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Author : Roger Koppl
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 293 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2018-02-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107138469
Roger Koppl develops a theory of experts and expert failure, and illustrates his theory with wide-ranging examples, including that of state regulation of economic activity.
Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
Page : 319 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2010-10-12
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780771035210
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Author : Tom Eisenmann
Publisher : Currency
Page : 370 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-03-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780593137024
If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.
Author : Jacqueline Best
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 287 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107035041
Traces an important shift in international development policy as global institutions have become preoccupied with policy failure. This title is also available as Open Access.
Author : Tom Nichols
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2017-02-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780190469436
Technology and increasing levels of education have exposed people to more information than ever before. These societal gains, however, have also helped fuel a surge in narcissistic and misguided intellectual egalitarianism that has crippled informed debates on any number of issues. Today, everyone knows everything: with only a quick trip through WebMD or Wikipedia, average citizens believe themselves to be on an equal intellectual footing with doctors and diplomats. All voices, even the most ridiculous, demand to be taken with equal seriousness, and any claim to the contrary is dismissed as undemocratic elitism. Tom Nichols' The Death of Expertise shows how this rejection of experts has occurred: the openness of the internet, the emergence of a customer satisfaction model in higher education, and the transformation of the news industry into a 24-hour entertainment machine, among other reasons. Paradoxically, the increasingly democratic dissemination of information, rather than producing an educated public, has instead created an army of ill-informed and angry citizens who denounce intellectual achievement. When ordinary citizens believe that no one knows more than anyone else, democratic institutions themselves are in danger of falling either to populism or to technocracy or, in the worst case, a combination of both. An update to the 2017breakout hit, the paperback edition of The Death of Expertise provides a new foreword to cover the alarming exacerbation of these trends in the aftermath of Donald Trump's election. Judging from events on the ground since it first published, The Death of Expertise issues a warning about the stability and survival of modern democracy in the Information Age that is even more important today.
Author : Daniel P. Dennies
Publisher : ASM International
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781615030484
Learning the proper steps for organizing a failure investigation ensures success. Failure investigations cross company functional boundaries and are an integral component of any design or manufacturing business operation. Well-organized and professionally conducted investigations are essential for solving manufacturing problems and assisting in redesigns. This book outlines a proven systematic approach to failure investigation. It explains the relationship between various failure sources (corrosion, for example) and the organization and conduct of the investigation. It provides a learning platform for engineers from all disciplines: materials, design, manufacturing, quality, and management. The examples in this book focus on the definition of and requirements for a professionally performed failure analysis of a physical object or structure. However, many of the concepts have much greater utility than for investigating the failure of physical objects. For example, the book provides guidance in areas such as learning how to define objectives, negotiating the scope of investigation, examining the physical evidence, and applying general problem-solving techniques.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : Daron Acemoglu,James A. Robinson
Publisher : Currency
Page : 546 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2013-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780307719225
Brilliant and engagingly written, Why Nations Fail answers the question that has stumped the experts for centuries: Why are some nations rich and others poor, divided by wealth and poverty, health and sickness, food and famine? Is it culture, the weather, geography? Perhaps ignorance of what the right policies are? Simply, no. None of these factors is either definitive or destiny. Otherwise, how to explain why Botswana has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world, while other African nations, such as Zimbabwe, the Congo, and Sierra Leone, are mired in poverty and violence? Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson conclusively show that it is man-made political and economic institutions that underlie economic success (or lack of it). Korea, to take just one of their fascinating examples, is a remarkably homogeneous nation, yet the people of North Korea are among the poorest on earth while their brothers and sisters in South Korea are among the richest. The south forged a society that created incentives, rewarded innovation, and allowed everyone to participate in economic opportunities. The economic success thus spurred was sustained because the government became accountable and responsive to citizens and the great mass of people. Sadly, the people of the north have endured decades of famine, political repression, and very different economic institutions—with no end in sight. The differences between the Koreas is due to the politics that created these completely different institutional trajectories. Based on fifteen years of original research Acemoglu and Robinson marshall extraordinary historical evidence from the Roman Empire, the Mayan city-states, medieval Venice, the Soviet Union, Latin America, England, Europe, the United States, and Africa to build a new theory of political economy with great relevance for the big questions of today, including: - China has built an authoritarian growth machine. Will it continue to grow at such high speed and overwhelm the West? - Are America’s best days behind it? Are we moving from a virtuous circle in which efforts by elites to aggrandize power are resisted to a vicious one that enriches and empowers a small minority? - What is the most effective way to help move billions of people from the rut of poverty to prosperity? More philanthropy from the wealthy nations of the West? Or learning the hard-won lessons of Acemoglu and Robinson’s breakthrough ideas on the interplay between inclusive political and economic institutions? Why Nations Fail will change the way you look at—and understand—the world.
Author : Andrew Paul Burtch
Publisher : UBC Press
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : History
ISBN : 9780774822404
What do you do when a nuclear weapon detonates nearby? During the early Cold War years of 1945-63, Civil Defence Canada and the Emergency Measures Organization planned for just such a disaster and encouraged citizens to prepare their families and their cities for nuclear war. By the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the civil defence program was widely mocked, and the public was vastly unprepared for nuclear war. Canada’s civil defence program was born in the early Cold War, when fears of conflict between the superpowers ran high. Give Me Shelter features previously unreleased documents detailing Canada’s nuclear survival plans. Andrew Burtch reveals how the organization publicly appealed to citizens to prepare for disaster themselves -- from volunteering as air-raid wardens to building fallout shelters. This tactic ultimately failed, however, due to a skeptical populace, chronic underfunding, and repeated bureaucratic fumbling. Give Me Shelter exposes the challenges of educating the public in the face of the looming threat of nuclear annihilation. Give Me Shelter explains how governments and the public prepared for the unexpected. It is essential reading for historians, policymakers, and anybody interested in Canada’s Cold War home front.
