Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics

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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Book PDF

Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691215075

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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin Pdf

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Forbidden Fruit

Richard Ned Lebow
Forbidden Fruit Book PDF

Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 347 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2010-02-07
Category : History
ISBN : 9780691132907

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Forbidden Fruit by Richard Ned Lebow Pdf

Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.

Counterfactual Thinking - Counterfactual Writing

Dorothee Birke,Michael Butter,Tilmann Köppe
Counterfactual Thinking Counterfactual Writing Book PDF

Author : Dorothee Birke,Michael Butter,Tilmann Köppe
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter
Page : 262 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2011-11-30
Category : Literary Criticism
ISBN : 9783110268669

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Counterfactual Thinking - Counterfactual Writing by Dorothee Birke,Michael Butter,Tilmann Köppe Pdf

Counterfactuality is currently a hotly debated topic. While for some disciplines such as linguistics, cognitive science, or psychology counterfactual scenarios have been an important object of study for quite a while, counterfactual thinking has in recent years emerged as a method of study for other disciplines, most notably the social sciences. This volume provides an overview of the current definitions and uses of the concept of counterfactuality in philosophy, historiography, political sciences, psychology, linguistics, physics, and literary studies. The individual contributions not only engage the controversies that the deployment of counterfactual thinking as a method still generates, they also highlight the concept’s potential to promote interdisciplinary exchange without neglecting the limitations and pitfalls of such a project. Moreover, the essays from literary studies, which make up about half of the volume, provide both a historical and a systematic perspective on the manifold ways in which counterfactual scenarios can be incorporated into and deployed in literary texts.

Unmaking the West

Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker
Unmaking the West Book PDF

Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 0472031430

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Unmaking the West by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker Pdf

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Bridges and Boundaries

Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman
Bridges and Boundaries Book PDF

Author : Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 452 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2001-04-13
Category : History
ISBN : 0262550393

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Bridges and Boundaries by Colin Elman,Miriam Fendius Elman Pdf

Bridges and Boundaries offers a conversation between what might loosely be described as traditionalist diplomatic and military historians, and political scientists who employ qualitative case study methods to examine international relations. The book opens with a series of chapters discussing differences, commonalities, and opportunities for cross-fertilization between the two disciplines.To help focus the dialogue on real events and research, the volume then revisits three empirical topics that have been studied at length by members of both disciplines: British hegemony in the nineteenth century; diplomacy in the interwar period and the causes of World War II; and the origins and course of the Cold War. For each of these subjects, a political scientist, a historian, and a commentator reflect on how disciplinary "guild rules" have shaped the study of international events. The book closes with incisive overviews by Robert Jervis and Paul W. Schroeder. Bridges and Boundaries explores how historians and political scientists can learn from one another and illustrates the possibilities that arise when open-minded scholars from different disciplines sit down to talk.

Thought Experiments in Methodological and Historical Contexts

Anonim
Thought Experiments in Methodological and Historical Contexts Book PDF

Author : Anonim
Publisher : BRILL
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2011-06-09
Category : History
ISBN : 9789004201774

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Thought Experiments in Methodological and Historical Contexts by Anonim Pdf

By analysing thought experiments from various periods in the history of philosophy and science, the essays in this volume seek to clarify how thought experiments work, what their limits are, and what their conceptualisation could be.

Power Concentration in World Politics

William R. Thompson
Power Concentration in World Politics Book PDF

Author : William R. Thompson
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2020-06-10
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783030474225

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Power Concentration in World Politics by William R. Thompson Pdf

This book discusses the role of space, time and cyclical behavior in world politics. More specifically, the political-economic role of lead economies – the world’s most innovative economies for finite periods of time – in world politics. These represent unusual concentrations of new technologies, energy sources, and military capabilities of global reach that play disproportional roles in the conduct of international affairs and the provision of limited governance at the most macro level. They also possess close links to economic growth and intense conflict. The book describes the economic, military and political processes behind the systemic leadership of a state at the international level. It also highlights the economic preconditions of systemic leadership, such as economic monopoly of new technologies and energy, which underlie the system leader’s material advantage over others. Analyzing lead economies and the evolution of power over a number of centuries, the author demonstrates how disruptions wrought by the emergence of new technologies and energy sources are partly responsible for global conflicts. This book appeals to international relations scholars as well as anyone interested in the political economy of systemic leadership, growth, and conflict in world politics.

