Error In Economics

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Error in Economics

Julian Reiss
Error in Economics Book PDF

Author : Julian Reiss
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2016-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317496823

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Error in Economics by Julian Reiss Pdf

What is the correct concept behind measures of inflation? Does money cause business activity or is it the other way around? Shall we stimulate growth by raising aggregate demand or rather by lowering taxes and thereby providing incentives to produce? Policy-relevant questions such as these are of immediate and obvious importance to the welfare of societies. The standard approach in dealing with them is to build a model, based on economic theory, answer the question for the model world and then apply the results to economic phenomena outside. Data come in, if at all, only in testing a limited number of the model's consequences. Despite some critical voices, economic methodology too has by and large subscribed to a "theory first" approach to applied economics. Error in Economics systematically develops an alternative to the theory-based orthodoxy. It places the methodical study of evidence at the centre of the scientific enterprise and thus provides a foundation for a methodology of evidence-based economics. But the book does not stop at the truism that claims should be based on the best available evidence. Rather, detailed studies in the areas of measurement, causal inference and policy analysis show what it means for a claim to be evidence-based in the context of a concrete case. The examples discussed concern topics as diverse as consumer price indices, radio spectrum auctions, the transmission mechanism, natural experiments on minimum wages and the evaluation of counterfactuals for policy. Error in Economics is essential reading for economic methodologists, philosophers of science and anyone interested in how claims about socio-economic matters are validated.

Error in Economics

Julian Reiss
Error in Economics Book PDF

Author : Julian Reiss
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2016-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317496816

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Error in Economics by Julian Reiss Pdf

What is the correct concept behind measures of inflation? Does money cause business activity or is it the other way around? Shall we stimulate growth by raising aggregate demand or rather by lowering taxes and thereby providing incentives to produce? Policy-relevant questions such as these are of immediate and obvious importance to the welfare of societies. The standard approach in dealing with them is to build a model, based on economic theory, answer the question for the model world and then apply the results to economic phenomena outside. Data come in, if at all, only in testing a limited number of the model's consequences. Despite some critical voices, economic methodology too has by and large subscribed to a "theory first" approach to applied economics. Error in Economics systematically develops an alternative to the theory-based orthodoxy. It places the methodical study of evidence at the centre of the scientific enterprise and thus provides a foundation for a methodology of evidence-based economics. But the book does not stop at the truism that claims should be based on the best available evidence. Rather, detailed studies in the areas of measurement, causal inference and policy analysis show what it means for a claim to be evidence-based in the context of a concrete case. The examples discussed concern topics as diverse as consumer price indices, radio spectrum auctions, the transmission mechanism, natural experiments on minimum wages and the evaluation of counterfactuals for policy. Error in Economics is essential reading for economic methodologists, philosophers of science and anyone interested in how claims about socio-economic matters are validated.

Truth, Errors, and Lies

Grzegorz W. Kołodko
Truth Errors and Lies Book PDF

Author : Grzegorz W. Kołodko
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2012-09-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231150699

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Truth, Errors, and Lies by Grzegorz W. Kołodko Pdf

Grzegorz W. Kolodko, one of the world's leading authorities on economics and development policy and a key architect of Poland's successful economic reforms, applies his far-reaching knowledge to the past and future of the world economy, introducing a framework for understanding our global situation that transcends any single discipline or paradigm. Deploying a novel mix of scientific evaluation and personal observation, Kolodko begins with a brief discussion of misinformation and its perpetuation in economics and politics. He criticizes the simplification of complex economic and social issues and investigates the link between developments in the global economy and cultural change, scientific discoveries, and political fluctuations. Underscoring the necessity of conceptual and theoretical innovation in understanding our global economic situation, Kolodko offers a provocative study of globalization and the possibility of coming out ahead in an era of worldwide interdependence. Deeply critical of neoliberalism, which sought to transfer economic control exclusively to the private sector, Kolodko explores the virtues of social-economic development and the new rules of the economic game. He concludes with a look at our near and distant future, questioning whether we have a say in its making.

