Fiscal Policy Sustainability In Oil Producing Countries

Author : Ms.Sheila Bassett,Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Alejandro García
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1994-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451855852

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Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries by Ms.Sheila Bassett,Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Alejandro García Pdf

Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.

Author : Claire Liuksila
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1291212868

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Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries by Claire Liuksila Pdf

Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2010-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451962536

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Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.

Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2019-05-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498314749

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Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu Pdf

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.

Author : Steven Barnett,Rolando Ossowski
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Fiscal policy
ISBN : UCSD:31822032032328

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Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-producing Countries by Steven Barnett,Rolando Ossowski Pdf

Author : Mauricio Villafuerte
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : IND:30000111484444

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Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle by Mauricio Villafuerte Pdf

Author : Nigel Andrew Chalk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 1998-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000053124719

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Fiscal Sustainability with Non-Renewable Resources by Nigel Andrew Chalk Pdf

This paper seeks to answer the question "what constitutes sustainable fiscal policy in an economy where wealth is derived predominantly from a non-renewable resource?" In particular, the focus is on oil-producing countries. This issue requires an examination of fiscal policies in an explicitly dynamic framework because the current fiscal stance imposes constraints on future fiscal policies. For example, an oil producers fiscal position, as typically measured by the ratio of overall deficit to GDP, can look quite sustainable either fortuitously, because of a temporary rise in the oil price or, if unconstrained by OPEC quotas, because of a deliberate increase in production. However, higher production has consequences beyond the current period since it speeds the depletion of the resource which in turn places greater constraints on future fiscal decisions. In such an economy, conventional fiscal indicators can be deceptive in describing the sustainability of the underlying fiscal position, particularly in the face of volatile world commodity prices

Author : Wojciech Maliszewski
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2009-06-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1451872739

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Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment by Wojciech Maliszewski Pdf

The paper presents numerical simulations of various fiscal rules for oil-producing countries. Welfare implications are sensitive to the choice of the social welfare function, initial conditions, and non-oil growth prospects. The distribution of non-oil wealth is important for countries with relatively low oil reserves. Corrections for adjustment costs and uncertainty with respect to oil prices should be applied carefully. While avoiding sharp changes in the fiscal policy stance may be appealing, it is not necessarily optimal if the initial position is unsustainable. Ad hoc rules are shown to perform poorly. The analysis abstracts from several issues critical for developing a practical policy advice and should not be treated as a complete framework.

Author : Daria Zakharova,Paulo A. Medas
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2009-03-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1451872038

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A Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries by Daria Zakharova,Paulo A. Medas Pdf

This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.

Author : Ms.Misa Takebe,Mr.Robert C. York
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2011-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463902872

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External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries by Ms.Misa Takebe,Mr.Robert C. York Pdf

In the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of "sustainability" is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion - Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo - using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.

Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513525907

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The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto Pdf

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

Author : Mr.Jeffrey M. Davis,Ms.Annalisa Fedelino,Mr.Rolando Ossowski
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2003-08-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589061756

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Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries by Mr.Jeffrey M. Davis,Ms.Annalisa Fedelino,Mr.Rolando Ossowski Pdf

Countries with large oil resources can benefit substantially from them. However, despite their huge natural resources, many oil producers have had disappointing growth, widespread poverty, and continuing vulnerability to oil price and other external shocks. Fiscal policy can play a central role indetermining the extent to which a country benefits from its oil wealth. This book brings together studies that provide analysis and findings on fiscal policy issues in oil-producing countries from a diverse international perspective. A key focus for the authors is how to manage oil resources in a way that contributes to a stable macroeconomic environment, sustainable growth, and poverty reduction.

Author : Robert York
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1308966897

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Fiscal Vulnerability and Sustainability in Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries by Robert York Pdf

Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In this paper we limit the analysis to the experience, outlook, and longterm fiscal policy considerations for eight of the world's oil-producing countries in sub- Saharan Africa. Because we are interested in gauging their fiscal vulnerability and sustainability from the angle of managing exhaustible oil wealth, we focus on the non-oil primary balance as the relevant indicator of how initial conditions and resource endowments can influence long-term considerations in several different models of fiscal rules.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2007-05-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498333719

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The Role of Fiscal Institutions in Managing the Oil Revenue Boom by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

This paper examines the fiscal responses of oil-producing countries (OPCs) to the oil boom through 2005 and the role of special fiscal institutions (SFIs)—oil funds, fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility legislation (FRL), and budgetary oil prices—in fiscal management in OPCs, and draws some general lessons.

Author : Ludvig Söderling,Martin Petri,Manal Fouad,Hanan Morsy,Wojciech Maliszewski,Martin Hommes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034756544

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Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East by Ludvig Söderling,Martin Petri,Manal Fouad,Hanan Morsy,Wojciech Maliszewski,Martin Hommes Pdf

Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark.