Global Catastrophes And Trends

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Global Catastrophes and Trends

Vaclav Smil
Global Catastrophes and Trends Book PDF

Author : Vaclav Smil
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 323 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2012-09-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780262291620

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Global Catastrophes and Trends by Vaclav Smil Pdf

A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years—whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends. Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a “fatal discontinuity,” a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change—in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change—and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.

Global Catastrophes and Trends

Vaclav Smil
Global Catastrophes and Trends Book PDF

Author : Vaclav Smil
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Science
ISBN : 0262283875

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Global Catastrophes and Trends by Vaclav Smil Pdf

Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change -- in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change -- and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.

The Next Fifty Years

John Brockman
The Next Fifty Years Book PDF

Author : John Brockman
Publisher : Vintage
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2007-12-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780307429070

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The Next Fifty Years by John Brockman Pdf

A brilliant ensemble of the world’s most visionary scientists provides twenty-five original never-before-published essays about the advances in science and technology that we may see within our lifetimes. Theoretical physicist and bestselling author Paul Davies examines the likelihood that by the year 2050 we will be able to establish a continuing human presence on Mars. Psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi investigates the ramifications of engineering high-IQ, geneticially happy babies. Psychiatrist Nancy Etcoff explains current research into the creation of emotion-sensing jewelry that could gauge our moods and tell us when to take an anti-depressant pill. And evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins explores the probability that we will soon be able to obtain a genome printout that predicts our natural end for the same cost as a chest x-ray. (Will we want to read it? And will insurance companies and governments have access to it?) This fascinating and unprecedented book explores not only the practical possibilities of the near future, but also the social and political ramifications of the developments of the strange new world to come. Also includes original essays by: Lee Smolin Martin Rees Ian Stewart Brian Goodwin Marc D. Hauser Alison Gopnik Paul Bloom Geoffrey Miller Robert M. Sapolsky Steven Strogatz Stuart Kauffman John H. Holland Rodney Brooks Peter Atkins Roger C. Schank Jaron Lanier David Gelernter Joseph LeDoux Judith Rich Harris Samuel Barondes Paul W. Ewald

Global Trends 2040

National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2040 Book PDF

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

The 2030 Spike

Colin Mason
The 2030 Spike Book PDF

Author : Colin Mason
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2013-06-17
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781136555114

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The 2030 Spike by Colin Mason Pdf

The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.

Catastrophe

David Keys
Catastrophe Book PDF

Author : David Keys
Publisher : Ballantine Books
Page : 441 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2000-10-02
Category : History
ISBN : 9780345444363

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Catastrophe by David Keys Pdf

It was a catastrophe without precedent in recorded history: for months on end, starting in A.D. 535, a strange, dusky haze robbed much of the earth of normal sunlight. Crops failed in Asia and the Middle East as global weather patterns radically altered. Bubonic plague, exploding out of Africa, wiped out entire populations in Europe. Flood and drought brought ancient cultures to the brink of collapse. In a matter of decades, the old order died and a new world—essentially the modern world as we know it today—began to emerge. In this fascinating, groundbreaking, totally accessible book, archaeological journalist David Keys dramatically reconstructs the global chain of revolutions that began in the catastrophe of A.D. 535, then offers a definitive explanation of how and why this cataclysm occurred on that momentous day centuries ago. The Roman Empire, the greatest power in Europe and the Middle East for centuries, lost half its territory in the century following the catastrophe. During the exact same period, the ancient southern Chinese state, weakened by economic turmoil, succumbed to invaders from the north, and a single unified China was born. Meanwhile, as restless tribes swept down from the central Asian steppes, a new religion known as Islam spread through the Middle East. As Keys demonstrates with compelling originality and authoritative research, these were not isolated upheavals but linked events arising from the same cause and rippling around the world like an enormous tidal wave. Keys's narrative circles the globe as he identifies the eerie fallout from the months of darkness: unprecedented drought in Central America, a strange yellow dust drifting like snow over eastern Asia, prolonged famine, and the hideous pandemic of the bubonic plague. With a superb command of ancient literatures and historical records, Keys makes hitherto unrecognized connections between the "wasteland" that overspread the British countryside and the fall of the great pyramid-building Teotihuacan civilization in Mexico, between a little-known "Jewish empire" in Eastern Europe and the rise of the Japanese nation-state, between storms in France and pestilence in Ireland. In the book's final chapters, Keys delves into the mystery at the heart of this global catastrophe: Why did it happen? The answer, at once surprising and definitive, holds chilling implications for our own precarious geopolitical future. Wide-ranging in its scholarship, written with flair and passion, filled with original insights, Catastrophe is a superb synthesis of history, science, and cultural interpretation.

