Author : John Cohen
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 201 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 1972
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1037115878
Chance, Skill, and Luck
John Cohen
Chance Skill And Luck
Chance Skill And Luck Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Chance Skill And Luck book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
The Success Equation
Michael J. Mauboussin
Author : Michael J. Mauboussin
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781422184233
The Success Equation by Michael J. Mauboussin Pdf
In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin offers the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck, offering concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage by making better decisions.
Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2008-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781588367679
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
Luck, Logic, and White Lies
Jörg Bewersdorff
Author : Jörg Bewersdorff
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 498 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000372090
Luck, Logic, and White Lies by Jörg Bewersdorff Pdf
Praise for the First Edition "Luck, Logic, and White Lies teaches readers of all backgrounds about the insight mathematical knowledge can bring and is highly recommended reading among avid game players, both to better understand the game itself and to improve one’s skills." – Midwest Book Review "The best book I've found for someone new to game math is Luck, Logic and White Lies by Jörg Bewersdorff. It introduces the reader to a vast mathematical literature, and does so in an enormously clear manner. . ." – Alfred Wallace, Musings, Ramblings, and Things Left Unsaid "The aim is to introduce the mathematics that will allow analysis of the problem or game. This is done in gentle stages, from chapter to chapter, so as to reach as broad an audience as possible . . . Anyone who likes games and has a taste for analytical thinking will enjoy this book." – Peter Fillmore, CMS Notes Luck, Logic, and White Lies: The Mathematics of Games, Second Edition considers a specific problem—generally a game or game fragment and introduces the related mathematical methods. It contains a section on the historical development of the theories of games of chance, and combinatorial and strategic games. This new edition features new and much refreshed chapters, including an all-new Part IV on the problem of how to measure skill in games. Readers are also introduced to new references and techniques developed since the previous edition. Features Provides a uniquely historical perspective on the mathematical underpinnings of a comprehensive list of games Suitable for a broad audience of differing mathematical levels. Anyone with a passion for games, game theory, and mathematics will enjoy this book, whether they be students, academics, or game enthusiasts Covers a wide selection of topics at a level that can be appreciated on a historical, recreational, and mathematical level. Jörg Bewersdorff (1958) studied mathematics from 1975 to 1982 at the University of Bonn and earned his PhD in 1985. In the same year, he started his career as game developer and mathematician. He served as the general manager of the subsidiaries of Gauselmann AG for more than two decades where he developed electronic gaming machines, automatic payment machines, and coin-operated Internet terminals. Dr. Bewersdorff has authored several books on Galois theory (translated in English and Korean), mathematical statistics, and object-oriented programming with JavaScript.
The Biggest Bluff
Maria Konnikova
Author : Maria Konnikova
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-23
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780525522638
The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova Pdf
The New York Times bestseller! A New York Times Notable Book “The tale of how Konnikova followed a story about poker players and wound up becoming a story herself will have you riveted, first as you learn about her big winnings, and then as she conveys the lessons she learned both about human nature and herself.” —The Washington Post It's true that Maria Konnikova had never actually played poker before and didn't even know the rules when she approached Erik Seidel, Poker Hall of Fame inductee and winner of tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and convinced him to be her mentor. But she knew her man: a famously thoughtful and broad-minded player, he was intrigued by her pitch that she wasn't interested in making money so much as learning about life. She had faced a stretch of personal bad luck, and her reflections on the role of chance had led her to a giant of game theory, who pointed her to poker as the ultimate master class in learning to distinguish between what can be controlled and what can't. And she certainly brought something to the table, including a Ph.D. in psychology and an acclaimed and growing body of work on human behavior and how to hack it. So Seidel was in, and soon she was down the rabbit hole with him, into the wild, fiercely competitive, overwhelmingly masculine world of high-stakes Texas Hold'em, their initial end point the following year's World Series of Poker. But then something extraordinary happened. Under Seidel's guidance, Konnikova did have many epiphanies about life that derived from her new pursuit, including how to better read, not just her opponents but far more importantly herself; how to identify what tilted her into an emotional state that got in the way of good decisions; and how to get to a place where she could accept luck for what it was, and what it wasn't. But she also began to win. And win. In a little over a year, she began making earnest money from tournaments, ultimately totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. She won a major title, got a sponsor, and got used to being on television, and to headlines like "How one writer's book deal turned her into a professional poker player." She even learned to like Las Vegas. But in the end, Maria Konnikova is a writer and student of human behavior, and ultimately the point was to render her incredible journey into a container for its invaluable lessons. The biggest bluff of all, she learned, is that skill is enough. Bad cards will come our way, but keeping our focus on how we play them and not on the outcome will keep us moving through many a dark patch, until the luck once again breaks our way.
