Deterrence In The Second Nuclear Age

Author : Keith B. Payne
Publisher : University Press of Kentucky
Page : 223 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780813184135

Get Book

Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age by Keith B. Payne Pdf

Keith Payne begins by asking, "Did we really learn how to deter predictably and reliably during the Cold War?" He answers cautiously in the negative, pointing out that we know only that our policies toward the Soviet Union did not fail. What we can be more certain of, in Payne's view, is that such policies will almost assuredly fail in the Second Nuclear Age—a period in which direct nuclear threat between superpowers has been replaced by threats posed by regional "rogue" powers newly armed with chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. The fundamental problem with deterrence theory is that is posits a rational—hence predictable—opponent. History frequently demonstrates the opposite. Payne argues that as the one remaining superpower, the United States needs to be more flexible in its approach to regional powers.

Author : Colin S. Gray
Publisher : Lynne Rienner Publishers
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : History
ISBN : 1555873316

Get Book

The Second Nuclear Age by Colin S. Gray Pdf

The author takes issue with the complacent belief that a happy mixture of deterrence, arms control and luck will enable humanity to cope adequately with weapons of mass destruction, arguing that the risks are ever more serious.

Author : Toshi Yoshihara,James R. Holmes
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781589019294

Get Book

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age by Toshi Yoshihara,James R. Holmes Pdf

A “second nuclear age” has begun in the post-Cold War world. Created by the expansion of nuclear arsenals and new proliferation in Asia, it has changed the familiar nuclear geometry of the Cold War. Increasing potency of nuclear arsenals in China, India, and Pakistan, the nuclear breakout in North Korea, and the potential for more states to cross the nuclear-weapons threshold from Iran to Japan suggest that the second nuclear age of many competing nuclear powers has the potential to be even less stable than the first. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances. By focusing sharply on strategy—that is, on how states use doomsday weaponry for political gain—the book distinguishes itself from familiar net assessments emphasizing quantifiable factors like hardware, technical characteristics, and manpower. While the emphasis varies from chapter to chapter, contributors pay special heed to the logistical, technological, and social dimensions of strategy alongside the specifics of force structure and operations. They never lose sight of the human factor—the pivotal factor in diplomacy, strategy, and war.

Author : Paul Bracken
Publisher : Macmillan
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2012-11-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781429945042

Get Book

The Second Nuclear Age by Paul Bracken Pdf

A leading international security strategist offers a compelling new way to "think about the unthinkable." The cold war ended more than two decades ago, and with its end came a reduction in the threat of nuclear weapons—a luxury that we can no longer indulge. It's not just the threat of Iran getting the bomb or North Korea doing something rash; the whole complexion of global power politics is changing because of the reemergence of nuclear weapons as a vital element of statecraft and power politics. In short, we have entered the second nuclear age. In this provocative and agenda-setting book, Paul Bracken of Yale University argues that we need to pay renewed attention to nuclear weapons and how their presence will transform the way crises develop and escalate. He draws on his years of experience analyzing defense strategy to make the case that the United States needs to start thinking seriously about these issues once again, especially as new countries acquire nuclear capabilities. He walks us through war-game scenarios that are all too realistic, to show how nuclear weapons are changing the calculus of power politics, and he offers an incisive tour of the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia to underscore how the United States must not allow itself to be unprepared for managing such crises. Frank in its tone and farsighted in its analysis, The Second Nuclear Age is the essential guide to the new rules of international politics.

