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Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 0472031430
9788472457904.txt
Author : Jeremy Salt
Publisher : Univ of California Press
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : History
ISBN : 9780520261709
Politics & government.
Author : Richard J. Evans
Publisher : Brandeis University Press
Page : 172 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2014-02-04
Category : History
ISBN : 9781611685381
Ê A bullet misses its target in Sarajevo, a would-be Austrian painter gets into the Viennese academy, Lord Halifax becomes British prime minister in 1940 instead of Churchill: seemingly minor twists of fate on which world-shaking events might have hinged. Alternative history has long been the stuff of parlor games, war-gaming, and science fiction, but over the past few decades it has become a popular stomping ground for serious historians. The historian Richard J. Evans now turns a critical, slightly jaundiced eye on a subject typically the purview of armchair historians. The bookÕs main concern is examining the intellectual fallout from historical counterfactuals, which the author defines as Òalternative versions of the past in which one alteration in the timeline leads to a different outcome from the one we know actually occurred.Ó What if Britain had stood at the sidelines during the First World War? What if the Wehrmacht had taken Moscow? The author offers an engaging and insightful introduction to the genre, while discussing the reasons for its revival in popularity, the role of historical determinism, and the often hidden agendas of the counterfactual historian. Most important, Evans takes counterfactual history seriously, looking at the insights, pitfalls, and intellectual implications of changing one thread in the weave of history. A wonderful critical introduction to an often-overlooked genre for scholars and casual readers of history alike.
Author : James C. Murphy
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2022-07
Category : City planning
ISBN : 0522878369
For some years, Melbourne's aborted East-West Link created intense picketing and protests, multiple court challenges, breathless media coverage and bitter politicking. The Link brought the downfall of the single-term Baillieu-Napthine Liberal government; its cancellation cost the state half a billion dollars; and it lives on in infamy, a byword in the Australian lexicon for political brinkmanship, waste and politicisation of infrastructure. In The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link, James C Murphy explores the saga from competing vantage points, detailing the layers of politics and intrigue that saturate infrastructure policymaking in Australia.
Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : St. Martin's Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2014-01-07
Category : History
ISBN : 9781137413505
The "Great War" claimed nearly 40 million lives and set the stage for World War II, the Holocaust, and the Cold War. One hundred years later, historians are beginning to recognize how unnecessary it was. In Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!, acclaimed political psychologist Richard Ned Lebow examines the chain of events that led to war and what could reasonably have been done differently to avoid it. In this highly original and intellectually challenging book, he constructs plausible worlds, some better, some worse, that might have developed. He illustrates them with "what-if" biographies of politicians, scientists, religious leaders, artists, painters, and writers, sports figures, and celebrities, including scenarios where: there is no Israel; neither John Kennedy nor Barack Obama become president; Curt Flood, not Jackie Robinson, integrates baseball; Satchmo and many Black jazz musicians leave for Europe, where jazz blends with klezmer; nuclear research is internationalized and all major countries sign a treaty outlawing the development of atomic weapons; Britain and Germany are entrapped in a Cold War that threatens to go nuclear; and much more.
Author : Stefan Ouma
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 252 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2015-05-26
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781118632611
Assembling Export Markets explores the new ‘frontier regions’ of the global fresh produce market that has emerged in Ghana over the past decade. Represents a major and empirically rich contribution to the emerging field of the social studies of economization and marketization Offers one of the first ethnographic accounts on the making of global commodity chains ‘from below’ Denaturalizes global markets by unpacking their local engagement, materially entangled construction, need for maintenance, and fragile character Offers a trans-disciplinary engagement with the construction and extension of market relations in two frontier regions of global capitalism Critically examines the opportunities and risks for firms and farms in Ghana entering global fresh produce markets
Author : William R. Thompson
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2020-06-10
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783030474225
This book discusses the role of space, time and cyclical behavior in world politics. More specifically, the political-economic role of lead economies – the world’s most innovative economies for finite periods of time – in world politics. These represent unusual concentrations of new technologies, energy sources, and military capabilities of global reach that play disproportional roles in the conduct of international affairs and the provision of limited governance at the most macro level. They also possess close links to economic growth and intense conflict. The book describes the economic, military and political processes behind the systemic leadership of a state at the international level. It also highlights the economic preconditions of systemic leadership, such as economic monopoly of new technologies and energy, which underlie the system leader’s material advantage over others. Analyzing lead economies and the evolution of power over a number of centuries, the author demonstrates how disruptions wrought by the emergence of new technologies and energy sources are partly responsible for global conflicts. This book appeals to international relations scholars as well as anyone interested in the political economy of systemic leadership, growth, and conflict in world politics.
Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2010-01-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400835126
Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
Author : Gonda Van Steen
Publisher : Springer
Page : 262 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2010-04-26
Category : History
ISBN : 9780230106505
Liberating Hellenism from the Ottoman Empire explores two key historical episodes that have generally escaped the notice of modern Greece, the Near East, and their observers alike. In the midst of the highly charged context of West-East confrontation and with fundamental cultural and political issues at stake, these episodes prove to be exciting and important platforms from which to reexamine the age-old conflict. This book reaches beyond the standard sources to dig into the archives for important events that have fallen through the cracks of the study of emerging modern Greece and the Ottoman Empire. These events, in which French travel writing, literary fiction, antiquarianism, and nineteenth-century western and eastern geopolitics merge, invite us to redraw the outlines of mutually dependent Hellenism and Orientalism.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : Cole Roberts
Publisher : WestBow Press
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2015-11-24
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781512720587
What if Christianity is simple? When Jesus gave his first public address, he said, “I have come to fulfill the law and the prophets and to set the captives free.” When a contract is fulfilled, it is completed and is no longer in effect. Religion is a form of bondage that enslaves its adherents to a set of rules that constitute sin. It portrays the image of a God who acts as a judge. In one hand he has a legal pad and pen and in the other a club. When sufficient sins have been committed, the club is used on the sinner. Jesus died on the cross to fulfill the need for justice and came to earth to show that God is not the ogre with a club but a loving father with outstretched arms wanting to hug his children He sent to us the Holy Spirit so we might have the heart and mind of Christ and be empowered to live a life free from the bondage of sin and religion. This book shows the reader how to do that and points out the stumbling blocks that may interfere. It enables the reader to see the simplicity of Christianity and understand why it should surpass religion in our lives.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691215075
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Author : Richard Ned Lebow,Nathan Funk
Publisher : Springer
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2016-09-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783319341507
This is the first of four volumes to be published as part of this book series, on the life and work of Richard Ned Lebow. In a career spanning six decades, Richard Ned Lebow has made important contributions to the study of international relations, political and intellectual history, motivational and social psychology, philosophy of science, and classics. He has authored, coauthored or edited 30 books and almost 250 peer-reviewed articles. These four volumes are excerpts from this corpus. The first volume includes an intellectual autobiography, bibliography, and assessments of Lebow's contributions to diverse fields by respected authorities. It shows how a scholar's agenda evolves in response to world events and his efforts to grapple with them theoretically and substantively. It elaborates pathways for addressing these events and their consequences in an interdisciplinary manner, and offers new concepts and methods for doing so. Richard Lebow's research bridges international relations, psychology, history, classics, political theory and philosophy of science. He is author, coauthor, or editor of 34 books and almost 250 peer reviewed articles. Contributors to the book are: Simon Reich – Mervyn Frost - Janice Gross Stein - Stefano Guzzini – Markus Kornprobst - Harald Müller - Christian Wendt - Robert English.
Author : James Mahoney
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 416 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691217055
"Mahoney's starting point is the problem of essentialism in social science. Essentialism--the belief that the members of a category possess hidden properties ("essences") that make them members of the category and that endow them with a certain nature--is appropriate for scientific categories ("atoms", for instance) but not for human ones ("revolutions," for instance). Despite this, much social science research takes place from within an essentialist orientation; those who reject this assumption goes so far in the other direction as to reject the idea of an external reality, independent of human beings, altogether. Mahoney proposes an alternative approach that aspires to bridge this enduring rift in the social sciences between those who take a scientific approach and assume that social science categories correspond to external reality (and thus believe that the methods used in the natural sciences are generally appropriate for the social sciences) and those who take a constructivist approach and believe that because the categories used to understand the social world are humanly-constructed, they cannot possibly follow the science of the natural world. As the name suggests, scientific constructivism brings in aspects of both views and attempts to unite them. Drawing from cognitive science, it focuses on using the rational parts of our brain machinery to overcome the limitations and deeply seated biases (such as essentialism) of our evolved minds. Specifically, Mahoney puts forth a "set-theoretic analysis" that focuses on "sets" of categories as they exist in the mind that are also subject to the mathematical logic of set-theory. He spends the first four chapters of the book establishing the foundations and methods for set-theoretic analysis, the next four chapters looking and how this analysis fits with the existing tools of social science, and the final four chapters focusing on how this approach can be used to study and understand cases"--
Author : Patrick Gray
Publisher : Baker Academic
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2016-04-19
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781493403332
As one of the most significant figures in the history of Western civilization, the apostle Paul has influenced and inspired countless individuals and institutions. But for some, he holds a controversial place in Christianity. This engaging book explores why many people have been wary of Paul and what their criticisms reveal about the church and the broader culture. Patrick Gray brings intellectual and cultural history into conversation with study of the New Testament, providing a balanced account and assessment of widespread antipathy to Paul and exploring what the controversy tells us about ourselves.