Developments In Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030424725

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Developments in Demographic Forecasting by Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : Federico Girosi,Gary King
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2008-08-24
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0691130957

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Demographic Forecasting by Federico Girosi,Gary King Pdf

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789051707472

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Populations, Projections, Politics by Henk A. De Gans Pdf

This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Author : National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2000-09-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309172028

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Beyond Six Billion by National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections Pdf

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Author : John Stillwell,Martin Clarke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2011-02-15
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048189304

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Population Dynamics and Projection Methods by John Stillwell,Martin Clarke Pdf

Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

Author : Wolfgang Lutz,James W. Vaupel,Dennis A. Ahlburg
Publisher : Population
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Social Science
ISBN : STANFORD:36105111367681

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Frontiers of Population Forecasting by Wolfgang Lutz,James W. Vaupel,Dennis A. Ahlburg Pdf

Author : H.A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789401147668

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Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by H.A. de Gans Pdf

Authors, scholars and scientists whose mother tongue is not one of the major languages of international communication are seriously disadvantaged. Some individuals, such as Joseph Conrad or Vladimir Nabokov, have overcome that handicap brilliantly. Others learn to live with it: they can express themselves sufficiently lucidly in a second language to make their voice heard internation ally. At least when they have something original or striking to say they will be certain to reach their peers. Most scientists and scholars fall into that category. Others, again, have to wait until their work has been translated before its value is recognised. This may apply even to those whose mother tongue is widely read. The writings of Frenchmen Lyotard, Derrida, Baudrillard or Foucault on post-modernism, on language, discourse and power, for example, had tremendous world-wide impact only after English translations appeared on the market. De Gans' study of the development of population forecasting in The Nether lands is another striking illustration of the effects a language barrier may have. He demonstrates convincingly that although a -possibly some what awkward Dutchman named Wiebols, was a pioneer of modern cohort component demo graphic forecasting, he never received international recognition for this. In his thesis of 1925 Wiebols employed the newest instruments of demographic analysis in improving forecasting methodology.

Author : Stanley K. Smith,Jeff Tayman,David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2006-04-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780306473722

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State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith,Jeff Tayman,David A. Swanson Pdf

The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

Author : Juha Alho,Bruce Spencer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2006-05-27
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780387283920

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Statistical Demography and Forecasting by Juha Alho,Bruce Spencer Pdf

Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Author : E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2006-04-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780306475627

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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote Pdf

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Author : Federico Girosi,Gary King
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 267 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2018-06-05
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780691186788

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Demographic Forecasting by Federico Girosi,Gary King Pdf

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2013-01-10
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309261968

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Aging and the Macroeconomy by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population Pdf

The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

Author : Stanley K. Smith,Jeff Tayman,David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 411 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2013-12-16
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789400775510

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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith,Jeff Tayman,David A. Swanson Pdf

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

Author : Robert Woods,Philip Rees
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 475 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2023-10-02
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781000929171

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Population Structures and Models by Robert Woods,Philip Rees Pdf

Originally published in 1986, this volume brings together geographical modelling of population change and demographic analysis of population structures and pattern. These 2 strands are interwoven in 3 key review chapters that summarize the study of spatial and temporal patterns of population, the modelling of spatial populations and the estimation of population processes. Findings reported include: An account of demographic transition; an exposé of the myth of ‘no fertility rises’ in the developing world in the 20th Century; a theory of population accounting; predicting migration flows for a system of regions; microsimulation methods to model population change; and demographic and economic processes integrated in an urban region model.

Author : John Bryant,Junni L. Zhang
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2018-06-27
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429841330

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Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting by John Bryant,Junni L. Zhang Pdf

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques