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The Decision Book by Mikael Krogerus,Roman Tschäppeler Pdf
Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? This updated edition of the international bestseller distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses, and elsewhere, that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.
The Decision Book by Mikael Krogerus,Roman Tschäppeler Pdf
Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? How can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? This updated edition of the international bestseller distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses, and elsewhere, that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you'll have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.
Co-owner of Boston Pizza and star of CBC-TV’s Dragons’ Den, Jim Treliving reveals the secrets of his success, taking you behind the scenes at critical points in the building of his businesses—which also include Mr. Lube and interests in real estate and sports franchising. Covering the “big” decisions—from what to do with your life to how to source capital, find partners, handle change and inspire growth—Treliving sets out the tools for making effective choices and explains why every decision requires action. He also discusses how to bounce back from those no-so-good decisions, explaining how to refocus and recalibrate, just as Treliving had to do when he realized that Boston Pizza’s expansion into Asia was causing the company to drift off-brand. Pulling back from Asian opportunities was a tough decision at the time, but the move became crucial to guiding successful BP expansions later on. Always candid, Treliving also shares his insights on some very public choices, ones you may have seen him make on The Big Decision or Dragons’ Den. Down to earth, sensible and filled with vision and humour, Decisions is a book for budding entrepreneurs and for those who want the inside business stories beyond what we see on TV. But it’s also for people who want to transform their companies into ones that create steady wealth and lasting success. Even if you’re not in business, Treliving’s inspiring story and astute advice will help you make wiser decisions in your life and move forward with confidence in your chosen field.
Author : Gary A. Klein Publisher : MIT Press Page : 372 pages File Size : 52,8 Mb Release : 1999-02-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780262260862
Anyone who watches the television news has seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. Gary Klein is one of the developers of the naturalistic decision making approach, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced. It documents human strengths and capabilities that so far have been downplayed or ignored. Since 1985, Klein has conducted fieldwork to find out how people tackle challenges in difficult, nonroutine situations. Sources of Power is based on observations of humans acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. The professionals studied include firefighters, critical care nurses, pilots, nuclear power plant operators, battle planners, and chess masters. Each chapter builds on key incidents and examples to make the description of the methodology and phenomena more vivid. In addition to providing information that can be used by professionals in management, psychology, engineering, and other fields, the book presents an overview of the research approach of naturalistic decision making and expands our knowledge of the strengths people bring to difficult tasks.
Winning Decisions by J. Edward Russo,Paul J.H. Schoemaker Pdf
Business revolves around making decisions, often risky decisions, usually with incomplete information and too often in less time than we need. Executives at every level, in every industry, are confronted with information overload, less leeway for mistakes, and a business environment that changes rapidly. In light of this increased pressure and volatility, the old-fashioned ways of making decisions–depending on intuition, common sense, and specialized expertise–are simply no longer sufficient. Distilling over thirty years of groundbreaking research, Winning Decisions, written by two seasoned business advisers and world leaders in behavioral decision studies, is a comprehensive, one-of-a-kind guide to the proven methods of making critical business decisions confidently, quickly–and correctly. Decision-making is a business skill which managers often take for granted in themselves and others–but it's not as easy as some might think. The authors, whose expertise has been sought out by over a hundred companies, including Arthur Andersen, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Unilever, contend that decision-making, like any other skill, must be developed and honed if it is to be used effectively. Winning Decisions offers step-by-step analyses of how people typically make decisions, and provides invaluable advice on how to improve your chances of getting your next big decision right the first time. The book is packed with worksheets, tools, questionnaires, case studies, and anecdotes analyzing major decisions made by organizations like British Airways, NASA, Shell Oil, and Pepsi. Some of the proven, straightforward techniques covered in Winning Decisions include how to: Reframe issues to ensure that the real problem is being addressedImprove the quality and quantity of your options Convert expert yet conflicting opinions into useful insights Make diversity of views and conflict work to your advantage Foster efficient and effective group decision-making Learn from past decisions--your own and those of others With Winning Decisions, managers and other professionals now have access to a proven set of skills and strategies they need for making the right decision, right away.
