Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 189 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 1999-05-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309173407

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Making Climate Forecasts Matter by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Pdf

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 190 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1999-06-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309064750

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Making Climate Forecasts Matter by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Pdf

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2010-09-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309161343

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Pdf

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Author : Alberto Troccoli,Mike Harrison,David L.T. Anderson,Simon J. Mason
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 467 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2008-01-29
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781402069925

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Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by Alberto Troccoli,Mike Harrison,David L.T. Anderson,Simon J. Mason Pdf

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Author : Alberto Troccoli,Laurent Dubus,Sue Ellen Haupt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 528 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2014-01-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781461492214

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Weather Matters for Energy by Alberto Troccoli,Laurent Dubus,Sue Ellen Haupt Pdf

It is the purpose of this book to provide the meteorological knowledge and tools to improve the risk management of energy industry decisions, ranging from the long term finance and engineering planning assessments to the short term operational measures for scheduling and maintenance. Most of the chapters in this book are based on presentations given at the inaugural International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM), held in the Gold Coast, Australia, 8-11 November 2011. The main aim of the conference was to strengthen the link between Energy and Meteorology, so as to make meteorological information more relevant to the planning and operations of the energy sector. The ultimate goal would be to make the best use of weather and climate data in order to achieve a more efficient use of energy sources. This book seeks to realise the same objective.

Author : National Research Council,Policy and Global Affairs,Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability,James Buizer,David W. Cash
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2005-02-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309092722

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Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting by National Research Council,Policy and Global Affairs,Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability,James Buizer,David W. Cash Pdf

The National Academies' Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability hosted a workshop "Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting" in 2004 to discover and distill general lessons about the design of effective systems for linking knowledge with action from the last decade's experience with the production and application of seasonal to interannual climate forecasts. Workshop participants described lessons they had learned based on their experiences developing, applying, and using decision support systems in the United States, Columbia, Brazil, and Australia. Some of the key lessons discussed, as characterized by David Cash and James Buizer, were that effective knowledge-action systems: define and frame the problem to be addressed via collaboration between knowledge users and knowledge producers; tend to be end-to-end systems that link user needs to basic scientific findings and observations; are often anchored in "boundary organizations" that act as intermediaries between nodes in the system - most notably between scientists and decision makers; feature flexible processes and institutions to be responsive to what is learned; use funding strategies tailored to the dual public/private character of such systems; and require people who can work across disciplines, issue areas, and the knowledgeâ€"action interface.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2001-10-31
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309183307

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A Climate Services Vision by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Pdf

A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future describes the types of products that should be provided through a climate service; outlines the roles of the public, private, and academic sectors in a climate service; describe fundamental principles that should be followed in the provision of climate services; and describes potential audiences and providers of climate services.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Computer Science and Telecommunications Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data,Committee on Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2003-06-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309087469

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Fair Weather by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Computer Science and Telecommunications Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data,Committee on Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services Pdf

Decades of evolving U.S. policy have led to three sectors providing weather servicesâ€"NOAA (primarily the National Weather Service [NWS]), academic institutions, and private companies. This three-sector system has produced a scope and diversity of weather services in the United States second to none. However, rapid scientific and technological change is changing the capabilities of the sectors and creating occasional friction. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services examines the roles of the three sectors in providing weather and climate services, the barriers to interaction among the sectors, and the impact of scientific and technological advances on the weather enterprise. Readers from all three sectors will be interested in the analysis and recommendations provided in Fair Weather.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : Eric P. Chassignet,Jacques Verron
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 577 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2006-07-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781402040283

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Ocean Weather Forecasting by Eric P. Chassignet,Jacques Verron Pdf

This volume covers a wide range of topics and summarizes our present knowledge in ocean modeling, ocean observing systems, and data assimilation. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) provides a framework for these efforts: a global system of observations, communications, modeling, and assimilation that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans, engendering wide utility and availability for maximum benefit to the community.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2019-06-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309492430

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Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board Pdf

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

Author : Mannava VK Sivakumar,James Hansen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 319 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2007-05-26
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783540446507

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Climate Prediction and Agriculture by Mannava VK Sivakumar,James Hansen Pdf

Based on an International Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, this book reviews the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture. It also identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhance operational applications of climate predictions in agriculture, especially in developing countries.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Climatology
ISBN : UOM:39015049113429

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Proceedings of the Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop by Anonim Pdf

Author : Mary E. Pettenger
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2016-02-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781317015857

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The Social Construction of Climate Change by Mary E. Pettenger Pdf

Individuals, international organizations and states are calling for the world to confront climate change. Efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol have produced intractable disputes and are deemed inadequate. This volume adopts two constructivist perspectives - norm-centred and discourse - to explore the social construction of climate change from a broad, theoretical level to particular cases. The contributors contend that climate change must be understood from the context of social settings, and that we ignore at our peril how power and knowledge structures are generated. They offer a greater understanding of why current efforts to mitigate climate change have failed and provide academics and policy makers with a new understanding of this important topic.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 187 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2016-07-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309380973

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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Pdf

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.