Global Implications Of Lower Oil Prices

Author : Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2015-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513532417

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer Pdf

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Finance, Public
ISBN : 151352125X

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by Anonim Pdf

"The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The Staff Discussion Notes (SDN) finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position."--Abstract.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Government publications
ISBN : UCR:31210024772913

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Effects of Lower World Oil Prices by Anonim Pdf

Author : Lars Matthiessen
Publisher : Springer
Page : 217 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 1982-06-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781349063611

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The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the World Economy by Lars Matthiessen Pdf

Author : Joan Pearce
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 120 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2018-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317209850

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The Third Oil Shock (Routledge Revivals) by Joan Pearce Pdf

First published in 1983, this book a number of collects the essays about the effects of a sustained period of low oil prices. The opening chapter describes how oil prices have impinged on other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits, in the short and long term, of low prices. The following three chapters deal with different groups of countries and indicate clearly that for none of them do lower oil prices have unequivocally positive or negative effects — a situation examined in the chapter on the international financial system. The last three chapters analyse the shifts lower prices are likely to produce in relations among the groups closely involved in the oil market.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2017-01-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475572360

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao Pdf

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Author : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Mr.Mehdi Raissi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2015-12-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513509846

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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Mr.Mehdi Raissi Pdf

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

Author : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,M. Hashem Pesaran
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016-11-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475552034

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,M. Hashem Pesaran Pdf

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.

Author : Nadine Pahl,Anne Richter
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2009-04-16
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9783640303045

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Oil Price Developments - Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses by Nadine Pahl,Anne Richter Pdf

Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply - and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.

Author : Joan Pearce
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 109 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 071020079X

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The Third Oil Shock by Joan Pearce Pdf

Author : Howard V. Rogers
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Commodity exchanges
ISBN : 1784670332

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The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets by Howard V. Rogers Pdf

Author : Naoyuki Yoshino,Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Publisher : Springer
Page : 143 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2016-03-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9784431557975

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Monetary Policy and the Oil Market by Naoyuki Yoshino,Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary Pdf

While oil price fluctuations in the past can be explained by pure supply factors, this book argues that it is monetary policy that plays a significant role in setting global oil prices. It is a key factor often neglected in much of the earlier literature on the determinants of asset prices, including oil prices. However, this book presents a framework for modeling oil prices while incorporating monetary policy. It also provides a complete theoretical basis of the determinants of crude oil prices and the transmission channels of oil shocks to the economy. Moreover, using several up-to-date surveys and examples from the real world, this book gives insight into the empirical side of energy economics. The empirical studies offer explanations for the impact of monetary policy on crude oil prices in different periods including during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008–2009, the impact of oil price variations on developed and emerging economies, the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Japanese economy incorporating energy prices, and the macroeconomic impacts of oil price movements in trade-linked cases. This must-know information on energy economics is presented in a reader-friendly format without being overloaded with excessive and complicated calculations. enUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>

Author : Ms.Malika Pant,Mr.Martin Mühleisen,Mr.Alun H. Thomas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2010-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455202201

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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels by Ms.Malika Pant,Mr.Martin Mühleisen,Mr.Alun H. Thomas Pdf

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2005-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498331777

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Oil Market Developments and Issues by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

The discussion in this paper of the causes and consequences of recent oil price increases, and the appropriate policy response, is framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterize the oil market. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. The difficulty of predicting long-run supply and demand creates uncertainty about future prices. Further, even current supply and demand data are lacking, which results in additional uncertainty. These features of uncertainty and volatility of prices make it difficult to reach simple conclusions about how oil producers and consumers should respond to price changes.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Energy industries
ISBN : OCLC:10214896

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Effects of Lower World Oil Prices by Anonim Pdf