Chase, Chance, and Creativity
James H. Austin
Author : James H. Austin
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2003-08-15
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 0262250101
Chase, Chance, and Creativity by James H. Austin Pdf
A personal story of the ways in which persistence, chance, and creativity interact in biomedical research. This first book by the author of Zen and the Brain examines the role of chance in the creative process. James Austin tells a personal story of the ways in which persistence, chance, and creativity interact in biomedical research; the conclusions he reaches shed light on the creative process in any field. Austin shows how, in his own investigations, unpredictable events shaped the outcome of his research and brought about novel results. He then goes beyond this story of serendipity to propose a new classification of the varieties of chance, drawing on his own research and examples from the history of science—including the famous accidents that led Fleming to the discovery of penicillin. Finally, he explores the nature of the creative process, considering not only the environmental and neurophysiological correlates of creativity but also the role of intuition in both scientific discoveries and spiritual quests. This updated MIT Press paperback edition includes a new introduction and recent material on medical research, creativity, and spirituality.
Success and Luck
Robert H. Frank
Author : Robert H. Frank
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 202 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691178301
Success and Luck by Robert H. Frank Pdf
From New York Times bestselling author and economics columnist Robert Frank, a compelling book that explains why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in their success, why that hurts everyone, and what we can do about it How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine. In Success and Luck, bestselling author and New York Times economics columnist Robert Frank explores the surprising implications of those findings to show why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in success—and why that hurts everyone, even the wealthy. Frank describes how, in a world increasingly dominated by winner-take-all markets, chance opportunities and trivial initial advantages often translate into much larger ones—and enormous income differences—over time; how false beliefs about luck persist, despite compelling evidence against them; and how myths about personal success and luck shape individual and political choices in harmful ways. But, Frank argues, we could decrease the inequality driven by sheer luck by adopting simple, unintrusive policies that would free up trillions of dollars each year—more than enough to fix our crumbling infrastructure, expand healthcare coverage, fight global warming, and reduce poverty, all without requiring painful sacrifices from anyone. If this sounds implausible, you'll be surprised to discover that the solution requires only a few, noncontroversial steps. Compellingly readable, Success and Luck shows how a more accurate understanding of the role of chance in life could lead to better, richer, and fairer economies and societies.
Understanding Human Motivation
Donald Laming
Author : Donald Laming
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780470775189
Understanding Human Motivation by Donald Laming Pdf
Understanding Human Motivation is a lively presentation of how factors such as biological nature, instinct, past experience, and society determine what we do. Draws on many different domains of human behavior and links together many motivational factors such as fear, sex, consciousness, and rage. Illustrates the theoretical bases of motivation through real-life examples and case studies. Written in accessible manner for use in courses.
Teaching Statistical Concepts
Anne Hawkins,Flavia Jolliffe,Leslie Glickman
Author : Anne Hawkins,Flavia Jolliffe,Leslie Glickman
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 257 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2014-09-19
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781317898092
Teaching Statistical Concepts by Anne Hawkins,Flavia Jolliffe,Leslie Glickman Pdf
There is growing recognition that statistics should be part of the core curriculum for the compulsory schooling of all children, leading to a now urgent need for teachers to be trained in both statistical content and appropriate teaching methods. This book lays the foundation for teacher's responses to these changes, exploring how best to teach those applied skills which are now seen to be a more relevant part of the content of statistical courses.
The Myth of Luck
Steven D. Hales
Author : Steven D. Hales
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2020-07-23
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781350149304
The Myth of Luck by Steven D. Hales Pdf
Humanity has thrown everything we have at implacable luck-novel theologies, entire philosophical movements, fresh branches of mathematics-and yet we seem to have gained only the smallest edge on the power of fortune. The Myth of Luck tells us why we have been fighting an unconquerable foe. Taking us on a guided tour of one of our oldest concepts, we begin in ancient Greece and Rome, considering how Plato, Plutarch, and the Stoics understood luck, before entering the theoretical world of probability and exploring how luck relates to theology, sports, ethics, gambling, knowledge, and present-day psychology. As we travel across traditions, times and cultures, we come to realize that it's not that as soon as we solve one philosophical problem with luck that two more appear, like heads on a hydra, but rather that the monster is altogether mythological. We cannot master luck because there is nothing to defeat: luck is no more than a persistent and troubling illusion. By introducing us to compelling arguments and convincing reasons that explain why there is no such thing as luck, we finally see why in a very real sense we make our own luck, that luck is our own doing. The Myth of Luck helps us to regain our own agency in the world - telling the entertaining story of the philosophy and history of luck along the way.
