ModelOther Prediction Models for the Big Crashes Averaging –25%Effect of Fed Meetings and Small-Cap DominanceUsing Zweig's Monetary and Momentum Models in the Modern EraAnalysis and Possible Prediction of Declines in the –5% to –15% RangeA Stopping Rule Model for Exiting Bubble-like Markets with ApplicationsA Simple Procedure to Incorporate Predictive Models in Stochastic Investment Models

The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos

G.P. Dwyer,R.W. Hafer
The Stock Market Bubbles Volatility and Chaos Book PDF

Author : G.P. Dwyer,R.W. Hafer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401578813

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The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos by G.P. Dwyer,R.W. Hafer Pdf

Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Didier Sornette
Why Stock Markets Crash Book PDF

Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 448 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2017-03-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691175959

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Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette Pdf

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

The Last Three Stock Market Crashes. Can Boom and Bust Be Predicted?

Arthur Ritter
The Last Three Stock Market Crashes Can Boom and Bust Be Predicted Book PDF

Author : Arthur Ritter
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2015-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783656956334

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The Last Three Stock Market Crashes. Can Boom and Bust Be Predicted? by Arthur Ritter Pdf

Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 15 (2,0), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Corporate Financial Management, language: English, abstract: Stock market crashes had occurred in the financial market since the very beginning and in every generation (Sornette, 2003a). “Greed, hubris and systemic fluctuations have given us the Tulip Mania, the South Sea bubble, the land booms in the 1920s and 1980s, the U.S. stock market and great crash in 1929, the October 1987 crash, to name just a few of the hundreds of ready examples“ (Sornette, 2003a, p. 7.). This essay will compare and contrast the last three major stock market crashes in 1987, 2000 and 2007. To do this, the essay will pay special emphasis on the causes of the three crashes. From there the essay will draw out the similarities and differences and will answer the question if boom and bust can be predicted.

Asset Price Bubbles

William Curt Hunter,George G. Kaufman,Michael Pomerleano
Asset Price Bubbles Book PDF

Author : William Curt Hunter,George G. Kaufman,Michael Pomerleano
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 650 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262582538

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Asset Price Bubbles by William Curt Hunter,George G. Kaufman,Michael Pomerleano Pdf

A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.

Bubbles, Crashes and Financial Disasters

Ralph Lyons
Bubbles Crashes and Financial Disasters Book PDF

Author : Ralph Lyons
Publisher : Austin Macauley Publishers
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2024-05-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781035836130

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Bubbles, Crashes and Financial Disasters by Ralph Lyons Pdf

Throughout history, the allure of promising opportunities has often ignited a speculative frenzy, arousing the get-rich-quick syndrome in millions of credulous souls, driving them to the extremes of ambition and greed in their quest for wealth. The symptoms of such behaviour frequently manifest during the build-up to a market crash, when months or even years of gains are wiped out in mere hours. This phenomenon is known as the ‘boom-and-bust scenario’, characterized by an economic bubble followed by a devastating crash. In this book, we delve into a number of remarkable events that have taken place between the seventeenth century and the present day, culminating in enormous financial losses for the general public or even the collapse of entire economies. The Great Crash of 1929 and some of the instances depicted from the 1980s onwards had seismic effects felt on a global scale. Today, despite living in a highly sophisticated world of economic regulation, financial manipulation, and extensive application of fiscal policy, economic bubbles still seem to burgeon from invisible beginnings, grow rapidly out of control, and then fragment into a melee of problems for modern society. While many believe that the random forces of human nature are responsible, spiralling out of control during periods of heady speculation, others share a different view. They argue that large economic bubbles are non-organic, engineered from within the system itself. This book takes a light-hearted journey through the subject matter, considering both the historical events and the intriguing possibility that financial engineering plays a role in the creation and destruction of economic bubbles.

Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles

György Komáromi
Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles Book PDF

Author : György Komáromi
Publisher : ICFAI Books
Page : 129 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2006-11-14
Category : Business enterprises
ISBN : 9788131404089

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Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles by György Komáromi Pdf

This book presents one of the most controversial happenings in economics stock market bubbles. The author discusses this topic threadbare and provides a critical analysis of related literature from different economic schools. This book also presents analy

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1

E. Porras
Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets Volume 1 Book PDF

Author : E. Porras
Publisher : Springer
Page : 289 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2016-06-29
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781137358769

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Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 by E. Porras Pdf

Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.