Covid 19 And The Informality Driven Recovery The Case Of Colombia S Labor Market

Author : Jorge Alvarez,Carlo Pizzinelli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2021-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513597805

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COVID-19 and the Informality-driven Recovery: The Case of Colombia's Labor Market by Jorge Alvarez,Carlo Pizzinelli Pdf

This paper documents the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns on the Colombian labor market using household micro-data. About a quarter of employment was temporarily disrupted at the height of the first pandemic-induced lockdown in 2020. Women, the young, and the less educated were the most affected groups. Since then, a remarkable recovery, led by a rebound in informal employment, has taken place. By adjusting both employment levels and hours faster, the informal sector acted as an important margin of adjustment, particularly in those industries most affected by the first lockdown. The informal sector also appears to have played a role in decreasing the sensitivity of aggregate employment to more recent lockdowns in 2021, as the economy has learned to cope with pandemic restrictions, although the possibility of higher informality rates becoming embedded remains an substantial downside risk for long-term productivity.

Author : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2021-10-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513593838

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Western Hemisphere: A Long and Winding Road to Recovery by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Pdf

An economic recovery is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but the pandemic still casts shadows on much of the region. The recovery was robust in the first quarter of 2021 but lost momentum in some countries in the second quarter, reflecting the rebound in COVID-19 cases. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021, followed by a more moderate growth of 3 percent in 2022, but would not catch up with pre-pandemic trends in the medium term as persistent weakness in labor markets raises risks of scarring. Broadly favorable external conditions, high commodity prices, and pent-up demand support short-term growth, while monetary and fiscal policy reversals work in the other direction. Risks to the outlook are tilted downward. Main downside risks are the emergence of more transmissible and deadlier COVID-19 variants, tightening of global financial conditions, sovereign debt rollover risks, and social unrest as a year with heavy election schedule looms. Fiscal policy should allocate sufficient resources for health spending, including vaccination, and continue to support households and firms in a more targeted fashion while the pandemic persists, backed by credible assurances of medium-term debt sustainability to maintain access to finance. Monetary policy has started to address inflationary pressures but should continue to support economic activity insofar as the dynamics of inflation expectations permit. If rising inflation threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations, central banks should tighten monetary policy to signal a commitment to inflation targets and avoid persistent increases in inflation. Preemptive and decisive action should be accompanied with clear and transparent communication. Financial policy should shift from blanket support to targeted support of viable firms, to ensure that necessary labor and capital reallocations are not hindered. Supply-side policies should foster inclusive growth, including through progressive and growth-friendly tax reforms and measures to intensify climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Author : Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 397 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2022-02-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464817540

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The Long Shadow of Informality by Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu Pdf

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513571645

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The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil by International Monetary Fund Pdf

We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-10
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264700611

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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1 by OECD Pdf

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

Author : INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE.
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-02
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9220319586

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World Employment and Social Outlook by INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE. Pdf

This year's World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends examines global and regional trends in employment, unemployment, labour force participation and productivity, as well as dimensions of job quality such as employment status, informal employment and working poverty. It also provides extensive analysis of the crisis's varied impact on enterprises and workers.The report forecasts that employment recovery, though strong, will be insufficient to close the gaps. Workers whose labour market position was disadvantageous prior to the crisis - women, young people, migrants, informal workers and workers in lower-skilled occupations - suffered disproportionately. The report proposes a human-centred recovery strategy to avoid scarring of global labour markets for the years to come.

Author : James R. Tybout
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Developing countries
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries by James R. Tybout Pdf

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2020-07-07
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264353206

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OECD Employment Outlook 2020 Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis by OECD Pdf

The 2020 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focuses on worker security and the COVID-19 crisis.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : UNESCO
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2022-12-31
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789231005374

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UNESCO Creative Cities' Response to COVID-19 by UNESCO Pdf

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel,Christopher A. Pissarides
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105124182028

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NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008 by Jeffrey A. Frankel,Christopher A. Pissarides Pdf

Leading American and European economists discuss monetary and fiscal policy from an international macroeconomic perspective in a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual: cutting-edge research on macroeconomic issues and topical questions concerning the eastward expansion of the European Monetary Union.

Author : International Labour Office
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2022-01-17
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 922035697X

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World Employment and Social Outlook by International Labour Office Pdf

The report examines the impacts of the crisis on global and regional trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation, as well as on job quality, informal employment and working poverty. It also offers an extensive analysis of trends in temporary employment both before and during the COVID-19 crisis.This year's report provides a comprehensive assessment of how the labour market recovery has unfolded across the world in response to different country measures to tackle the pandemic. It analyses global patterns, regional differences and outcomes across economic sectors and groups of workers. The report also presents projections for the expected labour market recovery

Author : Samuel Pienknagura,Christopher Evans
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2021-09-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513596112

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Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options by Samuel Pienknagura,Christopher Evans Pdf

Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.

Author : Ann Harrison
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 675 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226318004

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Globalization and Poverty by Ann Harrison Pdf

Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.