China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential A Stocktaking And Sectoral Approach

Author : Min Zhu,Ms.Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513522494

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China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach by Min Zhu,Ms.Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng Pdf

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Author : Min Zhu,Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2017
Category : China
ISBN : OCLC:1129408170

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China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential by Min Zhu,Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng Pdf

"China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. The authors find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence."--Abstract.

Author : Min Zhu,Ms.Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513515359

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China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach by Min Zhu,Ms.Longmei Zhang,Daoju Peng Pdf

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Author : Chong-en Bai,Qiong Zhang
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2017-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351621755

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A Research on China’s Economic Growth Potential by Chong-en Bai,Qiong Zhang Pdf

After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.

Author : Loren Brandt,John Michael Litwack,Elitza Mileva,Luhang Wang,Yifan Zhang,Luan Zhao
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1195933172

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China's Productivity Slowdown and Future Growth Potential by Loren Brandt,John Michael Litwack,Elitza Mileva,Luhang Wang,Yifan Zhang,Luan Zhao Pdf

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2022-01-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400201356

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People’s Republic of China: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

Author : Michael Lloyd,Bob Savic
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2021-10-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781800611283

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Re-emergence Of China, The: The New Global Era by Michael Lloyd,Bob Savic Pdf

In eleven chapters this book addresses the issue of the re-emergence of China and a new global order on the world stage, with implications for the existing US hegemonic liberal international order. The Re-Emergence of China reviews the history of China's astounding economic growth and geopolitical development over the past 30 years. It explores the economic, technological, and global development of China during this period; explores the political philosophy and praxis from imperial neo-Confucian times to the present socialist regime; the cultural and social development of China and the role of the Chinese diaspora; and examines the prospects for a new international order with a major role for China.This book will fit comfortably into the required reading schedule for graduate class modules in Chinese and East Asian studies, political theory, economic development, and contemporary political history. Of particular interest will be the exploration of the role of the Chinese diaspora in modern China's development. The authors' focus on the contemporary conflict between the US and China will also be of wider interest to political commentators as well as academic researchers in Chinese studies.The Re-Emergence of China can provide a guiding narrative for academics, researchers, policymakers, industry leaders and many other relevant professionals on how global society can be reshaped in the wake of China's re-emergence in the new global era. By focusing on China's integration with the economic and political world order, in terms of both its advances and setbacks, in addition to the historical contexts, readers can navigate the book's succinct coverage and conclusions on the development of a China polity which has become increasingly connected to the world in some ways, yet more disconnected in others.Related Link(s)

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2023-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400233517

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People’s Republic of China by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513573779

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China's Rebalancing and Gender Inequality by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.

Author : Sten Söderman
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2023-01-17
Category : Sports & Recreation
ISBN : 9781803928265

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The Footballization of China by Sten Söderman Pdf

In this unique book, Sten Söderman explores the prospect of China reaching its goal of hosting the 2050 World Cup. Söderman takes into consideration China’s size, resources, traditions and political system to ask what needs to be done and how.

Author : Christian Leuprecht,Jamie Ferrill
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780228019893

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Dirty Money by Christian Leuprecht,Jamie Ferrill Pdf

Financial crime in Canada remains a mystery: omnipresent, but we know little about its operation. Transactions are cloaked with apparent legality, which makes tracking criminal activity through economic or financial statistics a complex undertaking. This distinctive volume aims to stem in-, out-, and through-flows of vast sums of dirty money by enhancing Canada’s capacity to detect, disrupt, deter, investigate, and prosecute domestic financial criminals and transnational organized criminal organizations. It brings together leading scholars and practitioners from the public and private sectors to identify and explore deficiencies in federal and provincial policy, regulation, legislation, politics, institutions, and enforcement, as well as the international financial crime regime. Together contributors pinpoint weaknesses that have turned the Canadian federation into a destination of choice for global financial crime, where its perpetrators can operate with impunity. Dirty Money reveals how globalization and technology have spun an extensive web of clandestine processes that disguises how financial criminals operate, the channels they use, and how they suborn banks and institutions. In the process, the extent of financial crime in Canada and its corrosive effects on communities, democratic institutions, and prosperity becomes apparent. Contributors: Sanaa Ahmed, John Cassara, Garry Clement, Arthur J. Cockfield, Caroline Dugas, Jamie Ferrill, Cameron Field, Michelle Gallant, Peter German, Rhianna Hamilton, Todd Hataley, Caitlyn Jenkins, Christian Leuprecht, David Maimon, Katarzyna (Kasia) Mcnaughton, Denis Meunier, Pierre-Luc Pomerleau, Stephen Schneider, Jeffrey Simser.

Author : Bülent Gökay
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2021-02-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780228004578

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Turkey in the Global Economy by Bülent Gökay Pdf

Since the late 1990s Turkey has emerged as a significant economic power. Never colonized and straddling the continents of Europe and Asia, it plays a strategically important role in an increasingly unstable region. Bülent Gökay examines Turkey's remarkable political and economic transformation within the context of broader regional and global changes. By situating the story of Turkey's economic growth within an analysis of the structural changes and shifts in the world economy since the end of the Cold War, the book provides new insights into the functioning of Turkey's political economy and the successes and failures of its ruling party's economic management.

Author : Maddison Angus
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 1998-09-25
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264163553

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Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run by Maddison Angus Pdf

The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.

Author : Kai Guo,Papa N'Diaye
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2009-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000111483263

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Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable? by Kai Guo,Papa N'Diaye Pdf

This paper assesses the sustainability of China's export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in productivity, lower profits, and higher implicit or explicit subsidies to industry. However, the evidence suggest that it will prove difficult to accommodate such price reductions within existing profit margins or through productivity gains. Moving up the value-added chain, shifting the composition of exports, diversifying the export base, and increasing domestic value added of exports could give room to further export expansion. However, experiences from Asian economies that had similar export-oriented growth suggest there are limits to the global market share a country can occupy. Rebalancing growth toward private consumption would provide a large impetus to output growth and reduce the need for gaining further market share.

Author : Chong-en Bai,Qiong Zhang
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 111 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2017-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351621748

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A Research on China’s Economic Growth Potential by Chong-en Bai,Qiong Zhang Pdf

After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.