Fooled By The Winners

Author : David Lockwood
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
Page : 317 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2021-11-09
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781626348813

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Fooled by the Winners by David Lockwood Pdf

Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Author : David Lockwood
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2021-10-19
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1632994445

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Fooled by the Winners by David Lockwood Pdf

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2008-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781588367679

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Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Author : United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Small Business. Subcommittee on Activities of Regulatory Agencies
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 1432 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1970
Category : Competition
ISBN : STANFORD:36105119642200

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Investigation of "preselected Winners" Sweepstakes Promotions by United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Small Business. Subcommittee on Activities of Regulatory Agencies Pdf

Investigates use of sweepstake promotions, their fairness to both contestants and small businesses, possibility of fraud (including mail fraud), and impact of promotional mailings on postal system. Includes results of evaluation of contests conducted, and examples of promotional materials, v.1; Includes responses to committee questionnaire on sweepstakes practices from companies using sweepstakes promotions, v.2.

Author : Bill James
Publisher : ACTA Publications
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2011-03-15
Category : Sports & Recreation
ISBN : 9780879466084

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Solid Fool's Gold by Bill James Pdf

Since he first began publishing his Baseball Abstracts in the 1980s, Bill James has constantly challenged conventional wisdom by asking simple questions like, "Is that really true?" or "What if we looked at the question this way?" He has sparked a virtual revolution in the way the game of baseball is understood and played, from how players are evaluated or positioned to whether or not they should attempt to bunt or steal a base. In Solid Fool s Gold James continues his lifelong work with new analyses of: Hot pitchers, clutch pitching, and "late career" players The predictability of RBI A better way to organize the minor leagues The 33 best starting rotations and the worst teams of all time The best pitching matchups of the 1980s (and 2010) How the "Expansion Time Bomb" will affect the Hall of Fame But it is not just baseball that draws James inquisitive eye. He discusses the growing expectation for tips and decreasing effectiveness of advertising; his new method for measuring rainfall; the counterproductive use of physical stop lights and red-light cameras; and the statistical inefficiencies of the federal Transportion Security Administration. James wonders how Buck O Neil would have related to his ancestor s cousin (Supreme Court Justice James Clark McReynolds), proposes whimsical rules for Olympic NASCAR Racing, and poeticizes about Ricky Weeks and WikiLeaks. He compares the chances of a particular-size town producing a Justin Verlander or a William Shakespeare, imagines Roger Maris apologizing in heaven for having beaten Babe Ruth s single-season home run record, and explains how to "battle expertise with the power of ignorance." As a bonus, he includes one of his seminal articles from The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1983 titled "The Law of Competitive Advantage" and looks at how it has held up over the intervening years.

Author : Robert W. Bly
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2003-04-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780471467724

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Fool-Proof Marketing by Robert W. Bly Pdf

Make Your Business Thrive in Any Economy From bestselling author Bob Bly, this easy-to-read, hands-on guide offers fifteen methods for maximizing business performance in any economy. Depression and recession are real fears for businesses, but every industry has its ups and downs regardless of the economy. In response, Fool-Proof Marketing presents proven techniques for reversing any sales decline and developing business-generating ideas for sustaining momentum when business is good. Fool-Proof Marketing offers hands-on advice, including: Personal strategies, from harnessing positive thought to gearing up for massive action, finding time for marketing during a boom, and maximizing downtime Time-tested marketing strategies for finding new customers and generating new leads, orders, and sales Proven business strategies for cutting costs, improving efficiency, and adapting your operating procedures to the current business climate The latest customer service trends and methods for building customer loyalty, increasing customer retention, and maximizing lifetime customer value With Bob Bly's simple and effective marketing strategies, you'll find new sources of revenue, cut costs, improve your customer service, and create stronger relationships with your clients. Even if your business is currently on track, you'll find creative ways to streamline your organization and prepare for unexpected problems. Don't just watch your business dwindle--make your organization stronger through these proven techniques for making the most of your marketing dollar.