Disasters Without Borders

John Hannigan
Disasters Without Borders Book PDF

Author : John Hannigan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780745663111

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Disasters Without Borders by John Hannigan Pdf

Dramatic scenes of devastation and suffering caused by disasters such as the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, are viewed with shock and horror by millions of us across the world. What we rarely see, however, are the international politics of disaster aid, mitigation and prevention that condition the collective response to natural catastrophes around the world. In this book, respected Canadian environmental sociologist John Hannigan argues that the global community of nations has failed time and again in establishing an effective and binding multilateral mechanism for coping with disasters, especially in the more vulnerable countries of the South. Written in an accessible and even-handed manner, Disasters without Borders it is the first comprehensive account of the key milestones, debates, controversies and research relating to the international politics of natural disasters. Tracing the historical evolution of this policy field from its humanitarian origins in WWI right up to current efforts to cast climate change as the prime global driver of disaster risk, it highlights the ongoing mismatch between the way disaster has been conceptualised and the institutional architecture in place to manage it. The book’s bold conclusion predicts the confluence of four emerging trends - politicisation/militarisation, catastrophic scenario building, privatisation of risk, and quantification, which could create a new system of disaster management wherein 'insurance logic' will replace humanitarian concern as the guiding principle. Disasters Without Borders is an ideal introductory text for students, lecturers and practitioners in the fields of international development studies, disaster management, politics and international affairs, and environmental geography/sociology.

Why America Is Not a New Rome

Vaclav Smil
Why America Is Not a New Rome Book PDF

Author : Vaclav Smil
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2010-01-29
Category : History
ISBN : 9780262288293

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Why America Is Not a New Rome by Vaclav Smil Pdf

An investigation of the America-Rome analogy that goes deeper than the facile comparisons made on talk shows and in glossy magazine articles. America's post–Cold War strategic dominance and its pre-recession affluence inspired pundits to make celebratory comparisons to ancient Rome at its most powerful. Now, with America no longer perceived as invulnerable, engaged in protracted fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and suffering the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, comparisons are to the bloated, decadent, ineffectual later Empire. In Why America Is Not a New Rome, Vaclav Smil looks at these comparisons in detail, going deeper than the facile analogy-making of talk shows and glossy magazine articles. He finds profound differences. Smil, a scientist and a lifelong student of Roman history, focuses on several fundamental concerns: the very meaning of empire; the actual extent and nature of Roman and American power; the role of knowledge and innovation; and demographic and economic basics—population dynamics, illness, death, wealth, and misery. America is not a latter-day Rome, Smil finds, and we need to understand this in order to look ahead without the burden of counterproductive analogies. Superficial similarities do not imply long-term political, demographic, or economic outcomes identical to Rome's.

Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Stéphane Hallegatte
Natural Disasters and Climate Change Book PDF

Author : Stéphane Hallegatte
Publisher : Springer
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2014-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319089331

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Natural Disasters and Climate Change by Stéphane Hallegatte Pdf

This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.

