Currencies And Crises

Author : Paul Krugman
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 1995-02-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262611090

Get Book

Currencies and Crises by Paul Krugman Pdf

This new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." Paul Krugman's first collection of essays, Rethinking International Trade, mounted a spirited assault on established trade theory and proposed an alternative approach to account for increasing returns and imperfect competition. Less theoretical and more embedded in real-world experience, this new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." The eleven essays cover such key areas as the role of exchange rates in balance-of-payments adjustment policy, the role of speculation in the functioning of exchange rate regimes, Third World debt, and the construction of an international monetary system. They are unified by the same basic methodology and style the construction of a small theoretical model in order to simplify or clarify a puzzling or difficult world monetary problem.

Author : Paul Krugman
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 367 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2007-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226454641

Get Book

Currency Crises by Paul Krugman Pdf

There is no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most would agree that they all involve one key element: investors fleeing a currency en masse out of fear that it might be devalued, in turn fueling the very devaluation they anticipated. Although such crises—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the speculations on European currencies in the early 1990s, and the ensuing Mexican, South American, and Asian crises—have played a central role in world affairs and continue to occur at an alarming rate, many questions about their causes and effects remain to be answered. In this wide-ranging volume, some of the best minds in economics focus on the historical and theoretical aspects of currency crises to investigate three fundamental issues: What drives currency crises? How should government behavior be modeled? And what are the actual consequences to the real economy? Reflecting the latest thinking on the subject, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom.

Author : Michael P. Dooley,Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 456 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226155425

Get Book

Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by Michael P. Dooley,Jeffrey A. Frankel Pdf

The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.

Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451855166

Get Book

Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion Pdf

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Author : John T. Harvey
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2009-01-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135969097

Get Book

Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises by John T. Harvey Pdf

Breaking from conventional wisdom, this book provides an explanation of exchange rates based on the premise that it is financial capital flows and not international trade that represents the driving force behind currency movements. John T. Harvey combines analyses rooted in the scholarly traditions of John Maynard Keynes and Thorstein Veblen with that of modern psychology to produce a set of new theories to explain international monetary economics, including not only exchange rates but also world financial crises. In the book, the traditional approach is reviewed and critiqued and the alternative is then built by studying the psychology of the market and balance of payments questions. The central model has at its core Keynes’ analysis of the macroeconomy and it assumes neither full employment nor balanced trade over the short or long run. Market participants’ mental model, which they use to forecast future exchange rate movements, is specified and integrated into the explanation. A separate but related discussion of currency crises shows that three distinct tension points emerge in booming economies, any one of which can break and signal the collapse. Each of the models is compared to post-Bretton Woods history and the reader is shown exactly how various shifts and adjustments on the graphs can explain the dollar’s ups and downs and the Mexican (1994) and Asian (1987) crises.

Author : Paul R. Masson
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789814350150

Get Book

Currencies, Crises, Fiscal Policy, and Coordination by Paul R. Masson Pdf

This volume provides an integrated compilation of selected major articles published by the author in several fields of international finance. These include contributions to the understanding of currency crises and financial contagion, the evolution of exchange rate regimes, the interaction between national fiscal policies and regional monetary unions, and the effect of uncertainty on the gains from international economic policy coordination. The author spent most of his career doing research at established institutions (the Bank of Canada, OECD, and IMF), and these articles emerged from the need to understand the major economic policy issues of the day. In the book's introduction, the author discusses the motivation for these contributions and the unifying themes that emerged, while a concluding chapter provides his personal reflections and suggestions about promising avenues for further research.

Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1997-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451955866

Get Book

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by Graciela Laura Kaminsky Pdf

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Author : Paul R. Krugman
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:60232231

Get Book

Currencies and Crises by Paul R. Krugman Pdf

Author : James Rickards
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 330 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2011-11-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781101558898

Get Book

Currency Wars by James Rickards Pdf

In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon. Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008. Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict. As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself. Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas. While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

Author : R.J. van der Spek,Bas van Leeuwen
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 335 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351810500

Get Book

Money, Currency and Crisis by R.J. van der Spek,Bas van Leeuwen Pdf

Money is a core feature in all discussions of economic crisis, as is clear from the debates about the responses of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States to the 2008 economic crisis. This volume explores the role of money in economic performance, and focuses on how monetary systems have affected economic crises for the last 4,000 years. Recent events have confirmed that money is only a useful tool in economic exchange if it is trusted, and this is a concept that this text explores in depth. The international panel of experts assembled here offers a long-range perspective, from ancient Assyria to modern societies in Europe, China and the US. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of economic history, and to anyone who seeks to understand the economic crises of recent decades, and place them in a wider historical context.

Author : Sebastian Edwards,Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 783 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2009-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226185057

Get Book

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by Sebastian Edwards,Jeffrey A. Frankel Pdf

Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.

Author : Olivier Jeanne
Publisher : Princeton University International Finance Section, Department of Econmics
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSC:32106012492085

Get Book

Currency Crises by Olivier Jeanne Pdf

Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 1998-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451857207

Get Book

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Andrew Berg Pdf

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.

Author : Thomas Meyer
Publisher : diplom.de
Page : 87 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2000-06-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783832424305

Get Book

The 90s' Currency Crises by Thomas Meyer Pdf

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: When on June 2nd 1997 Thailand devalued its currency, the stage was set was the most severe and virulent currency crisis of that decade. The sudden reversal of capital flows depleted economic wealth and social cohesion in many East Asian countries, hitherto perveived to belong to the Asian Miracle. Shockwaves of the crisis were felt in most emerging markets, even those outside the region, and reached mature markets when, for instance, the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed. In face of these enormous costs, this paper analyses the possibilities and boundaries of attempts to either reduce the likeliness of respective financial shocks or, when unavoidable, lower the costs of managing these crises. On the ground of the state-of-the-art models of currency crises it is examined which domestic or international factors contributed most to the observed outcome. The guiding question is if either moral hazard considerations, in the form of governmental guarantees and alike, or approaches of multiple equilibria are more suited to serve as an explanation. Moreover, this paper illuminates the significance of the original sin hypothesis which states that emerging markets are constrained when trying to borrow abroad in domestic currency or, even when trying at home, to borrow long-term. Although it is acknowledged that all these factors are valid simultaniously, superior importance in the following parts is given on the multiple equilibria approach. The main part of the paper discusses the most influencial reform proposals of academics and institutions such as the IMF or the Group of 22. Approaches for a new financial architecture are divided into issues of the exchange-rate regime, public and private liquidity, and the institutional framework. These recommandations include questions of dollarization; an international lender of last resort; insurance agencies and credit facilities; capital controls; improved regulation and transparency; as well as the addidition of collective action clauses and alike to international bond contracts. They are assessed according to the criteria developed before, especially with regard to the approaches of moral hazard, multiple equilibria, and original sin. Taking into account that any grand scheme is rather unlikely to be realized on short notice, the conclusions concentrate on moderest reform proposals which can be pursued by emerging countries indiviually or with the assistance [...]

Author : Istvan Gyongyossy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 159 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2013-06-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401719476

Get Book

International Money Flows and Currency Crises by Istvan Gyongyossy Pdf

The author had already become involved with the subject of this book when President Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar on August 15, 1971. This declaration was equivalent to an official admission of the previously evident failure of the inter national monetary system established in Bretton Woods after long and difficult negotiations. Although the real reasons for this failure are much deeper and more complex, the immediate cause was the tremendous outjlow of money from the United States to Europe and Japan. Never before had economic history recorded a currency movement of such magnitude, although during the periods preceding the devaluation of the French franc and the re valuation of the Deutsche Mark (Le. , by the end of 1968 and mostly in 1969), and particularly at the beginning of 1971, the in ternational flow of money grew to such huge proportions as to alm ost traumatize the economic and financial circles of developed capitalist countries. These economic and financial circles correctly foresaw that the ever growing and hardly controllable volume of currency flow could seriously endanger the already precarious balance of the international financial system and perhaps even upset it. This brief analysis, in contrast to many other predictions of cur rency developments, holds true for a longer period as well.