Farm Households In Egypt A Typology For Assessing Vulnerability To Climate Change
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Farm households in Egypt: A typology for assessing vulnerability to climate change by Nin-Pratt, Alejandro,ElDidi, Hagar,Breisinger, Clemens Pdf
Using governorate-level national data and household survey data, we build a typology of farm households in Egypt that allows us to describe how different farm households behave in response to policy and environmental changes affecting their resources, welfare, and opportunities in output and input markets. One of the major contributions of this study is the building of a unique dataset that combines various data sources at different levels of aggregation, providing the information needed to model the farm typology. We used this dataset as the input of a multi-step procedure that includes the use of principal components and cluster analyses to identify 14 household types. To illustrate possible uses of the typology, we look at the vulnerability of the different types of households to projected changes in temperature, water availability, and water demand from crops due to climate change, and discuss which farmers, production systems, and regions will be most affected by climate shocks. We assumed that increased temperatures by 2050 would result in increased water demand and reduced yields for most crops due to heat stress and harsher growing conditions. We define three climate change scenarios that differ in the expected water flows of the Nile into the Aswan High Dam. Results of simulations using a household model suggest that Egypt is likely to experience a significant reduction in output, agricultural labor demand, and cultivated area because of climate change, although the severity of this outcome will depend on the magnitude of changes in the Nile’s flow. Most affected by these changes will be small and average households producing field crops. Our results suggest that to mitigate the risks and possible future impacts of climate change, the country will need to: Move away from policies supporting production of cereals and water-inefficient crops towards diversification of production into water-efficient high-value crops; facilitate the access of skilled resource-poor producers to capital and markets; and create opportunities for off-farm employment and income for smallholders that are using resources inefficiently.
Characteristics of smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt: Implications for nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions by El-Enbaby, Hoda,Ecker, Olivier,Figueroa, Jose Luis,Leroy, Jef L.,Breisinger, Clemens Pdf
This paper characterizes smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt based on data from a comprehensive farm household survey. The results from the descriptive analysis in combination with findings from the global literature provide recommendations on how agricultural projects can be leveraged for improving nutrition. The importance of focusing on nutrition is underlined by relatively high undernutrition and overnutrition rates among the surveyed farm households: almost 18 percent of children under five years of age are stunted and almost 25 percent of them are at risk of being overweight. Agricultural interventions can impact nutrition through six main pathways, which are: 1) providing direct access to food from own production; 2) providing a source of income from which food and other nutrition needs can be met; 3) affecting food prices; 4) affecting women’s social status and empowerment; 5) affecting women’s time use from participation in agricultural work; and 6) affecting women’s health and nutrition from engagement in agricultural activities. The surveyed farm households purchase in the market most of the foods that they consume, cultivating crops primarily for commercial sale. This finding suggests that access to food markets and the level of food prices are key determinants of food and nutrition security among smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt. The survey analysis also identified potential levers for increasing agricultural productivity, including promoting more efficient use of water, fertilizers, and pesticides and improving farming practices to narrow the productivity gap between small-scale farmers and medium and large-scale farmers. As the role of women in agricultural activities in Upper Egypt is limited, the gendered pathways for leveraging agriculture for improved nutrition are less relevant. However, to achieve positive impact on people’s diet or nutritional status that goes beyond income and price channels, programs that reach farm households in Upper Egypt should include education and behavioral change communication activities, including on themes related to breastfeeding, dietary diversity, physical activities, and sugar intake. For such activities to be effective, it is important to consider the low literacy levels in the population.
Climate vulnerability assessment methodology by Lotten Wiréhn Pdf
Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies. För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.
William R. Sutton,Jitendra P. Srivastava,James E. Neumann,Ana Iglesias,Brent B. Boehlert
Author : William R. Sutton,Jitendra P. Srivastava,James E. Neumann,Ana Iglesias,Brent B. Boehlert Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 151 pages File Size : 46,8 Mb Release : 2013-10-29 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781464800467
Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change by William R. Sutton,Jitendra P. Srivastava,James E. Neumann,Ana Iglesias,Brent B. Boehlert Pdf
This World Bank study brings together the forecast climate change impacts, costs vs. benefits of adaptation measures, and recommendations from the work conducted in Moldova.
Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change by William R Sutton,Jitendra P Srivastava,James E Neuman,Ana Iglesias,Brent B Boehlert Pdf
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in Moldova, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in Moldova cannot be effectively dealt withand the opportunities cannot be effectively exploitedwithout a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Moldova, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectivesone that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Moldova. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Moldova with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Moldovas three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Banks program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Albania, FYR Macedonia, and Uzbekistan. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website..
The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security: 2021 by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf
On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.