Author : Christopher M Stone
Publisher : Independently Published
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2020-07-19
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9798667188452

Get Book

Deterring the Unthinkable by Christopher M Stone Pdf

Since the end of the Cold War, thinking about space deterrence at the nuclear threshold has been virtually ignored as unrealistic and unthinkable. However, with the advent of a second nuclear age, where multiple players are now finding renewed utility in thermonuclear weapons coupled with proliferated missile technology and space access, the former concepts of escalation control, and recent concepts like space mission assurance and resilience, may not be sufficient to deter nuclear threshold space deterrence scenarios propagated by rogue states. Using comparative analysis and theory testing methodology, this research will explore the history of United States' posture and thoughts regarding space and nuclear deterrence with an alternative framework for space deterrence: a tiered, tailored framework. A more tailored approach, based upon strategic cultural and behavioral analysis behind force postures of offensive space superiority and damage limitation capability enable a more flexible and survivable posture for Tier 1 space deterrence in the second nuclear age.

Author : Ashley J. Tellis,Abraham M. Denmark,Travis Tanner
Publisher : NBR
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2013-09-25
Category : History
ISBN : 9781939131287

Get Book

Strategic Asia 2013-14 by Ashley J. Tellis,Abraham M. Denmark,Travis Tanner Pdf

The 2013-14 Strategic Asia volume examines the role of nuclear weapons in the grand strategies of key Asian states and assesses the impact of these capabilities—both established and latent—on regional and international stability. In each chapter, a leading expert explores the historical, strategic, and political factors that drive a country's calculations vis-a-vis nuclear weapons and draws implications for American interests.

Author : Lawrence Rubin,Adam N. Stulberg
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2018-09-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781626166042

Get Book

The End of Strategic Stability? by Lawrence Rubin,Adam N. Stulberg Pdf

During the Cold War, many believed that the superpowers shared a conception of strategic stability, a coexistence where both sides would compete for global influence but would be deterred from using nuclear weapons. In actuality, both sides understood strategic stability and deterrence quite differently. Today’s international system is further complicated by more nuclear powers, regional rivalries, and nonstate actors who punch above their weight, but the United States and other nuclear powers still cling to old conceptions of strategic stability. The purpose of this book is to unpack and examine how different states in different regions view strategic stability, the use or non-use of nuclear weapons, and whether or not strategic stability is still a prevailing concept. The contributors to this volume explore policies of current and potential nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. This volume makes an important contribution toward understanding how nuclear weapons will impact the international system in the twenty-first century and will be useful to students, scholars, and practitioners of nuclear weapons policy.

Author : Gregory D. Koblentz
Publisher : Council on Foreign Relations
Page : 65 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2014-11-01
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
ISBN : 9780876096116

Get Book

Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age by Gregory D. Koblentz Pdf

The world has entered a second nuclear age shaped by rising nuclear states and military technologies. Gregory Koblentz argues that the United States should work with the other nuclear-armed states to manage threats to nuclear stability in the near term and establish processes for multilateral arms control efforts over the longer term.

Author : Vipin Narang
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2014-05-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691159836

Get Book

Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era by Vipin Narang Pdf

The world is in a second nuclear age in which regional powers play an increasingly prominent role. These states have small nuclear arsenals, often face multiple active conflicts, and sometimes have weak institutions. How do these nuclear states—and potential future ones—manage their nuclear forces and influence international conflict? Examining the reasoning and deterrence consequences of regional power nuclear strategies, this book demonstrates that these strategies matter greatly to international stability and it provides new insights into conflict dynamics across important areas of the world such as the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Vipin Narang identifies the diversity of regional power nuclear strategies and describes in detail the posture each regional power has adopted over time. Developing a theory for the sources of regional power nuclear strategies, he offers the first systematic explanation of why states choose the postures they do and under what conditions they might shift strategies. Narang then analyzes the effects of these choices on a state's ability to deter conflict. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, he shows that, contrary to a bedrock article of faith in the canon of nuclear deterrence, the acquisition of nuclear weapons does not produce a uniform deterrent effect against opponents. Rather, some postures deter conflict more successfully than others. Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era considers the range of nuclear choices made by regional powers and the critical challenges they pose to modern international security.