Intellectual Path Dependence in Economics

Altug Yalcintas
Intellectual Path Dependence in Economics Book PDF

Author : Altug Yalcintas
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 189 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2016-03-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317704690

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Intellectual Path Dependence in Economics by Altug Yalcintas Pdf

Is economics always self-corrective? Do erroneous theorems permanently disappear from the market of economic ideas? Intellectual Path Dependence in Economics argues that errors in economics are not always corrected. Although economists are often critical and open-minded, unfit explanations are nonetheless able to reproduce themselves. The problem is that theorems sometimes survive the intellectual challenges in the market of economic ideas even when they are falsified or invalidated by criticism and an abundance of counter-evidence. A key question which often gets little or no attention is: why do economists not reject theories when they have been refuted by evidence and falsified by philosophical reasoning? This book explores the answer to this question by examining the phenomenon of intellectual path dependence in the history of economic thought. It argues that the key reason why economists do not reject refuted theories is the epistemic costs of starting to use new theories. Epistemic costs are primarily the costs of scarcity of the most valued element in academic production: time. Epistemic scarcity overwhelmingly dominates the evolution of scientific research in such a way that when researchers start off a new research project, they allocate time between replicable and un-replicable research. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in the methodology, philosophy and history of economics.

Measurement Error and Latent Variables in Econometrics

T. Wansbeek,E. Meijer
Measurement Error and Latent Variables in Econometrics Book PDF

Author : T. Wansbeek,E. Meijer
Publisher : North Holland
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2000-12-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105110175218

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Measurement Error and Latent Variables in Econometrics by T. Wansbeek,E. Meijer Pdf

The book first discusses in depth various aspects of the well-known inconsistency that arises when explanatory variables in a linear regression model are measured with error. Despite this inconsistency, the region where the true regression coeffecients lies can sometimes be characterized in a useful way, especially when bounds are known on the measurement error variance but also when such information is absent. Wage discrimination with imperfect productivity measurement is discussed as an important special case. Next, it is shown that the inconsistency is not accidental but fundamental. Due to an identification problem, no consistent estimators may exist at all. Additional information is desirable. This information can be of various types. One type is exact prior knowledge about functions of the parameters. This leads to the CALS estimator. Another major type is in the form of instrumental variables. Many aspects of this are discussed, including heteroskedasticity, combination of data from different sources, construction of instruments from the available data, and the LIML estimator, which is especially relevant when the instruments are weak. The scope is then widened to an embedding of the regression equation with measurement error in a multiple equations setting, leading to the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) model. This marks the step from measurement error to latent variables. Estimation of the EFA model leads to an eigenvalue problem. A variety of models is reviewed that involve eignevalue problems as their common characteristic. EFA is extended to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) by including restrictions on the parameters of the factor analysis model, and next by relating the factors to background variables. These models are all structural equation models (SEMs), a very general and important class of models, with the LISREL model as its best-known representation, encompassing almost all linear equation systems with latent variables. Estimation of SEMs can be viewed as an application of the generalized method of moments (GMM). GMM in general and for SEM in particular is discussed at great length, including the generality of GMM, optimal weighting, conditional moments, continuous updating, simulation estimation, the link with the method of maximum likelihood, and in particular testing and model evaluation for GMM. The discussion concludes with nonlinear models. The emphasis is on polynomial models and models that are nonlinear due to a filter on the dependent variables, like discrete choice models or models with ordered categorical variables.

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them

Gary Belsky,Thomas Gilovich
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them Book PDF

Author : Gary Belsky,Thomas Gilovich
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 343 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2009-12-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439169742

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Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them by Gary Belsky,Thomas Gilovich Pdf

Protect and grow your finances with help from this definitive and practical guide to behavioral economics—revised and updated to reflect new economic realities. In their fascinating investigation of the ways we handle money, Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich reveal the psychological forces—the patterns of thinking and decision making—behind seemingly irrational behavior. They explain why so many otherwise savvy people make foolish financial choices: why investors are too quick to sell winning stocks and too slow to sell losing shares, why home sellers leave money on the table and home buyers don’t get the biggest bang for their buck, why borrowers pay too much credit card interest and savers can’t sock away as much as they’d like, and why so many of us can’t control our spending. Focusing on the decisions we make every day, Belsky and Gilovich provide invaluable guidance for avoiding the financial faux pas that can cost thousands of dollars each year. Filled with fresh insight; practical advice; and lively, illustrative anecdotes, this book gives you the tools you need to harness the powerful science of behavioral economics in any financial environment.