Author : Siegbert Scheuermann
Publisher : Babelcube Inc.
Page : 139 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2019-12-14
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 9781071525388

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Fool's Trap Niceness: How you can stay friendly without being exploited by Siegbert Scheuermann Pdf

"Fool's Trap Niceness: How you can stay friendly without being exploited" We learn from an early age to be polite and nice to others. Many of us have been tricked by the environment into turning the other cheek rather than defending ourselves against impertinence. And that in a dispute the wiser one gives in until he is finally the stupid one. We should however in our own interest - be both friendly and fortified, - be helpful, but also be able to say no, - be open for others but also take our own needs seriously, register, and try to enforce them. "Fool's Trap Niceness" is a guidebook for all "nice" people, who don't say or say too seldom, when they are disturbed by something. - neither at home to the partner, the friends, acquaintances or the children, -and still at work with colleagues, the boss or their own customers or employees. Those who prefer to "clench their fist in their pockets" and get angry with a stomach ulcer instead of saying in a friendly and determined manner: "Not like this!" Here you will find a source of ideas and a helper if you don't want to be undercut and exploited in the future. The brevier "Fool's Trap Niceness" provides you with background information as to why "Nice is the little sister of Sh*t", why a healthy and far-sighted egoism is better and more beneficial for all involved in the long run. In addition, the concrete examples and discussion guides will help you to practically implement the demonstrably most successful strategies in the world. The content has been developed from personal experience and the work of 25 years in behavioral and communication training with thousands of participants. Basis are the articles of the author in the Blog: www.hirnschrittmacher.eu Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator

Author : Fredrik Backman
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 688 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2022-09-27
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781501163180

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The Winners by Fredrik Backman Pdf

A breathtaking new novel from the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Anxious People and A Man Called Ove, The Winners returns to the close-knit, resilient community of Beartown for a story about first loves, second chances, and last goodbyes. Over the course of two weeks, everything in Beartown will change. Maya Andersson and Benji Ovich, two young people who left in search of a life far from the forest town, come home and joyfully reunite with their closest childhood friends. There is a new sense of optimism and purpose in the town, embodied in the impressive new ice rink that has been built down by the lake. Two years have passed since the events that no one wants to think about. Everyone has tried to move on, but there’s something about this place that prevents it. The destruction caused by a ferocious late-summer storm reignites the old rivalry between Beartown and the neighboring town of Hed, a rivalry which has always been fought through their ice hockey teams. Maya’s parents, Peter and Kira, are caught up in an investigation of the hockey club’s murky finances, and Amat—once the star of the Beartown team—has lost his way after an injury and a failed attempt to get drafted into the NHL. Simmering tensions between the two towns turn into acts of intimidation and then violence. All the while, a fourteen-year-old boy grows increasingly alienated from this hockey-obsessed community and is determined to take revenge on the people he holds responsible for his beloved sister’s death. He has a pistol and a plan that will leave Beartown with a loss that is almost more that it can stand. As it beautifully captures all the complexities of daily life and explores questions of friendship, loyalty, loss, and identity, this emotion-packed novel asks us to reconsider what it means to win, what it means to lose, and what it means to forgive.

Author : Larry Cooney
Publisher : Christian Faith Publishing, Inc.
Page : 236 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2022-06-20
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781685172008

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Gallant Fool by Larry Cooney Pdf

"My solution was to keep marching forward, a gallant fool. I was most angry at this fool's seemingly unstoppable march." Gallant Fool examines the painful subject of carrying emotional wounds into Christian leadership. It follows the author's life in ministry and toxic relationship with shame and anxiety through starting a church, peaching and leading a congregation, managing staff members at Gospel missions, and working with authority figures like board members, a CEO, and other pastors. Ministry requires faith; shame and anxiety corrode it. Living in a paradox this way is a burden. The author's burdens followed him into his faith in Christ and stayed with him through his career and marriage. He now realizes that for years, he believed and preached a Christian message that often worked against bringing peace and resolution. The book contains sixteen short essays and ten chapters to describe carrying this burden and an eventual resolution, which the author describes as Christ's deliverance through a process of awareness, acknowledgment, and acceptance. Cooney makes the point that Jesus offers relief to anyone carrying burdens, and he delivers his children regardless of the nature, duration, and magnitude of the burden; that's because God delivers us by grace through faith, a message that is familiar and at the same time elusive for its simplicity and refusal to credit anyone for a successful deliverance, except God. Gallant Fool offers hope by putting the spotlight on where it belongs: God and his grace.

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Editeurs divers USA
Page : 1570 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780399590450

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Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Author : John Megre Shields
Publisher : KDP
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2024-05-22
Category : Travel
ISBN : 9781095323182

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The Journal of An Uncultured Fool by John Megre Shields Pdf

A young wanderer on the threshold of adulthood scribbles events involved in his personal perspective progression via exposure to multifarious novel external environments. Travelling from the lows to the highs of the natural and economical worlds, a wider lens through which to view the vicissitudes of existence is acquired.

Author : Avalyn Hunter
Publisher : Eclipse Press
Page : 790 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Pets
ISBN : 1581500955

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American Classic Pedigrees (1914-2002) by Avalyn Hunter Pdf

In a monumental and important work for the Thoroughbred industry, author and pedigree researcher Avalyn Hunter provides extensive pedigree analysis of every American classic race winner from 1914 through 2002.

Author : Berrich36
Publisher : XinXii
Page : 542 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2021-04-16
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781005618049

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Fool's Year by Berrich36 Pdf

Sonya turns 30. A rented apartment, eternal dissatisfaction with weight, work as an assistant, hopeless love for the boss and complete loneliness - there is nothing to rejoice at. Desperate, she makes a promise to herself to improve her life within a year. Let’s started! In her dreams, she sees a prince on a white horse, taking her to a beautiful castle on the top of a hill ... But every date turns into disaster ... in the fight against excess weight, weight stubbornly wins ... and the new boss just takes out the brain! Meanwhile, Sonya has a new neighbor - 22 years old, blond, sloven ... Contains obscene language. This book is written based on real events. All coincidences with real-life people and bosses should be considered not accidental.

Author : Dave Milbrandt
Publisher : Ambassador International
Page : 169 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2021-07-13
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781649601742

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Fool's Luck by Dave Milbrandt Pdf

What an unexpected delight. The concept is fresh and original, the writing solid, the story - well, I'm still smiling. Thomas Locke, Bestselling Author When high school teacher Myles Bradford wins the Powerball lottery, he decides to do something truly unexpected: run for President of the United States. Bradford is eager about the opportunity, but his family clearly is not. With little time to sway them to his side, he's thrust into running a quarter-billion-dollar nationwide campaign, complete with cross-country flights and road trips, expert staff, and armed security. But like most dreams, Bradford soon finds that what he imagined is completely different from what is real. Thrust into the spotlight, he faces attacks from newfound political enemies and false accusations while striving to climb the ladder of success. As Bradford gets closer to achieving his dreams, danger lurks on the home front. As his attention is pulled farther away from the things that matter most, Bradford may learn that even success has its price.

Author : Damien Dwyer
Publisher : Balboa Press
Page : 487 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2020-08-25
Category : Literary Collections
ISBN : 9781504322065

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April Fool's Diary by Damien Dwyer Pdf

The book is a two-part diary. The first part starts in early 2012 and covers a year towards the end of the author’s working life as a doctor. The second part covers a four month period in 2019, by which time the author has retired and is facing some of his own health challenges. The diaries are a mixture of detailing some of the everyday trivialities of ordinary existence, coupled with short forays into more serious events, and seemingly random excursions into contemplation of some of life’s deeper issues.