The Philosophy of Luck
Duncan Pritchard,Lee John Whittington
Author : Duncan Pritchard,Lee John Whittington
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-02
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119030577
The Philosophy of Luck by Duncan Pritchard,Lee John Whittington Pdf
This is the first volume of its kind to provide a curated collection of cutting-edge scholarship on the philosophy of luck Offers an in-depth examination of the concept of luck, which has often been overlooked in philosophical study Includes discussions of luck from a range of philosophical perspectives, including ethics, epistemology, metaphysics, and cognitive science Examines the role of luck in core philosophical problems, such as free will Features work from the main philosophers writing on luck today
Characteristics of Games
George Skaff Elias,Richard Garfield,K. Robert Gutschera
Author : George Skaff Elias,Richard Garfield,K. Robert Gutschera
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 331 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-08
Category : Games & Activities
ISBN : 9780262542692
Characteristics of Games by George Skaff Elias,Richard Garfield,K. Robert Gutschera Pdf
Understanding games--whether computer games, card games, board games, or sports--by analyzing certain common traits. Characteristics of Games offers a new way to understand games: by focusing on certain traits--including number of players, rules, degrees of luck and skill needed, and reward/effort ratio--and using these characteristics as basic points of comparison and analysis. These issues are often discussed by game players and designers but seldom written about in any formal way. This book fills that gap. By emphasizing these player-centric basic concepts, the book provides a framework for game analysis from the viewpoint of a game designer. The book shows what all genres of games--board games, card games, computer games, and sports--have to teach each other. Today's game designers may find solutions to design problems when they look at classic games that have evolved over years of playing.
Random Justice
Neil Duxbury
Author : Neil Duxbury
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2002-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199253536
Random Justice by Neil Duxbury Pdf
This controversial book explores the potential for the use of lotteries in social, and particularly legal, decision-making contexts. Neil Duxbury considers in detail the history, advantages, and drawbacks of deciding issues of social significance by lot and argues that the value of the lottery as a legal decision-making device has generally been underestimated.
Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour
Willem A. Wagenaar
Author : Willem A. Wagenaar
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2016-10-14
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781134879298
Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour by Willem A. Wagenaar Pdf
Why does a large proportion of the population engage in some form of gambling, although they know they are most likely to lose, and that the gambling industry makes huge profits? Do gamblers simply accept their losses as fate, or do they believe that they will be able to overcome the negative odds in some miraculous way? The paradox is complicated by the fact that those habitual gamblers who are most aware that systematic losses cannot be avoided, are the least likely to stop gambling. Detailed analyses of actual gambling behaviour have shown gamblers to be victims of a variety of cognitive illusions, which lead them to believe that the general statistical rules of determining the probability of loss do not apply to them as individuals. The designers of gambling games cleverly exploit these illusions in order to promote a false perception of the situation. Much of the earlier interest in gambling behaviour has been centred on the traditional theories of human decision-making, where decisions are portrayed as choices among bets. This led to a tradition of studying decision-making in experiments on betting. In this title, originally published in 1988, the author argues that betting behaviour should not be used as a typical example of human decision-making upon which a general psychological theory could be founded, and that these traditional views can in no way account for the gambling behaviour reported in this book.
High Altitude Leadership
Chris Warner,Don Schmincke
Author : Chris Warner,Don Schmincke
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2008-10-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470345030
High Altitude Leadership by Chris Warner,Don Schmincke Pdf
Leadership is often a risky, lonely role possessing nearly unbearable lows and fleeting highs. Despite this emotionally and intellectually draining roller coaster, a handful of leaders deliver stunning results, with great consistency. They push past current leadership trends in order to achieve the most extremely challenging goals. They don't fall prey to the platitudes or cliches we see so often see in leadership theory. Instead, they succeed by recognizing and surviving the dangers that challenge them as they take themselves and their teams to higher levels. These rare individuals are those that Chris Warner and Don Schmincke call High Altitude Leaders. In High Altitude Leadership they show how to become that kind of leader.The authors present a new approach to leadership development, based on ground-breaking scientific research, field-tested under the most brutal conditions on the most difficult summits, and successfully applied in the training of executives, management teams, and entrepreneurs throughout the world.