The economic crisis of 2008–2009 was a transformational event: it demonstrated that smart people aren't as smart as they and the public think. The crisis arose because a lot of highly educated people in high-impact positions— political power brokers, business leaders, and large segments of the general public—made a lot of bad decisions despite unprecedented access to data, highly sophisticated decision support systems, methodological advances in the decision sciences, and guidance from highly experienced experts. How could we get things so wrong? The answer, says J. Davidson Frame in Framing Decisions: Decision Making That Accounts for Irrationality, People, and Constraints, is that traditional processes do not account for the three critical immeasurable elements highlighted in the book's subtitle— irrationality, people, and constraints. Frame argues that decision-makers need to move beyond their single-minded focus on rational and optimal solutions as preached by the traditional paradigm. They must accommodate a decision's social space and address the realities of dissimulation, incompetence, legacy, greed, peer pressure, and conflict. In the final analysis, when making decisions of consequence, they should focus on people – both as individuals and in groups. Framing Decisions offers a new approach to decision making that gets decision-makers to put people and social context at the heart of the decision process. It offers guidance on how to make decisions in a real world filled with real people seeking real solutions to their problems.
Student Solutions Manual to Accompany Loss Models: From Data to Decisions by Stuart A. Klugman Pdf
Solutions manual to accompany a text with comprehensive coverage of actuarial modeling techniques The Student Solutions Manual to Accompany Loss Models: From Data to Decisions covers solutions related to the companion text. The manual and text are designed for use by actuaries and those studying for the profession. Readers can learn modeling techniques used across actuarial science. Knowledge of the techniques is also beneficial for those who use loss data to build models for risk assessment.
Smart Choices by John S. Hammond,Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa Pdf
Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
Should I buy dark chocolate or milk chocolate? Which college should I attend? Should I be married or single? We face thousands of decisions, big and small, every day. But have you ever felt like you are too busy "discerning" to actually decide? True decision-making is more than just thinking about something . . . decisions involve taking action. YouTube star, Fr. Mike Schmitz, gives you the tools to decide what to do with your life today, tomorrow, and in the future with clarity and confidence. In this little book you will learn to: know when God is speaking, how to recognize the "signs," and make wise decisions for your life. Fate is when you're fixed; you don't have a choice. Destiny is your destination . . . Know your destiny.
Guide for Making Acute Risk Decisions by CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety) Pdf
This book presents a guidance on a large range of decision aids for risk analysts and decision makers in industry so that vital decisions can be made in a more consistent, logical, and rigorous manner. It provide good industry practices on how risk decision making is conducted in the chemical industry from many risk information sources as well as all the elements that need to be addressed to ensure good decisions are being made. Topics Include: Identifying Risk Decisions, A Risk Decision Strategy for Process Safety, Case Studies in Risk Decision Making Failures, Guidance on Selecting Decision Aids, Templates for Decision Making in Risk-Based Process Safety, Understanding Process Hazards & Worst Possible Consequences, Management of Change as an Exercise in Risk Identification, Inherently Safer Design as an Exercise in Risk Tradeoff Analysis, Using LOPA and Risk Matrices in Risk Decisions, Using CPQRA and Safety Risk Criteria in Risk Decisions, Group Decision Making, Avoiding Decision Traps, Documentation of Process Safety Risk Decisions
Discovering the Decisions within Your Business Processes using IBM Blueworks Live by Margaret Thorpe,Juliana Holm,Genevieve van den Boer,IBM Redbooks Pdf
In today's competitive, always-on global marketplace, businesses need to be able to make better decisions more quickly. And they need to be able to change those decisions immediately in order to adapt to this increasingly dynamic business environment. Whether it is a regulatory change in your industry, a new product introduction by a competitor that your organization needs to react to, or a new market opportunity that you want to quickly capture by changing your product pricing. Decisions like these lie at the heart of your organization's key business processes. In this IBM® RedpaperTM publication, we explore the benefits of identifying and documenting decisions within the context of your business processes. We describe a straightforward approach for doing this by using a business process and decision discovery tool called IBM Blueworks LiveTM, and we apply these techniques to a fictitious example from the auto insurance industry to help you better understand the concepts. This paper was written with a non-technical audience in mind. It is intended to help business users, subject matter experts, business analysts, and business managers get started discovering and documenting the decisions that are key to their company's business operations.
