Completing The Forecast

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 112 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Climatic changes
ISBN : 030966327X

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Completing the Forecast by Anonim Pdf

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 189 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 1999-05-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309173407

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Making Climate Forecasts Matter by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Pdf

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2012-01-25
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119961079

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Forecast Verification by Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson Pdf

Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author : Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781118447635

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Operational Weather Forecasting by Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling Pdf

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 526 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : UIUC:30112077232129

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Crop Production by Anonim Pdf

Author : Jae K. Shim
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2000-01-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1574442511

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Strategic Business Forecasting by Jae K. Shim Pdf

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference. The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages. The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Energy and Environment
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Political Science
ISBN : PSU:000065520581

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An Insecure Forecast for Continuity of Climate and Weather Data by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Pdf

Author : James Morrell
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0566084929

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How to Forecast by James Morrell Pdf

Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book provides a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. James Morrell, with 45 years of experience as a forecaster to draw on, goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those under the firm's control such as costs, prices, profits and product development. By understanding the issues surrounding these varied subjects any manager will be able to better analyse the data they are given and construct practical and useful forecasts from them. Forecasting is an art as well as a science - this book helps to unlock its secrets.

Author : Sleeter Group, Incorporated, The
Publisher : The Sleeter Group
Page : 765 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2005-10
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9781932487497

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Learning QuickBooks Step-by-Step - QuickBooks Complete - Version 2005 by Sleeter Group, Incorporated, The Pdf

Author : Helena Knapton,Jamila Gurjee
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 156 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-02
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781351696388

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Teaching Business, Economics and Enterprise 14-19 by Helena Knapton,Jamila Gurjee Pdf

This book provides core knowledge and guidance for successful teaching in Business, Economics and Enterprise Education, and is based on the most up-to-date requirements. Written by experts with expertise in delivering business education in teacher training, further education, and secondary schools, it explores the nature of each subject in relation to the curriculum and offers subject-specific pedagogy to help develop teaching skills and confidence within the classroom. Including case studies and reflective questions in every chapter, the book covers the key topics across the subjects such as: Financial literacy Planning for the delivery of academic and vocational subjects The value of different qualifications and business and industry links Strategies for successful differentiation Assessment and pupil progression Teaching Business, Economics and Enterprise 14-19 is a vital resource for training or newly qualified teachers looking to deliver excellent teaching that will inspire their students and lead to successful learning.

Author : John Ross
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2014-04-15
Category : History
ISBN : 9781493008483

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Forecast for D-day by John Ross Pdf

The weather story of D-Day in which the invasion's success hinged on the correct gauge of the weather for the crossing of the British Channel; the story of the man Eisenhower trusted with choosing the best day to invade, despite contrary opionions from more senior weather experts.

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2018-05-17
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128122488

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner Pdf

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Author : Jeffery C. Rogers,Bernard DeWitt,Dennis Dixon
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 1975
Category : Ice
ISBN : UIUC:30112075637899

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Operational Ice Forecast for the Little Rapids Cut by Jeffery C. Rogers,Bernard DeWitt,Dennis Dixon Pdf