Forecast And Solution

Author : Ike Jeanes
Publisher : Ike Jeanes
Page : 804 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Nuclear nonproliferation
ISBN : 0936015624

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Forecast and Solution by Ike Jeanes Pdf

EVERYONE'S GUIDE - FORECAST & SOLUTION introduces new, easy-to-use statistical methods so that the reader can answer the questions: How long will nuclear peace tend to continue? And, what can be done to extend it further? Dietrich Fischer, a past MacArthur Fellow at Princeton, was emphatic: "This is an original & highly readable contribution to the most important issue facing humanity today - surviving the nuclear threat. Jeanes combines lucid common sense with mathematical rigor in this landmark work. Anyone with an interest in having a future should read this work." Similarly, another distinguished scholar & author in the field declared, "It was more than interesting: it was completely fascinating." The general literate reader can assess when a nuclear use (small or otherwise) would tend to occur at probabilities from 1% to 99.9%, & what precisely can be done to forestall such use. Jeanes debunks deterrence theory, illustrates consequences of proliferation, & provides a unified explanation for warfare, conventional & nuclear. A comprehensive work - ethical, political, historical, analytical. 100+ Graphs & Tables, 1,500+ footnotes. TOLL-FREE, 24 hours-a-day, credit card line (800) 448-3330; Publisher: (800) 446-0467.

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 419 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2016-01-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119224563

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : Roland Stull
Publisher : Sundog Publishing, LLC
Page : 942 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2018
Category : Science
ISBN : 0888652836

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Practical Meteorology by Roland Stull Pdf

A quantitative introduction to atmospheric science for students and professionals who want to understand and apply basic meteorological concepts but who are not ready for calculus.

Author : Lewis Fry Richardson
Publisher : Legare Street Press
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2022-10-26
Category : History
ISBN : 1015594182

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Weather Prediction by Numerical Process by Lewis Fry Richardson Pdf

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

Author : Tim Palmer,Renate Hagedorn
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-10
Category : Science
ISBN : 1107414857

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Predictability of Weather and Climate by Tim Palmer,Renate Hagedorn Pdf

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Author : Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2009-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781849802161

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The Making of National Economic Forecasts by Lawrence Robert Klein Pdf

In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

Author : G Marchuk
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-02
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9780323157469

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Numerical Methods in Weather Prediction by G Marchuk Pdf

Numerical Methods in Weather Prediction focuses on the numerical methods for solving problems of weather prediction and explains the aspect of the general circulation of the atmosphere. This book explores the development in the science of meteorology, which provides investigators with improved means of studying physical processes by mathematical stimulation. Organized into eight chapters, this book starts with an overview of the significant physical factors that are instrumental in enriching the theoretical models of weather prediction. This text then examines the system of hydrodynamic equations and the equation of heat transfer related to large-scale atmospheric processes. Other chapters consider the quasigeostrophic approximation model, which is the basis for concepts of the dynamics of atmospheric motions and instrumental in establishing the basic features and laws of evolution of meteorological variables as applied to large-scale processes. The final chapter deals with the adjustment of the humidity field. This book is a valuable resource for meteorologists.

Author : George J. Haltiner,Roger Terry Williams
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 109 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 1973
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
ISBN : OCLC:16416988

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Numerical Weather Prediction by George J. Haltiner,Roger Terry Williams Pdf

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author : Raymond A. Assel
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Ice
ISBN : UIUC:30112075637915

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St. Lawrence River Freeze-up Forecast Procedure by Raymond A. Assel Pdf

Author : Robin A. Vaughan
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 409 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789400905092

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Microwave Remote Sensing for Oceanographic and Marine Weather-Forecast Models by Robin A. Vaughan Pdf

The power of microwave remote sensing for studying the oceans of the world was demonstrated conclusively by the SEASAT mission in 1978. Since then, no further satellite-flown instruments have been available to provide further data of this type. However, the proposed launch of ESA's ERS-1 satellite will lead to a new set of active microwave instruments being flown in space in 1990. Even though similar data has been obtained from aircraft-flown instruments SAR, scatterometers, altimeters etc. - a great deal of activity has been taking place to develop the necessary expertise in handling and analysing such data when it comes on-stream from ERS-1 and from subsequent satellites. It was against this background that the scientific Affairs Division of NATO again agreed to sponsor an ASI in Dundee in 1988. Its purpose was to review existing knowledge of the extraction of marine and atmospheric geophysical parameters from satellite-gathered microwave data and to enable scientists to prepare themselves and their computing systems to utilise the new data when it becomes available. The importance of the data is largely as input parameters to assist in the fitting of boundary conditions in large computer models. The course was concerned more with the non-imaging instruments, that is with passive radiometers, altimeters and scatterometers, than with the (imaging) synthetic aperture radar.

Author : Guangtao Fu,Guangheng Ni,Chi Zhang
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 498 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2019-04-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783038977384

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Adaptive Catchment Management and Reservoir Operation by Guangtao Fu,Guangheng Ni,Chi Zhang Pdf

River catchments and reservoirs play a central role in water security, food supply, flood risk management, hydropower generation, and ecosystem services; however, they are now under increasing pressure from population growth, economic activities, and changing climate means and extremes in many parts of the world. Adaptive management of river catchments and reservoirs requires an in-depth understanding of the impacts of future uncertainties and thus the development of robust, sustainable solutions to meet the needs of various stakeholders and the environment. To tackle the huge challenges in moving towards adaptive catchment management, this book presents the latest developments in cutting-edge knowledge, novel methodologies, innovative management strategies, and case studies, focusing on the following themes: reservoir dynamics and impact analysis of dam construction, optimal reservoir operation, climate change impacts on hydrological processes and water management, and integrated catchment management.

Author : Suresh P. Sethi,Houmin Yan,Hanqin Zhang
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780387256634

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Inventory and Supply Chain Management with Forecast Updates by Suresh P. Sethi,Houmin Yan,Hanqin Zhang Pdf

Real problems are formulated into tractable mathematical models, which allow for an analysis of various approaches. Attention is focused on solutions. Provides a unified treatment of the models discussed , presents a critique of the existing results, and points out potential research directions.

Author : Thomas Tomkins Warner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 549 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2010-12-02
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139494311

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Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction by Thomas Tomkins Warner Pdf

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.