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Changes in Fire Weather Distributions by Lucy Anne Salazar Pdf
Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the northern Rocky Mountains were treated as probability distributions, then used in computer simulation to estimate distributions of rate-of-spread (ROS) and fireline intensity (FLI). Sensitivity of ROS and FLl to weather input changes was analyzed by varying the source and amount of weather data, and diurnally adjusting temperature and relative humidity. In eight representative cases, a minimum amount of data produced the lowest cumulative probabilities of ROS and FLl, and data from a higher elevation produced the highest values. For long-term planning, within the region studied, a small subset of weather data distributions was adequate for estimating probabilistic distributions of ROS and FLI. Joint probabilities of ROS and FLI differed substantially among test cases. Fire behavior values obtained with observed data were higher than those obtained with diurnally adjusted data. The simulation techniques used are appropriate for use in long-term fire management planning models.
Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System by B. D. Lawson Pdf
This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.
Mike Wotton,R. S. McAlpine,Kim Logan,Ontario. Ministry of Natural Resources. Applied Research and Development
Author : Mike Wotton,R. S. McAlpine,Kim Logan,Ontario. Ministry of Natural Resources. Applied Research and Development Publisher : Sault Ste Marie : Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development Page : 32 pages File Size : 46,7 Mb Release : 2005 Category : Climatic changes ISBN : MINN:31951D023630928
Climate Change and the Future Fire Environment in Ontario by Mike Wotton,R. S. McAlpine,Kim Logan,Ontario. Ministry of Natural Resources. Applied Research and Development Pdf
The increased fi re load is expected to increase the cost of fi re management in the province 16% by the year 2040 and 54% by the year 2090 over year 2000 costs, exclusive of infl ation or other factors. [...] In addition to increases in seasonal fi re severity indices, a number of these studies also predict increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme fi re danger in some areas of the country (e.g., Stocks et al. [...] This study uses lightning- and people-caused fi re occurrence models developed specifi cally for Ontario with GCM projections of future climate and Ontario's level of protection analysis software, LEOPARDS (see McAlpine and Hirsch 1999) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the fi re management organization both in terms of numbers of escaped fi res and with respect to changes in operationa [...] The sites of the GCM grid cell centres and OMNR weather stations used are shown in Figure 1. Fire Weather and Fire Danger To create the fi re climate of a future decade, the monthly anomalies were applied to the daily data from the OMNR fi re weather station archive from the years 1992-2001 (corresponding to the period over which lightning records were available). [...] The Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992) was used in conjunction with the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI) (calculated on the detection date of the fi re using the FWI System), and the fuel type associated with the fi re to estimate an initial rate of spread for each fi re.
U. S. Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,U. S. Government
Author : U. S. Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,U. S. Government Publisher : Unknown Page : 358 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 2018-01-14 Category : Electronic ISBN : 1976893461
Fire Weather (Agriculture Handbook 360) - Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Forest Fire Control Operations, Winds, Moisture, Temperature, Fronts, Thunderstorms, Climate Regions by U. S. Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,U. S. Government Pdf
Weather is never static. It is always dynamic. Its interpretation is an art. The environment is in control in wildland firefighting. Free-burning fires are literally nourished by weather elements, atmospheric components, and atmospheric motion. Outguessing Mother Nature in order to win control is an extremely difficult task. We need to soothe her with understanding. We have attempted to present information in such a way that your daily and seasonal awareness of fire weather can begin with reliable basic knowledge. We have kept the use of technical terms to a minimum, but where it was necessary for clear and accurate presentation, we have introduced and defined the proper terms. Growing awareness of fire weather, when combined with related experience on fires, can develop into increasingly intuitive, rapid, and accurate applications. Toward this end, we have preceded each chapter with a paragraph or two on important points to look for in relating weather factors to fire control planning and action. The illustrations are designed to help you "see" the weather from many different locations. The illustrations should help you to evaluate fire weather in all of its dimensions, and simultaneously to keep track of its continually changing character.CHAPTER 1 - BASIC PRINCIPLES - The primary causes of the actions, reactions, and interactions of the components of the atmosphere and the elements of weather need to be understood because the behavior of wildland fire depends upon them. CHAPTER 2 - TEMPERATURE - The continual changes in land, sea, and air temperatures from hot to cold during day and night and summer