Fiscal Policy And Economic Cycles In Oil Exporting Countries

Author : Aasim M. Husain,Kamilya Tazhibayeva,Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : IND:30000087928341

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Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-exporting Countries by Aasim M. Husain,Kamilya Tazhibayeva,Anna Ter-Martirosyan Pdf

This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2019-05-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498315999

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Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu Pdf

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2010-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451962536

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Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.

Author : Stephen Snudden
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2013-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475513387

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Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil-Exporting Countries by Stephen Snudden Pdf

Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.

Author : Mr.Vito Tanzi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 1990-06-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557751713

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Fiscal Policy in Open Developing Economies by Mr.Vito Tanzi Pdf

Based on papers presented at the 44th Congress of the international Institute of Public Finance, this book, edited by Vito Tanzi, deals with public finance and macroeconomic policy in open, developing economies, with case studies of Chile, Mexico, Turkey, Korea, and the Arab oil exporting countries.

Author : Mr.Alberto Behar,Mr.Armand Fouejieu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2016-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475535389

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External Adjustment in Oil Exporters by Mr.Alberto Behar,Mr.Armand Fouejieu Pdf

After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.

Author : Benn Eifert,Alan H. Gelb,Nils Borje Tallroth
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Fiscal policy
ISBN : MINN:31951D019406949

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The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy and Economic Management in Oil-exporting Countries by Benn Eifert,Alan H. Gelb,Nils Borje Tallroth Pdf

Author : Mauricio Villafuerte
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : IND:30000111484444

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Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle by Mauricio Villafuerte Pdf

Author : Amir Sadeghi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2017-12-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484335390

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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries by Amir Sadeghi Pdf

This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.

Author : Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Ms.Sheila Bassett,Alejandro García
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1994-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822019112838

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Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries by Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Ms.Sheila Bassett,Alejandro García Pdf

Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.

Author : Amir Sadeghi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2017-12-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484336274

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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries by Amir Sadeghi Pdf

This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 299 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2012-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616352462

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World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Author : Mr.Armand Fouejieu,Sergio Rodriguez,Mr.Sohaib Shahid
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484361573

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Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought by Mr.Armand Fouejieu,Sergio Rodriguez,Mr.Sohaib Shahid Pdf

This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current multipliers have declined in recent years, capital multipliers are larger than current multipliers, which implies that reducing (less productive) current spending will help limit the adverse impact of such measures on growth.

Author : Mr.Tetsuya Konuki,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2016-08-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781475529777

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Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte Pdf

Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.

Author : Mr.Gaston K. Mpatswe,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba,Mr.Robert C. York
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2011-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463902162

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The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region by Mr.Gaston K. Mpatswe,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba,Mr.Robert C. York Pdf

This paper examines fiscal cyclicality in the CEMAC region during 1980-2008. The issue has attracted very little empirical interest but is important if fiscal policies are to play a role in mitigating external shocks that exacerbate economic cycles across the region. We assess whether fiscal policies across these six countries have been procyclical using panel data to elaborate our analysis. Like in other sub-Saharan countries, total public expenditure in the CEMAC is found to be strongly procyclical. This is most pronounced for public investment, which overreacts to output growth with elasticity above 1. We further find that institutional weaknesses and poor governance partly explain this behavior. In contrast, the existence of an IMF-supported program can be a counterbalancing influence in attenuating this bias.