Economics in One Lesson

Henry Hazlitt
Economics in One Lesson Book PDF

Author : Henry Hazlitt
Publisher : Crown Currency
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2010-08-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780307760623

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Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt Pdf

With over a million copies sold, Economics in One Lesson is an essential guide to the basics of economic theory. A fundamental influence on modern libertarianism, Hazlitt defends capitalism and the free market from economic myths that persist to this day. Considered among the leading economic thinkers of the “Austrian School,” which includes Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich (F.A.) Hayek, and others, Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993), was a libertarian philosopher, an economist, and a journalist. He was the founding vice-president of the Foundation for Economic Education and an early editor of The Freeman magazine, an influential libertarian publication. Hazlitt wrote Economics in One Lesson, his seminal work, in 1946. Concise and instructive, it is also deceptively prescient and far-reaching in its efforts to dissemble economic fallacies that are so prevalent they have almost become a new orthodoxy. Economic commentators across the political spectrum have credited Hazlitt with foreseeing the collapse of the global economy which occurred more than 50 years after the initial publication of Economics in One Lesson. Hazlitt’s focus on non-governmental solutions, strong — and strongly reasoned — anti-deficit position, and general emphasis on free markets, economic liberty of individuals, and the dangers of government intervention make Economics in One Lesson every bit as relevant and valuable today as it has been since publication.

A Guide to What's Wrong with Economics

Edward Fullbrook
A Guide to What s Wrong with Economics Book PDF

Author : Edward Fullbrook
Publisher : Anthem Press
Page : 332 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857287373

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A Guide to What's Wrong with Economics by Edward Fullbrook Pdf

During a time of accelerating momentum for radical change in the study of economics, 'A Guide to What's Wrong with Economics' comprehensively re-examines the shortcomings of neoclassical economics and considers a number of alternative formulations.

Common Mistakes in Economics by the Public, Students, Economists, and Nobel Laureates

Yew-Kwang Ng
Common Mistakes in Economics by the Public Students Economists and Nobel Laureates Book PDF

Author : Yew-Kwang Ng
Publisher : Nova Science Pub Incorporated
Page : 171 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1617616060

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Common Mistakes in Economics by the Public, Students, Economists, and Nobel Laureates by Yew-Kwang Ng Pdf

This book presents and discusses the most common mistakes in economics made by a vast majority of people in every aspect of society. Discussed herein are common misconceptions on economic issues, including such perennial issues like 'technical progress destroys jobs', 'immigration harms the domestic economy', 'population growth is undesirable', 'globalisation is bad'. Such misconceptions by a significant section of the general public do not just reflect inadequate understanding of how the economy functions, but may actually lead to unnecessary conflicts and impede progress and liberalisation. Understanding our mistakes on these issues may thus contribute to the advancement of our society and the progress towards a more harmonious world.

Philosophy of Economics

Julian Reiss
Philosophy of Economics Book PDF

Author : Julian Reiss
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2013-07-15
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781136763328

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Philosophy of Economics by Julian Reiss Pdf

Philosophy of Economics: A Contemporary Introduction is the first systematic textbook in the philosophy of economics. It introduces the epistemological, metaphysical and ethical problems that arise in economics, and presents detailed discussions of the solutions that have been offered. Throughout, philosophical issues are illustrated by and analysed in the context of concrete cases drawn from contemporary economics, the history of economic ideas, and actual economic events. This demonstrates the relevance of philosophy of economics both for the science of economics and for the economy. This text will provide an excellent introduction to the philosophy of economics for students and interested general readers alike.

