Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire

Author : Thomas F. Flynn
Publisher : Universal-Publishers
Page : 379 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2011-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781599423944

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Development of a Forecasting Model to Predict the Downturn and Upturn of a Real Estate Market in the Inland Empire by Thomas F. Flynn Pdf

Amidst the dramatic real estate fluctuations in the first decade of the twenty-first century, this study recognized that there is a necessity to create a real estate prediction model for future real estate ventures and prevention of losses such as the mortgage meltdown and housing bust. This real estate prediction model study sought to reinstall the integrity into the American building and development industry, which was tarnished by the sudden emergence of various publications offering get-rich-quick schemes. In the fast-paced and competitive world of lending and real estate development, it is becoming more complex to combine current and evolving factors into a profitable business model. This prediction model correlated past real estate cycle pinpoints to economical driving forces in order to create an ongoing formula. The study used a descriptive, secondary interpretation of raw data already available. Quarterly data was taken from the study's seven independent variables over a 24-year span from 1985 to 2009 to examine the correlation over two real estate cycles. Public information from 97 quarters (1985-2009) was also gathered on seven topics: consumer confidence, loan origination volume, construction employment statistics, migration, GDP, inflation, and interest rates. The Null hypothesis underwent a test of variance at a .05 level of significance. Multiple regression analysis uncovered that four of seven variables have correlated and could predict movement in real estate cycle evidence from previous data, based in the Inland Empire. GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire's real estate prediction model and global test. Findings from this study certify that there is correlation between economical driving factors and the real estate cycle. These correlations illustrate patterns and trends, which can become a prediction model using statistics. By interpreting and examining the data, this study believes that the prediction model is best utilized through pinpointing an exact numerical location by running calculations through the established global equation, and recommends further research and regular update of quarterly trends and movements in the real estate cycle and specific variables in the formula.

Author : Zan Yang,Jie Chen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783642540448

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Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China by Zan Yang,Jie Chen Pdf

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.

Author : James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226774749

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Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson Pdf

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Author : Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 749 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016-12-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315510392

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Forecasting for Economics and Business by Gloria González-Rivera Pdf

For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCR:31210012241509

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To Examine the Current Condition of the U.S. Banking Industry and Projections for the Bank Insurance Fund by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Pdf

Author : Chris Brooks,Sotiris Tsolacos
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2010-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781139487160

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Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting by Chris Brooks,Sotiris Tsolacos Pdf

As real estate forms a significant part of the asset portfolios of most investors and lenders, it is crucial that analysts and institutions employ sound techniques for modelling and forecasting the performance of real estate assets. Assuming no prior knowledge of econometrics, this book introduces and explains a broad range of quantitative techniques that are relevant for the analysis of real estate data. It includes numerous detailed examples, giving readers the confidence they need to estimate and interpret their own models. Throughout, the book emphasises how various statistical techniques may be used for forecasting and shows how forecasts can be evaluated. Written by a highly experienced teacher of econometrics and a senior real estate professional, both of whom are widely known for their research, Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is the first book to provide a practical introduction to the econometric analysis of real estate for students and practitioners.

Author : John E. Silvia,Azhar Iqbal,Sarah Watt House
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2016-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119350828

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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era by John E. Silvia,Azhar Iqbal,Sarah Watt House Pdf

Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.

Author : David Hendry,Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2019-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780300248241

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Forecasting by David Hendry,Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements Pdf

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Author : Elia Kacapyr
Publisher : M.E. Sharpe
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 156324764X

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Economic Forecasting by Elia Kacapyr Pdf

Future Prospects -- Summary -- Notes -- References -- Bibliography -- Index -- About the Author

Author : Marijn A. Bolhuis,Brett Rayner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2020-02-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513531724

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Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning by Marijn A. Bolhuis,Brett Rayner Pdf

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast errors than traditional models. By combining multiple machine learning models into ensembles, we lower forecast errors even further. We also identify measures of variable importance to help improve the transparency of machine learning-based forecasts. Applying the framework to Turkey reduces forecast errors by at least 30 percent relative to traditional models. The framework also better predicts economic volatility, suggesting that machine learning techniques could be an important part of the macro forecasting toolkit of many countries.

Author : Kenneth D. Lawrence,Ronald K. Klimberg
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857249593

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Advances in Business and Management Forecasting by Kenneth D. Lawrence,Ronald K. Klimberg Pdf

Intends to present advanced studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. This title includes topics such as: sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, and sales response models.

Author : Robert Fildes,Douglas Wood
Publisher : Greenwood-Heinemann Publishing
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:35128000832954

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Forecasting and Planning by Robert Fildes,Douglas Wood Pdf

Author : Inada Yoshihisa
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2018-03-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789813232389

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A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting by Inada Yoshihisa Pdf

This volume investigates the accuracy and dynamic performance of a high-frequency forecast model for the Japanese and United States economies based on the Current Quarter Model (CQM) or High Frequency Model (HFM) developed by the late Professor Emeritus Lawrence R. Klein. It also presents a survey of recent developments in high-frequency forecasts and gives an example application of the CQM model in forecasting Gross Regional Products (GRPs). Contents: Introduction: Background to a High-Frequency Model Forecast (Yoshihisa Inada) A Survey of Flash Data and Nowcasting in Japan (Nariyasu Yamasawa) The Development of the Japanese CQM and Examples of Its Dynamic Applications (Yoshihisa Inada) Utilization and Precision of the US Current Quarter Model (Yuzo Kumasaka) Using the High-Frequency Forecast Method to Estimate Local Government GRP (Ryoh Ogawa) Nationwide Development of Preliminary Estimates of Local Government GRPs (Hajime Watabe) Readership: Advance postgraduates and researchers studying high frequency model forecasting. Keywords: Current Quarter Model;High Frequency Model;Lawrence R Klein;Gross Regional Products;ForecastingReview:0

Author : Rendigs Fels,C. Elton Hinshaw
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 160 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1968
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015005455087

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Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points by Rendigs Fels,C. Elton Hinshaw Pdf

2-part assessment of research methods in respect of forecasting periods of economic recession and economic growth, with particular reference to the USA - comprises (1) an investigation of problems in economic research of forecasting and recognising business cycle peaks and troughs, and (2) an evaluation of the performance of the federal open market committee of the u.s.a. In anticipating and recognising 7 cyclical turns since the 2nd world war. References.

Author : Douglas Wood,Robert Fildes
Publisher : Longman Publishing Group
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : WISC:89031105810

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Forecasting for Business by Douglas Wood,Robert Fildes Pdf

Management development guide on the close relationship between management forecasting and decision making - focuses on forecasting techniques, (notably statistical analysis, linear programming and network analysis), and presents applications to specific forecasting problems (benchmark forecasting, causal models, economic forecasting for the UK, etc.). Graphs, references and statistical tables.