Migration, Environment and Climate Change by Frank Laczko,Christine Aghazarm Pdf
Gradual and sudden environmental changes are resulting in substantial human movement and displacement, and the scale of such flows, both internal and cross-border, is expected to rise with unprecedented impacts on lives and livelihoods. Despite the potential challenge, there has been a lack of strategic thinking about this policy area partly due to a lack of data and empirical research on this topic. Adequately planning for and managing environmentallyinduced migration will be critical for human security. The papers in this volume were first presented at the Research Workshop on Migration and the Environment: Developing a Global Research Agenda held in Munich, Germany in April 2008. One of the key objectives on the Munich workshop was to address the need for more sound empirical research and identify priority areas of research for policy makers in the field of migration and the environment.
Climate Change and Agriculture by Robert O. Mendelsohn,Ariel Dinar Pdf
The specific focus of this seminal work is on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture world wide, and how faced with the resultant environmental alterations, agriculture might adapt under varied and varying conditions. Enhanced with a detailed and comprehensive index, Climate Change and Agriculture is highly recommended for academic library environmental studies and economic studies reference collections and supplemental reading lists. The Midwest Book Review Despite its great importance, there are surprisingly few economic studies of the impact of climate on agriculture and how agriculture can adapt under a variety of conditions. This book examines 22 countries across four continents, including both developed and developing economies. It provides both a good analytical basis for additional work and solid results for policy debate concerning income distributional effects such as abatement, adaptation, and equity. Agriculture and grazing are a central sector in the livelihood of many people, particularly in developing countries. This book uses the Ricardian method to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. It also quantifies how farmers adapt to climate. The findings suggest that agriculture in developing countries is more sensitive to climate than agriculture in developed countries. Rain-fed cropland is generally more sensitive to warming than irrigated cropland and cropland is more sensitive than livestock. The adaptation to climate change results reveal that farmers make many adjustments including switching crops and livestock species, adopting irrigation, and moving between livestock and crops. The results also reveal that impacts and adaptations vary a great deal across landscapes, suggesting that adaptation policies must be location specific. Finally, the book suggests a research agenda for the future. Economists in academia and the public sector, policy analysts and development agencies will find this broad study illuminating.
SMALL-SCALE FAMILY FARMING IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf
This report provides an overview of a study conducted in the NENA region in 2015-2016 in partnership with FAO, CIRAD, CIHEAM-IAMM and six national teams, each of which prepared a national report. In the six countries under review in the NENA region (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Mauritania, Sudan and Tunisia), agriculture is carried out primarily by small-scale family farmers, the majority of whom run the risk of falling into the poverty trap, largely due to the continuous fragmentation of inherited landholdings. As such, the development of small-scale family farming can no longer be based solely on intensifying agriculture, as the farmers are not able to produce sufficient marketable surplus due to the limited size of their landholdings. An approach based strictly on agricultural activity is also insufficient (as small-scale family farms have already diversified their livelihoods with off-farm activities). In fact, developing small-scale farming cannot be achieved by focusing strictly on t he dimension of production.
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation by Bert Metz,Ogunlade Davidson,Rob Swart,Jiahua Pan Pdf
Some issues addressed in this Working Group III volume are mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, managing biological carbon reservoirs, geo-engineering, costing methods, and decision-making frameworks.
Understanding Farmers' Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa by Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo Pdf
Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on South Africa. In particular, rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. This research uses a "bottom-up" approach, which seeks to gain insights from the farmers themselves based on a farm household survey. Farm-level data were collected from 794 households in the Limpopo River Basin of South Africa for the farming season 2004-2005. The study examines how farmer perceptions correspond with climate data recorded at meteorological stations in the Limpopo River Basin and analyzes farmers' adaptation responses to climate change and variability. A Heckman probit model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model are used to examine the determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. The statistical analysis of the climate data shows that temperature has increased over the years. Rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, with the previous three years being very dry. Indeed, the analysis shows that farmers' perceptions of climate change are in line with the climatic data records. However, only approximately half of the farmers have adjusted their farming practices to account for the impacts of climate change. Lack of access to credit was cited by respondents as the main factor inhibiting adaptation. The results of the multinomial logit and Heckman probit models highlighted that household size, farming experience, wealth, access to credit, access to water, tenure rights, off-farm activities, and access to extension are the main factors that enhance adaptive capacity. Thus, the government should design policies aimed at improving these factors.
Gender, Development, and Climate Change by Rachel Masika Pdf
This book considers the gendered dimensions of climate change. It shows how gender analysis has been widely overlooked in debates about climate change and its interactions with poverty and demonstrates its importance for those seeking to understand the impacts of global environmental change on human communities.
Author : David Maddison Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 53 pages File Size : 51,8 Mb Release : 2007 Category : Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems ISBN : 8210379456XXX
The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa by David Maddison Pdf
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. Those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. Further, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. There are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in some countries. Although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation, those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. Few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure, or market accessibility as problems. Those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. Although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation.
Sarah M. Gardner,Stephen J. Ramsden,Rosemary S. Hails
Author : Sarah M. Gardner,Stephen J. Ramsden,Rosemary S. Hails Publisher : Cambridge University Press Page : 407 pages File Size : 55,8 Mb Release : 2019-05-02 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781107067622