Estimating The Impact Of External Shocks On The Eccu Application To The Covid Shock

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Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock

Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU Application to the COVID Shock Book PDF

Author : Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513585413

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Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock by Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas Pdf

We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.

Handbook of Regional Cooperation and Integration

Philippe De Lombaerde
Handbook of Regional Cooperation and Integration Book PDF

Author : Philippe De Lombaerde
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 531 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2024-02-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781800373747

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Handbook of Regional Cooperation and Integration by Philippe De Lombaerde Pdf

This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. This timely Handbook offers a detailed cross-policy assessment on the need, locale and impact of regional cooperation and integration, addressing how the principles of regional integration have affected multi-level governance and subsequent public policy. Individual chapters provide explanations of what regional cooperation means in a specific policy area, identify relevant theories, and present empirical evidence to support the arguments outlined.

Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-07-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400217272

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Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

Selected Issues

Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries Press Release Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Book PDF

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513572925

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Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near 1⁄2 percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.

Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World

Ms.Manuela Goretti,Mr.Lamin Y Leigh,Aleksandra Babii,Mr.Serhan Cevik,Stella Kaendera,Mr.Dirk V Muir,Sanaa Nadeem,Mr.Gonzalo Salinas
Tourism in the Post Pandemic World Book PDF

Author : Ms.Manuela Goretti,Mr.Lamin Y Leigh,Aleksandra Babii,Mr.Serhan Cevik,Stella Kaendera,Mr.Dirk V Muir,Sanaa Nadeem,Mr.Gonzalo Salinas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 115 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513561905

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Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World by Ms.Manuela Goretti,Mr.Lamin Y Leigh,Aleksandra Babii,Mr.Serhan Cevik,Stella Kaendera,Mr.Dirk V Muir,Sanaa Nadeem,Mr.Gonzalo Salinas Pdf

This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.

Caribbean Energy

Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz
Caribbean Energy Book PDF

Author : Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 67 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2016-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513560748

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Caribbean Energy by Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz Pdf

High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek
Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines Book PDF

Author : Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2019-07-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513508016

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Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek Pdf

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 109 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2019-10-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498324021

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Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021

International Monetary Fund
Global Financial Stability Report April 2021 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513569673

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

St. Lucia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St Lucia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 82 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2020-02-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513530963

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St. Lucia by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This 2019 Article IV Consultation explains that St. Lucia’s near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by large infrastructure investment and robust tourist inflows. However, longer-term growth continues to be impeded by high public debt, lingering vulnerabilities in the financial system, and structural impediments to private investment. Diminishing policy buffers further weaken the country’s resilience to external shocks against the backdrop of aprecarious global outlook. Completion of long pending legislative initiatives, alongside stronger regional and domestic financial oversight, should provide banks with incentives to strengthen their balance sheets and increase the efficiency of financial intermediation. There is also a need to draw on supervisory and regulatory tools to respond to emerging risks from rising overseas investments of the banks and the rapid expansion of lending by credit unions. The authorities are recommended to should step up efforts to address the institutional, financing and capacity gaps in its climate and disaster response strategy. Supply-side reforms are needed to unlock potential growth by improving the business environment, reducing energy costs, enhancing labor productivity, and further diversifying the economy.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020

United Nations Publications
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 Book PDF

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9211220513

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Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 by United Nations Publications Pdf

This publication outlines the region's economic performance in 2019 and analyses trends in the early months of 2020, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance, analyses the characteristics of growth, prices and the labour market, and draws attention to some of the macroeconomic policy challenges of the prevailing external conditions, amid mounting uncertainty stemming mainly from political factors. It analyses the dynamics of investment and its determinants, with a view to identifying the different variables on which public policy can act to influence the trajectory of investment. This edition also analyses the effects and challenges of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic for the region during 2020 and the outlook that is taking shape for the years to come.

Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States

Ali Alichi,Mr.Ippei Shibata,Kadir Tanyeri
Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States Book PDF

Author : Ali Alichi,Mr.Ippei Shibata,Kadir Tanyeri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2019-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498305488

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Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States by Ali Alichi,Mr.Ippei Shibata,Kadir Tanyeri Pdf

Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

Thordur Jonasson,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt Portfolio Risks Book PDF

Author : Thordur Jonasson,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 133 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2018-04-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484350546

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A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by Thordur Jonasson,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou Pdf

This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Hidetaka Nishizawa,Mr.Scott Roger,Huan Zhang
Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries Book PDF

Author : Hidetaka Nishizawa,Mr.Scott Roger,Huan Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-12
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513507989

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Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries by Hidetaka Nishizawa,Mr.Scott Roger,Huan Zhang Pdf

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.

Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration

Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo,Mr.Ruy Lama,Juan Pablo Medina,Jorge Puig,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Carlos Vegh,Guillermo Javier Vuletin
Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries An Empirical Exploration Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo,Mr.Ruy Lama,Juan Pablo Medina,Jorge Puig,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Carlos Vegh,Guillermo Javier Vuletin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2019-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513521114

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Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration by Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo,Mr.Ruy Lama,Juan Pablo Medina,Jorge Puig,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Carlos Vegh,Guillermo Javier Vuletin Pdf

Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.