Author : Randle W. Nelsen
Publisher : Between the Lines
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2018-07-12
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781771133357
Author : M. A. P. Bovens,Paul T'Hart,B. Guy Peters
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 287 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2002-01-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781843762850
Why do some policies succeed so well while others, in the same sector or country, fail dramatically? The aim of this book is to answer this question and provide systematic research on the nature, sources and consequences of policy failure. The expert contributors analyse and evaluate the success and failure of four policy areas (Steel, Health Care, Finance, HIV and the Blood Supply) in six European countries, namely France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Spain and Sweden. The book is therefore able to compare success and failure across countries as well as policy areas, enabling a test of a variety of theoretical assumptions about policy making and government.
Author : Franco Ferrari,Friedrich Rosenfeld
Publisher : Kluwer Law International B.V.
Page : 690 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2022-04-07
Category : Law
ISBN : 9789403543246
In arbitration, evidence provides the basis for almost every decision, be it procedural, jurisdictional, or substantive. However, users from different legal traditions may not share the same understanding as to how an arbitral tribunal ought to proceed in this regard. Therefore, it is important for lawyers to know how to collect, develop, and present evidence in arbitration proceedings, not only from a legal perspective but also from a cultural point of view. It is against this backdrop that the editors have invited a diverse group of distinguished arbitration practitioners and academics to contribute to this matchless Handbook of Evidence in International Commercial Arbitration. Key concepts and issues related to evidence in arbitration covered include the following: the normative framework on evidence in arbitration proceedings; the burden and standard of proof; means of evidence, including documents, experts, and witnesses; questions of admissibility, including issues of privilege and confidentiality; the assessment of evidence and its probative value; court assistance and sanctions. With its systematic analysis of the key concepts of evidence, holistic discussion of the applicable normative framework, cross-cultural perspectives on the taking of evidence in arbitration, and reference to case law from major arbitration hubs, this book will become an undisputed point of reference for academics and practitioners alike. Critical acclaim: “This handbook elegantly captures the range of issues that arises regarding evidence in international arbitration. Bringing together the foremost experts in the field, each contribution offers a thoughtful analysis on these issues and the compilation deserves a prominent spot in every practitioner’s arbitral library.” Chiann Bao, Independent Arbitrator (Arbitration Chambers) and Vice President of the ICC Court of Arbitration “This publication well deserves recognition as a landmark handbook on evidence in international commercial arbitration. It comprehensively discusses the whole evidentiary process from its foundations taking a comparative and harmonizing perspective as well as the burden and standards of proof to the various evidentiary means up to the assessment of evidence. Written by leading academics and practitioners from all over the world, it will be a safe haven for anyone facing discrete evidentiary issues and looking for answers to fundamental or actual questions including as to privileges, confidentiality, virtual hearings or data protection.” Professor Filip De Ly, Chair of the ILA International Commercial Arbitration Committee
Author : Michael Fullan
Publisher : Corwin Press
Page : 105 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2018-11-20
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781544309941
Break the cycle of surface-level change and failure How do leaders become clearer as complexity increases? We live in a world where decisions require judgment, getting people on board, drawing on local knowledge, ingenuity, and commitment. As leaders, how do you get beneath surface-level change to tackle complex challenges with depth and clarity. Nuance is the answer. Michael Fullan returns with an eminently readable, compelling and practical guide on the three habits of nuance: joint determination, adaptability, and culture-based accountability. Learn how you can: · Combine the power of networks and humanity to get to desired destinations. · Embrace complexity and understand context to develop better judgment · Change the culture of your organization to harness the forces of nuance. · Develop quality change that sticks With tons of examples and case studies of this book makes explicit the hidden habits and mind frames of leaders who deliver lasting change.
Author : Mark McConville, Ph.D.
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2020-01-07
Category : Family & Relationships
ISBN : 9780525542209
From an expert in adolescent psychology comes a groundbreaking, timely, and necessary guide for parents of the 2.2 million young adults in America who are struggling to find their way in the world. In Dr. Mark McConville's decades of experience as a family clinical psychologist, perhaps no problem has been more fraught than that of young adults who fail to successfully transition from adolescence into adulthood. These kids--technically adults--just can't get it together: They can't hold a job, they struggle to develop meaningful relationships, and they often end up back in their parents' spare bedroom or on the couch. In fact, studies show that 1 in 4 Americans aged 25 to 34 neither work nor attend school, and it's a problem that spans all socioeconomic and geographic boundaries. McConville investigates the root causes of this problem: Why are modern kids "failing to launch" in ever-increasing numbers? The key, McConville has found, is that they are struggling with three critical skills that are necessary to make the transition from childhood to adulthood--finding a sense of purpose, developing administrative responsibility, and cultivating interdependence. In Failure to Launch, McConville breaks these down into achievable, accessible goals and offers a practical guide for the whole family, to help parents instill those skills in their young adults--and to get their kids into the real world, ready to start their lives.
Author : The Expert Panel on the Potential Socio-Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance in Canada
Publisher : Council of Canadian Academies
Page : 268 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-12
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781926522753
When Antibiotics Fail examines the current impacts of AMR on our healthcare system, projects the future impact on Canada’s GDP, and looks at how widespread resistance will influence the day-to-day lives of Canadians. The report examines these issues through a One Health lens, recognizing the interconnected nature of AMR, from healthcare settings to the environment to the agriculture sector. It is the most comprehensive report to date on the economic impact of AMR in Canada.
