Fiscal And Social Impact Of A Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation In Djibouti

Author : Paloma Anós Casero,Ganesh Seshan
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Accounting
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Fiscal and Social Impact of a Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation in Djibouti by Paloma Anós Casero,Ganesh Seshan Pdf

Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.

Author : Paloma Anos Casero
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1290703451

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Fiscal and Social Impact of a Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation in Djibouti by Paloma Anos Casero Pdf

Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.

Author : Paloma An??s Casero,Ganesh Seshan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:931673974

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Fiscal and Social Impact of a Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation in Djibouti by Paloma An??s Casero,Ganesh Seshan Pdf

Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.

Author : Lars Berge,Irma Taddia
Publisher : libreriauniversitaria.it ed.
Page : 546 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2013
Category : History
ISBN : 9788862923637

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Themes in Modern African History and Culture by Lars Berge,Irma Taddia Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 286 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780821374061

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The World Bank Research Program, 2005-2007 by Anonim Pdf

This pocket-sized reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries includes key indicators on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. The volume helps establish a sound base of information to help set priorities and measure progress toward environmental sustainability goals.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 1136 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Statistics
ISBN : MINN:31951D02740454Z

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Index to International Statistics by Anonim Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 496 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105132147286

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Korean Economic Review by Anonim Pdf

Author : Daniel Lederman,Marcelo Olarreaga,Lucy Payton
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Commercial policy
ISBN : UCSD:31822034962019

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Export Promotion Agencies by Daniel Lederman,Marcelo Olarreaga,Lucy Payton Pdf

The number of national export promotion agencies (EPAs) has tripled over the past two decades. While more countries have made them part of their national export strategy, studies have criticized their efficiency in developing countries. Partly in reaction to these critiques, EPAs have been retooled (see ITC 1998 or 2000, for example). This paper studies the impact of existing EPAs and their strategies based on a new data set covering 104 industrial and developing countries. Results suggest that on average they have a strong and statistically significant impact on exports. For each $1 of export promotion, the paper estimates a $300 increase in exports for the median EPA. However, there is heterogeneity across regions, levels of development, and types of instruments. Furthermore, there are strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as EPAs are concerned, small is beautiful.

Author : Boniface Essama-Nssah,Peter J. Lambert
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Crecimiento economico
ISBN : UCSD:31822034962035

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Measuring the Pro-poorness of Income Growth Within an Elasticity Framework by Boniface Essama-Nssah,Peter J. Lambert Pdf

Poverty reduction has become a fundamental objective of development, and therefore a metric for assessing the effectiveness of various interventions. Economic growth can be a powerful instrument of income poverty reduction. This creates a need for meaningful ways of assessing the poverty impact of growth. This paper follows the elasticity approach to propose a measure of pro-poorness defined as a weighted average of the deviation of a growth pattern from the benchmark case. The measure can help assess pro-poorness both in terms of aggregate poverty measures, which are members of the additively separable class, and at percentiles. It also lends itself to a decomposition procedure, whereby the overall pattern of income growth can be unbundled, and the contributions of income components to overall pro-poorness identified. An application to data for Indonesia in the 1990s reveals that the amount of poverty reduction achieved over that period remains far below what would have been achieved under distributional neutrality. This conclusion is robust to the choice of a poverty measure among members of the additively separable class, and can be tracked back to changes in expenditure components.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Economic assistance
ISBN : UCBK:C077559080

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World Bank Research Program by World Bank Pdf

Author : United Nations Library (Geneva, Switzerland)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2006-11
Category : International relations
ISBN : MINN:31951D02729575Q

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Bibliographie Mensuelle by United Nations Library (Geneva, Switzerland) Pdf

Author : Emmanuel Skoufias,Joseph Shapiro
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Education
ISBN : UCSD:31822034961979

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Evaluating the Impact of Mexico's Quality Schools Program by Emmanuel Skoufias,Joseph Shapiro Pdf

The authors evaluate whether increasing school resources and decentralizing management decisions at the school level improves learning in a developing country. Mexico's Quality Schools Program (PEC), following many other countries and U.S. states, offers US$15,000 grants for public schools to implement five-year improvement plans that the school's staff and community design. Using a three-year panel of 74,700 schools, the authors estimate the impact of the PEC on dropout, repetition, and failure using two common nonexperimental methods-regression analysis and propensity score matching. The methods provide similar but nonidentical results. The preferred estimator, difference-in-differences with matching, reveals that participation in the PEC decreases dropout by 0.24 percentage points, failure by 0.24 percentage points, and repetition by 0.31 percentage points-an economically small but statistically significant impact. The PEC lacks measurable impact on outcomes in indigenous schools. The results suggest that a combination of increased resources and local management can produce small improvements in school outcomes, though perhaps not in the most troubled school systems.

Author : George E. Peterson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Land use, Urban
ISBN : UCSD:31822034962001

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Land Leasing and Land Sale as an Infrastructure-financing Option by George E. Peterson Pdf

Municipal land sales provide one option for financing urban infrastructure investment. In countries where land is owned by the public sector, land is by far the most valuable asset on the municipal balance sheet. Selling land or long-term leasing rights to land use while investing the proceeds in infrastructure facilities can be viewed as a type of portfolio asset adjustment. This paper shows that in China many municipalities have financed more than half of their high rates of infrastructure investment from land sales, for periods of 10 to 15 years. Much of the remaining investment has been financed by municipal borrowing against the collateral of land values. Other countries also have turned to land sales and leasing for infrastructure finance. From a local perspective, land sales have the advantage that they typically are free from the intergovernmental restrictions that require higher-level approval for increases in local tax rates or user fees and that restrict local government borrowing. However, financing municipal infrastructure investment through land sales creates special risks that are not recognized in most intergovernmental fiscal frameworks. One danger involves the use of proceeds to finance operating budgets. Risk exposure is exaggerated by the highly volatile nature of urban land markets and evidence that in some countries urban land values in 2006 reflected a real estate bubble. In the past, Hong Kong, a jurisdiction that has relied heavily on land-leasing to finance its infrastructure budget, has seen land sales fall to zero at the bottom of the real estate cycle. The greatest financial sector risk stems from municipal borrowing based on inflated land values offered as collateral to banks. Sound intergovernmental fiscal management will require tighter regulation of municipalities' financial leveraging of land assets to avoid excessive risk taking by local governments.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2012-11-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475578379

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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf

The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.

Author : World Bank Group
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2017-01-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464809514

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World Development Report 2017 by World Bank Group Pdf

Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.