and winter affect fire-weather judgments and predictions. CHAPTER 3 - ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE - The amount of water vapor in the air-the degree of "wetness" and "dryness" as a condition of fire weather-must be considered in all evaluations of wildland fire potential and control. CHAPTER 4 - ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY - The distributions of temperature and moisture aloft, although difficult to perceive thousands of feet above the surface, can critically influence the behavior of a wildland fire. CHAPTER 5 - GENERAL CIRCULATION - Large-scale circulation of air and moisture in the atmosphere sets the regional patterns for both long-term trends and seasonal variations in fire weather. CHAPTER 6 - GENERAL WINDS - An understanding of the mechanics of wind flow as measured and expressed in terms of speed and vertical and horizontal directions, both regionally and locally, are of extreme importance to the wildland fire-control man. CHAPTER 7 - CONVECTIVE WINDS - Local surface conditions resulting in the heating and cooling of the surface air cause air motions which can account for "unusual" wind behavior on a wildland fire. CHAPTER 8 - AIR MASSES AND FRONTS - Both warm and cold air masses, usually coincident with high-pressure cells, migrate constantly over areas of thousands of square miles. When they are stationary, fire weather changes only gradually from day to, day, but when they move and overtake or encounter other air masses, weather elements do change-often -suddenly. CHAPTER 9 - CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION - Clouds, in both amounts and kinds, or their absence, are indicators of fire-weather conditions that must be evaluated daily. Some can locally forewarn fire-control men of high fire hazard.-Not all of them produce rain. CHAPTER 10 - THUNDERSTORMS - When a moist air mass becomes unstable, thunderstorms are likely. Their fire-starting potential and effect on fire behavior can be anticipated if the weather conditions, which produce them, are understood. CHAPTER 11 - WEATHER AND FUEL MOISTURE - The response of both living and dead forest and range fuels, the food on which wildland fire feeds, to atmospheric and precipitated moisture affect wildland fire prevention and control. CHAPTER 12 - FIRE CLIMATE REGIONS - An overall look and a summary of regional fire-weather characteristics.
Size Class Distribution and Spatial Proximity of Fires in a Simulated Boreal Forest Fire Regime in Relation to Ontario's Policy Directions for Emulating Natural Disturbance by Ajith Perera,Wenbin Cui Pdf
In the other three ecoregions, it underestimated fire size distribution under all simulation scenarios. The guide's direction for spatial proximity was not congruent with results from any simulated scenario in any ecoregion. However, the probability of spatial proximity was low in all but one ecoregion. In addition to the assessment of NDPE guide's direction, this study demonstrates that fire size distributions appear to be unique to ecoregions, and that these can vary further if the fire weather conditions change."--Abstract
FIRE WEATHER : A Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Forest Fire Control Operations - Agriculture Handbook 360 by U.S. Department of Agriculture Pdf
Weather is never static. It is always dynamic. Its interpretation is an art. The art of applying complex information about weather to the equally complex task of wildland fire control cannot be acquired easily especially not by the mere reading of a book. The environment is in control in wildland firefighting. Free-burning fires are literally nourished by weather elements, atmospheric components, and atmospheric motion. Outguessing Mother Nature in order to win control is an extremely difficult task. We need to soothe her with understanding. We have attempted to present information in such a way that your daily and seasonal awareness of fire weather can begin with reliable basic knowledge. We have kept the use of technical terms to a minimum, but where it was necessary for clear and accurate presentation, we have introduced and defined the proper terms. Growing awareness of fire weather, when combined with related experience on fires, can develop into increasingly intuitive, rapid, and accurate applications.
Evaluating Climate Change Impacts by Vyacheslav Lyubchich,Yulia Gel,K. Halimeda Kilbourne,Thomas James Miller,Nathaniel K. Newlands,Adam B. Smith Pdf
Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies. This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 187 pages File Size : 48,9 Mb Release : 2016-07-28 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309380973
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Pdf
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Functional Seed Ecology: From Single Traits to Plant Distribution Patterns, Community Assembly and Ecosystem Processes by Sergey Rosbakh,Shyam S. Phartyal,Si-Chong Chen,Peter Poschlod Pdf
Seed Dissemination in Small Clearcuttings in North-central California by Philip M. McDonald Pdf
In a 1964-1967 study on the Challenge Experimental Forest, seedfall was evaluated in 2-, 5-, and 10-acre circular clearcuttings. During the 4 years, 10 seed crops, ranging from light to bumper, were produced by ponderosa pine. white fir, Douglas-fir, and incense cedar. Seedfall ranged from 76 to 40,691 sound seed per acre (188 to 100,547/ha) for a single species in a given year. From 89 to 100 percent of each species' seed fell within an area 1 1/2 times the height of the average dominant tree. Overall, seed distribution was highly variable.