Author : Gregory D. Koblentz
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2022
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1396891324

Get Book

Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age by Gregory D. Koblentz Pdf

Author : Douglas MacLean
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 202 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015007021440

Get Book

The Security Gamble by Douglas MacLean Pdf

Striking a balance between the philosophical and the pragmatic, these original essays examine the moral and strategic paradoxes found in the policy of nuclear deterrence, how uncertainty and fear can become a source of strength and how increased power of destruction might make us safer. The essays analyze the logical structure of mutually assured destruction theory and of nuclear use theory, the moral arguments of the Pastoral Letter on Deterrence of the National Conference of Catholic Bishops, the nuclear freeze movement and the role of experts in the formulation of nuclear policy. The authors stress the need for responsible public involvement and the obligation of citizens to be informed on these questions. ISBN 0-8476-7329-4 : $29.95.

Author : John J. Mearsheimer
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 1985-08-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781501713255

Get Book

Conventional Deterrence by John J. Mearsheimer Pdf

Conventional Deterrence is a book about the origins of war. Why do nations faced with the prospect of large-scale conventional war opt for or against an offensive strategy? John J. Mearsheimer examines a number of crises that led to major conventional wars to explain why deterrence failed. He focuses first on Allied and German decision making in the years 1939–1940, analyzing why the Allies did not strike first against Germany after declaring war and, conversely, why the Germans did attack the West. Turning to the Middle East, he examines the differences in Israeli and Egyptian strategic doctrines prior to the start of the major conventional conflicts in that region. Mearsheimer then critically assays the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact to determine the prospects for conventional deterrence in any future crisis. He is also concerned with examining such relatively technical issues as the impact of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on conventional deterrence and the debate over maneuver versus attrition warfare.Mearsheimer pays considerable attention to questions of military strategy and tactics. Challenging the claim that conventional detrrence is largely a function of the numerical balance of forces, he also takes issue with the school of thought that ascribes deterrence failures to the dominance of "offensive" weaponry. In addition to examining the military consideration underlying deterrence, he also analyzes the interaction between those military factors and the broader political considerations that move a nation to war.

Author : Brent David Ziarnick
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
ISBN : OCLC:957164565

Get Book

Space-based Counterforce in the Second Nuclear Age by Brent David Ziarnick Pdf

"Some scholars argue that the world has entered the 'Second Nuclear Age' in which nuclear proliferation has invalidated traditional deterrence assumptions. Air Force leaders believe this new 'multipolar, proliferated world requires new ideas, concepts, and analyses.' To address this concern, this paper explores the possibility of limited nuclear wars and how the United States may respond to them. In doing so, it reopens the debate between Thomas Schelling and Herman Kahn regarding the nature of deterrence and reconsiders one of Strategic Air Command's boldest strategic weapons system proposals. The paper combines modern nuclear scholarship with recently declassified Air Force documents from the 1960s to argue that the Second Nuclear Age will require a more Kahn-like 'escalation dominance' deterrence posture rather than the Schelling-inspired 'balance of terror' deterrence that guided Cold War postures. Further, the old nuclear Triad may no longer be sufficient. The paper concludes that space-based nuclear deterrence may be the only method to establish true dominance and that Project Orion, an audacious plan championed by SAC General Thomas Power to develop advanced spaceships propelled by nuclear explosives, may be a vital strategic capability to ensure the United States can reliably deter adversaries in the Second Nuclear Age"--Abstract.

Author : Thérèse Delpech
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2012-03-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780833059444

Get Book

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century by Thérèse Delpech Pdf

Deterrence remains a primary doctrine for dealing with the threat of nuclear weapons in the 21st century. The author reviews the history of nuclear deterrence and calls for a renewed intellectual effort to address the relevance of concepts such as first strike, escalation, extended deterrence, and other Cold War-era strategies in today's complex world of additional superpowers, smaller nuclear powers, and nonstate actors.

Author : Colin S. Gray,Lynne Rienner Publishers
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1588266125

Get Book

The Second Nuclear Age by Colin S. Gray,Lynne Rienner Publishers Pdf