Catastrophe

Richard A. Posner
Catastrophe Book PDF

Author : Richard A. Posner
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2004-11-11
Category : Science
ISBN : 0195346394

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Catastrophe by Richard A. Posner Pdf

Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Climate of the Middle

Arjen Siegmann
Climate of the Middle Book PDF

Author : Arjen Siegmann
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 71 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2022-01-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783030853228

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Climate of the Middle by Arjen Siegmann Pdf

This Open Access book presents a multidisciplinary perspective to increase our understanding of climate policies that are rooted in the natural moral inclinations of people, families and firms. Which policies prevent a widening gap between higher and lower educated people? Which policy instruments are there, and how could they be used? What is the role of free entrepreneurship? In this book, academics from different fields have brought together their knowledge and expertise to reflect on the following three questions: How are the polarised positions on climate change of different groups related to their moral outlook, world view, tradition, cultural norms and values? What is a good distribution of responsibilities between firms, households and the government relating to climate change? What are possible avenues where the climate policies are a natural extension of moral inclinations of families and firms, such as the stewardship for the natural environment and the climate? This book will be of interest to policy and decision-makers, students of social and behavioural sciences, and those interested climate change policies and how this effects our lives

Global Catastrophes

Bill McGuire
Global Catastrophes Book PDF

Author : Bill McGuire
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 153 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9780198715931

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Global Catastrophes by Bill McGuire Pdf

"Life on Earth will come to an end. It's simply a matter of when and how. From the likely consequences of climate change to the inevitable destruction of the earth in the far future, this 'Very Short Introduction' covers a range of 'end of the world scenarios', including Greenhouse Earth, another Ice Age, asteroid and coment impact, supervocanoes, and mega-tsunami. Exploring the potential catastrophes that face the planet, Bill McGuire assesses both the probability of these events and our chances of survival. This new edition brings our understanding of global disasters and risk research up-to-date, by using recent case studies from around the world, and incorporating recent research on climate change and threats from space"--Cover flap.

Climate, Catastrophe, and Faith

Philip Jenkins
Climate Catastrophe and Faith Book PDF

Author : Philip Jenkins
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2021
Category : History
ISBN : 9780197506219

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Climate, Catastrophe, and Faith by Philip Jenkins Pdf

"[The author] draws out the complex relationship between religion and climate change. He shows that the religious movements and ideas that emerge from climate shocks often last for many decades, and become a familiar part of the religious landscape, even though their origins in particular moments of crisis may be increasingly consigned to remote memory" -- From jacket flap.

Human Cost of Disasters

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Human Cost of Disasters Book PDF

Author : United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-11-03
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789210054478

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Human Cost of Disasters by United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Pdf

The last twenty years has seen the number of major floods more than double, from 1,389 to 3,254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1,457 to 2,034. Floods and storms were the most prevalent events. The report “The Human Cost of Disasters 2000-2019” also records major increases in other categories including drought, wildfires and extreme temperature events. There has also been a rise in geo-physical events including earthquakes and tsunamis which have killed more people than any of the other natural hazards under review in this report.

At Risk

Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner
At Risk Book PDF

Author : Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781134528615

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At Risk by Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner Pdf

The term 'natural disaster' is often used to refer to natural events such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. However, the phrase 'natural disaster' suggests an uncritical acceptance of a deeply engrained ideological and cultural myth. At Risk questions this myth and argues that extreme natural events are not disasters until a vulnerable group of people is exposed. The updated new edition confronts a further ten years of ever more expensive and deadly disasters and discusses disaster not as an aberration, but as a signal failure of mainstream 'development'. Two analytical models are provided as tools for understanding vulnerability. One links remote and distant 'root causes' to 'unsafe conditions' in a 'progression of vulnerability'. The other uses the concepts of 'access' and 'livelihood' to understand why some households are more vulnerable than others. Examining key natural events and incorporating strategies to create a safer world, this revised edition is an important resource for those involved in the fields of environment and development studies.