False Feedback in Economics

Andrin Spescha
False Feedback in Economics Book PDF

Author : Andrin Spescha
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-07-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000417418

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False Feedback in Economics by Andrin Spescha Pdf

This book investigates why economics makes less visible progress over time than scientific fields with a strong practical component, where interactions with physical technologies play a key role. The thesis of the book is that the main impediment to progress in economics is "false feedback", which it defines as the false result of an empirical study, such as empirical evidence produced by a statistical model that violates some of its assumptions. In contrast to scientific fields that work with physical technologies, false feedback is hard to recognize in economics. Economists thus have difficulties knowing where they stand in their inquiries, and false feedback will regularly lead them in the wrong directions. The book searches for the reasons behind the emergence of false feedback. It thereby contributes to a wider discussion in the field of metascience about the practices of researchers when pursuing their daily business. The book thus offers a case study of metascience for the field of empirical economics. The main strength of the book are the numerous smaller insights it provides throughout. The book delves into deep discussions of various theoretical issues, which it illustrates by many applied examples and a wide array of references, especially to philosophy of science. The book puts flesh on complicated and often abstract subjects, particularly when it comes to controversial topics such as p-hacking. The reader gains an understanding of the main challenges present in empirical economic research and also the possible solutions. The main audience of the book are all applied researchers working with data and, in particular, those who have found certain aspects of their research practice problematic.

The Cult of Statistical Significance

Steve Ziliak,Deirdre Nansen McCloskey
The Cult of Statistical Significance Book PDF

Author : Steve Ziliak,Deirdre Nansen McCloskey
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2008-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780472050079

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The Cult of Statistical Significance by Steve Ziliak,Deirdre Nansen McCloskey Pdf

The Cult of Statistical Significance shows, field by field, how "statistical significance," a technique that dominates many sciences, has been a huge mistake. The authors find that researchers in a broad spectrum of fields, from agronomy to zoology, employ testing that doesn't "test" and estimating that doesn't "estimate". The facts will startle the outside reader: how could a group of brilliant scientists wander so far from scientific magnitudes? This study will encourage scientists who want to know how to get the statistical sciences back on track and fulfill their quantitative promise. The book shows for the first time how wide the disaster is, and how bad for science, and it traces the problem to its historical, sociological, and philosophical roots.

Epistemological Problems of Economics

Ludwig Von Mises
Epistemological Problems of Economics Book PDF

Author : Ludwig Von Mises
Publisher : Ludwig von Mises Institute
Page : 342 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Economics
ISBN : 9781610164610

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Epistemological Problems of Economics by Ludwig Von Mises Pdf

Collection of essays on economic theory. Most of the essays originally appeared in the late 1920s in German journals devoted to the social sciences, with the original German language collection being issued in 1933.

Political Arithmetic

Robert William Fogel,Enid M. Fogel,Mark Guglielmo,Nathaniel Grotte
Political Arithmetic Book PDF

Author : Robert William Fogel,Enid M. Fogel,Mark Guglielmo,Nathaniel Grotte
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 163 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2013-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226256610

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Political Arithmetic by Robert William Fogel,Enid M. Fogel,Mark Guglielmo,Nathaniel Grotte Pdf

We take for granted today that the assessments, measurements, and forecasts of economists are crucial to the decision-making of governments and businesses alike. But less than a century ago that wasn’t the case—economists simply didn’t have the necessary information or statistical tools to understand the ever more complicated modern economy. With Political Arithmetic, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Fogel and his collaborators tell the story of economist Simon Kuznets, the founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the creation of the concept of GNP, which for the first time enabled us to measure the performance of entire economies. The book weaves together the many strands of political and economic thought and historical pressures that together created the demand for more detailed economic thinking—Progressive-era hopes for activist government, the production demands of World War I, Herbert Hoover’s interest in business cycles as President Harding’s commerce secretary, and the catastrophic economic failures of the Great Depression—and shows how, through trial and error, measurement and analysis, economists such as Kuznets rose to the occasion and in the process built a discipline whose knowledge could be put to practical use in everyday decision-making. The product of a lifetime of studying the workings of economies and skillfully employing the tools of economics, Political Arithmetic is simultaneously a history of a key period of economic thought and a testament to the power of applied ideas.

Mostly Harmless Econometrics

Joshua D. Angrist,Jörn-Steffen Pischke
Mostly Harmless Econometrics Book PDF

Author : Joshua D. Angrist,Jörn-Steffen Pischke
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2009-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691120355

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Mostly Harmless Econometrics by Joshua D. Angrist,Jörn-Steffen Pischke Pdf

In addition to econometric essentials, this book covers important new extensions as well as how to get standard errors right. The authors explain why fancier econometric techniques are typically unnecessary and even dangerous.