The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

David R. Mandel,Denis J. Hilton,Patrizia Catellani
The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking Book PDF

Author : David R. Mandel,Denis J. Hilton,Patrizia Catellani
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2007-05-07
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781134353194

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The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking by David R. Mandel,Denis J. Hilton,Patrizia Catellani Pdf

This book provides a critical overview of significant developments in research and theory on counterfactual thinking that have emerged in recent years and spotlights exciting new directions for future research in this area. Key issues considered include the relations between counterfactual and casual reasoning, the functional bases of counterfactual thinking, the role of counterfactual thinking in the experience of emotion and the importance of counterfactual thinking in the context of crime and justice.

Terms of Inquiry

James W. Davis
Terms of Inquiry Book PDF

Author : James W. Davis
Publisher : JHU Press
Page : 300 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2005-06-07
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0801880858

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Terms of Inquiry by James W. Davis Pdf

Introduction -- Of concepts and conceptualization -- Scientific concepts and the study of politics -- If-- maybe -- Social behavior and the indeterminacy of norms -- Methods for the production of practical knowledge.

Forbidden Fruit

Richard Ned Lebow
Forbidden Fruit Book PDF

Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2010-01-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400835126

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Forbidden Fruit by Richard Ned Lebow Pdf

Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.

Expert Political Judgment

Philip E. Tetlock
Expert Political Judgment Book PDF

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818

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Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Pdf

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier,Henry E. Brady,David Collier
The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology Book PDF

Author : Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier,Henry E. Brady,David Collier
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2008-08-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780191558214

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The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology by Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier,Henry E. Brady,David Collier Pdf

Political methodology has changed dramatically over the past thirty years, and many new methods and techniques have been developed. Both the Political Methodology Society and the Qualitative/Multi-Methods Section of the American Political Science Association have engaged in ongoing research and training programs that have advanced quantitative and qualitative methodology. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology presents and synthesizes these developments. The Handbook provides comprehensive overviews of diverse methodological approaches, with an emphasis on three major themes. First, specific methodological tools should be at the service of improved conceptualization, comprehension of meaning, measurement, and data collection. They should increase analysts' leverage in reasoning about causal relationships and evaluating them empirically by contributing to powerful research designs. Second, the authors explore the many different ways of addressing these tasks: through case-studies and large-n designs, with both quantitative and qualitative data, and via techniques ranging from statistical modelling to process tracing. Finally, techniques can cut across traditional methodological boundaries and can be useful for many different kinds of researchers. Many of the authors thus explore how their methods can inform, and be used by, scholars engaged in diverse branches of methodology.

The Quest for Knowledge in International Relations

Richard Ned Lebow
The Quest for Knowledge in International Relations Book PDF

Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-04-14
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781009098922

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The Quest for Knowledge in International Relations by Richard Ned Lebow Pdf

What kinds of knowledge do international relations theories seek? How do they search for it and claim to have found it? Lebow uses his answers to these questions to say something important about the theory project in IR, and in the social sciences more generally.

The AI Commander

James Johnson
The AI Commander Book PDF

Author : James Johnson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 241 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-11
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780198892182

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The AI Commander by James Johnson Pdf

This book addresses the largely neglected question of how the fusion of machines into the war machine will affect the human condition of warfare. It emphasizes the "mind" and the mechanisms of thought (intelligence, consciousness, emotion, memory, experience, etc.) to consider the effects of AI and autonomy on the human condition of war.

What Might Have Been

Neal J. Roese,James M. Olson
What Might Have Been Book PDF

Author : Neal J. Roese,James M. Olson
Publisher : Psychology Press
Page : 418 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-14
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781317780465

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What Might Have Been by Neal J. Roese,James M. Olson Pdf

Within a few short years, research on counterfactual thinking has mushroomed, establishing itself as one of the signature domains within social psychology. Counterfactuals are thoughts of what might have been, of possible past outcomes that could have taken place. Counterfactuals and their implications for perceptions of time and causality have long fascinated philosophers, but only recently have social psychologists made them the focus of empirical inquiry. Following the publication of Kahneman and Tversky's seminal 1982 paper, a burgeoning literature has implicated counterfactual thinking in such diverse judgments as causation, blame, prediction, and suspicion; in such emotional experiences as regret, elation, disappointment and sympathy; and also in achievement, coping, and intergroup bias. But how do such thoughts come about? What are the mechanisms underlying their operation? How do their consequences benefit, or harm, the individual? When is their generation spontaneous and when is it strategic? This volume explores these and other numerous issues by assembling contributions from the most active researchers in this rapidly expanding subfield of social psychology. Each chapter provides an in-depth exploration of a particular conceptual facet of counterfactual thinking, reviewing previous work, describing ongoing, cutting-edge research, and offering novel theoretical analysis and synthesis. As the first edited volume to bring together the many threads of research and theory on counterfactual thinking, this book promises to be a source of insight and inspiration for years to come.