Population Forecasting 1895 1945

Author : H.A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789401147668

Get Book

Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by H.A. de Gans Pdf

Authors, scholars and scientists whose mother tongue is not one of the major languages of international communication are seriously disadvantaged. Some individuals, such as Joseph Conrad or Vladimir Nabokov, have overcome that handicap brilliantly. Others learn to live with it: they can express themselves sufficiently lucidly in a second language to make their voice heard internation ally. At least when they have something original or striking to say they will be certain to reach their peers. Most scientists and scholars fall into that category. Others, again, have to wait until their work has been translated before its value is recognised. This may apply even to those whose mother tongue is widely read. The writings of Frenchmen Lyotard, Derrida, Baudrillard or Foucault on post-modernism, on language, discourse and power, for example, had tremendous world-wide impact only after English translations appeared on the market. De Gans' study of the development of population forecasting in The Nether lands is another striking illustration of the effects a language barrier may have. He demonstrates convincingly that although a -possibly some what awkward Dutchman named Wiebols, was a pioneer of modern cohort component demo graphic forecasting, he never received international recognition for this. In his thesis of 1925 Wiebols employed the newest instruments of demographic analysis in improving forecasting methodology.

Author : Henk A. de Gans
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-15
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9401147671

Get Book

Population Forecasting 1895-1945 by Henk A. de Gans Pdf

Author : Pascal Kidder Whelpton,Hope Tisdale Eldridge,Jacob S. Seigel,United States. Bureau of the Census
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 1948
Category : Forecasting
ISBN : UIUC:30112058796423

Get Book

Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 by Pascal Kidder Whelpton,Hope Tisdale Eldridge,Jacob S. Seigel,United States. Bureau of the Census Pdf

Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030424725

Get Book

Developments in Demographic Forecasting by Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789051707472

Get Book

Populations, Projections, Politics by Henk A. De Gans Pdf

This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Author : Juha M. Alho,Svend E. Hougaard Jensen,Jukka Lassila
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2008-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781139470353

Get Book

Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by Juha M. Alho,Svend E. Hougaard Jensen,Jukka Lassila Pdf

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Author : Pascal Kidder Whelpton
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1948
Category : Demography
ISBN : LCCN:48045823

Get Book

Forecasts of the Population of the United States by Pascal Kidder Whelpton Pdf

Author : Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2019-03-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030050757

Get Book

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Author : Thomas K. Burch
Publisher : Springer
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2017-10-14
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783319654331

Get Book

Model-Based Demography by Thomas K. Burch Pdf

Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Author : E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2001-02-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780792368335

Get Book

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote Pdf

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Author : David A. Swanson,Jeff Tayman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 420 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2012-05-23
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048189540

Get Book

Subnational Population Estimates by David A. Swanson,Jeff Tayman Pdf

Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.

Author : Charlotte Höhn,Dragana Avramov,Irena E. Kotowska
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2008-03-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781402066115

Get Book

People, Population Change and Policies by Charlotte Höhn,Dragana Avramov,Irena E. Kotowska Pdf

This two-volume work explores social cohesion and the demographic challenges of low birth rates and population aging. The authors approach the topic from the perspective of citizens and key policy actors, analyzing attitudes from 14 European countries regarding the European integration process, demographic trends, and expectations towards private networks and public policies. Volume 2 focuses on demographic developments, gender issues, and aging.

Author : Juha Alho,Bruce Spencer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2006-05-27
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780387283920

Get Book

Statistical Demography and Forecasting by Juha Alho,Bruce Spencer Pdf

Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Author : Graziella Caselli,Jacques Vallin,Guillaume Wunsch
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 2857 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2006-01-03
Category : Reference
ISBN : 9780127656601

Get Book

Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set by Graziella Caselli,Jacques Vallin,Guillaume Wunsch Pdf

This four-volume collection of over 140 original chapters covers virtually everything of interest to demographers, sociologists, and others. Over 100 authors present population subjects in ways that provoke thinking and lead to the creation of new perspectives, not just facts and equations to be memorized. The articles follow a theory-methods-applications approach and so offer a kind of "one-stop shop" that is well suited for students and professors who need non-technical summaries, such as political scientists, public affairs specialists, and others. Unlike shorter handbooks, Demography: Analysis and Synthesis offers a long overdue, thorough treatment of the field. Choosing the analytical method that fits the data and the situation requires insights that the authors and editors of Demography: Analysis and Synthesis have explored and developed. This extended examination of demographic tools not only seeks to explain the analytical tools themselves, but also the relationships between general population dynamics and their natural, economic, social, political, and cultural environments. Limiting themselves to human populations only, the authors and editors cover subjects that range from the core building blocks of population change--fertility, mortality, and migration--to the consequences of demographic changes in the biological and health fields, population theories and doctrines, observation systems, and the teaching of demography. The international perspectives brought to these subjects is vital for those who want an unbiased, rounded overview of these complex, multifaceted subjects. Topics to be covered: * Population Dynamics and the Relationship Between Population Growth and Structure * The Determinants of Fertility * The Determinants of Mortality * The Determinants of Migration * Historical and Geographical Determinants of Population * The Effects of Population on Health, Economics, Culture, and the Environment * Population Policies * Data Collection Methods and Teaching about Population Studies * All chapters share a common format * Each chapter features several cross-references to other chapters * Tables, charts, and other non-text features are widespread * Each chapter contains at least 30 bibliographic citations

Author : Van der Kaa
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789401090223

Get Book

European Populations by Van der Kaa Pdf

The changing demographic landscape which Europe is facing today and in the next decades reflects the past. These changes constitute important challenges to European populations and societies. Shifts in fertility and family formation, in health, morbidity and mortality, in internal and international migration as well as changes in age structures, in households, in labour forces, and in population growth and decline, will influence the living conditions and well-being of Europe's population directly or indirectly. The demographic challenge also concerns the environment, local, regional and national developments, education, production and consumption patterns, economic competitiveness, social security, housing, employment and transport, and health and social care provisions. These issues, their mechanisms, determinants and consequences also challenge the scientific study of population. As a major forum and 'market place' for scientific demographic debate, the 1999 European Population Conference (EPC99) was organized to take up this challenge. On the threshold of the third millennium, European populations are united in diversity and face major demographic issues.