Individual and Small Group Decisions by K.J. Radford Pdf
ecision making is one of the most important activities in both our profes D sional and our private lives today. The literature on the subject has grown considerably over the last fifty years and it now covers many different approaches to the subject. These approaches range from that of creating a mathematical model of the decision situation under consideration, as in operations research and other forms of mathematical decision analysis, to those that are based on human and organizational behavior. Recently, those working in the field have begun to combine approaches to the study of decision situations that arise in organizations, in our personal lives and in the communities in which we live. This book is an attempt to assist those concerned with decision making to work with this combination of approaches. In the past, decision problems have been considered according to the condi tions under which they arise and to some extent in terms of the approaches available for their resolution. Writers on the subject who are mathematically oriented have devised a method of classifying decisions based on the type of mathematics that they suggest be used in the resolution of the problems. This approach leads to the division of decision situations into the categories of cer tainty, uncertainty, risk and competition. Deterministic models available in oper ations research have then been offered as the means of treating decision situations in the category of certainty.
Data Driven Business Decisions by Chris J. Lloyd Pdf
A hands-on guide to the use of quantitative methods and software for making successful business decisions The appropriate use of quantitative methods lies at the core of successful decisions made by managers, researchers, and students in the field of business. Providing a framework for the development of sound judgment and the ability to utilize quantitative and qualitative approaches, Data Driven Business Decisions introduces readers to the important role that data plays in understanding business outcomes, addressing four general areas that managers need to know about: data handling and Microsoft Excel®, uncertainty, the relationship between inputs and outputs, and complex decisions with trade-offs and uncertainty. Grounded in the author's own classroom approach to business statistics, the book reveals how to use data to understand the drivers of business outcomes, which in turn allows for data-driven business decisions. A basic, non-mathematical foundation in statistics is provided, outlining for readers the tools needed to link data with business decisions; account for uncertainty in the actions of others and in patterns revealed by data; handle data in Excel®; translate their analysis into simple business terms; and present results in simple tables and charts. The author discusses key data analytic frameworks, such as decision trees and multiple regression, and also explores additional topics, including: Use of the Excel® functions Solver and Goal Seek Partial correlation and auto-correlation Interactions and proportional variation in regression models Seasonal adjustment and what it reveals Basic portfolio theory as an introduction to correlations Chapters are introduced with case studies that integrate simple ideas into the larger business context, and are followed by further details, raw data, and motivating insights. Algebraic notation is used only when necessary, and throughout the book, the author utilizes real-world examples from diverse areas such as market surveys, finance, economics, and business ethics. Excel® add-ins StatproGo and TreePlan are showcased to demonstrate execution of the techniques, and a related website features extensive programming instructions as well as insights, data sets, and solutions to problems included in the material. Data Driven Business Decisions is an excellent book for MBA quantitative analysis courses or undergraduate general statistics courses. It also serves as a valuable reference for practicing MBAs and practitioners in the fields of statistics, business, and finance.
Game designers today are expected to have an arsenal of multi-disciplinary skills at their disposal in the fields of art and design, computer programming, psychology, economics, composition, education, mythology—and the list goes on. How do you distill a vast universe down to a few salient points? Players Making Decisions brings together the wide range of topics that are most often taught in modern game design courses and focuses on the core concepts that will be useful for students for years to come. A common theme to many of these concepts is the art and craft of creating games in which players are engaged by making meaningful decisions. It is the decision to move right or left, to pass versus shoot, or to develop one’s own strategy that makes the game enjoyable to the player. As a game designer, you are never entirely certain of who your audience will be, but you can enter their world and offer a state of focus and concentration on a task that is intrinsically rewarding. This detailed and easy-to-follow guide to game design is for both digital and analog game designers alike and some of its features include: A clear introduction to the discipline of game design, how game development teams work, and the game development process Full details on prototyping and playtesting, from paper prototypes to intellectual property protection issues A detailed discussion of cognitive biases and human decision making as it pertains to games Thorough coverage of key game elements, with practical discussions of game mechanics, dynamics, and aesthetics Practical coverage of using simulation tools to decode the magic of game balance A full section on the game design business, and how to create a sustainable lifestyle within it